rashbre central: who owns the board?

Tuesday, 26 March 2019

who owns the board?


This 'Parliament takes control' twist is most likely to revert to gaming the outcome again.

If some strategising is applied then the moves become more obvious, particularly when some of the sixteen vote options really apply to the Political Declaration, rather than the Withdrawal Agreement.

Keeping No Deal (crash out) as the default option (even after it was voted down) means that the non-binding multi-vote outcomes by Parliament can be overruled. Most of the options amount to a grey rainbow.

Listen now for the phrases like 'It's a bad deal but I will reluctantly support it,' and 'The law of the land' linked with 'The will of the people'.

It's a simple move by the power seekers to reposition 'The one thing I will demand' to something less significant, as a way to go from 'have cake and eat it' to 'half a loaf better than no bread at all.'

Labour may decide to impose a whip on the supposedly free-votes, which can keep the full greyness in play, creating an ongoing unresolved chaos. That's more about their leadership's stress-behaviour driven cavalier desire not to solve Brexit but to force a resource-squandering General Election.

The seven or so votes to be selected from 16 are additionally a mix of cardinal and ordinal preferences, (i.e. utility choices creating value mixed with time sequencing options) so there can still be much confusion even as the votes take place.

It's because the planned vote choices create dynamic inconsistency. That's the situation where a voter's/MP's best plan for some future period will not be optimal when that future period arrives.

It creates a conundrum for those trying to vote with the agreed choices, because they are interrelated, include implicit hooks, and some have knock-on effects, all which influence the downstream outcomes.

Such a dynamically inconsistent game/vote is 'subgame imperfect'.

It presents a most likely scenario that by chicanery, the 'MV3 WA May deal vs Crash Out' will persist. It could be levelled up by changing the default from 'Crash Out' to 'Revoke', although Department for Exiting the EU said tonight : 'It remains the Government’s firm policy not to revoke Article 50.'

Instead, through brinkmanship it becomes increasingly likely that the Withdrawal Agreement gets accepted and we get have another minimum five years of Political Declaration negotiations.

No comments: