down selecting brexit voting options and simulating the outcome

I feel a bit sorry for the renegade masters trying to work out the down-selection to be used in the next round of Brexit vote.

Just for fun I set up a simple model of the 16 options and then added some voting columns so that I could simulate possible outcomes.

Instead of Conservative and Labour, I used reduced numbers based upon removing the ERG and TIG and creating them as separate entities. I then used a lossy version of the votes from the remaining two main parties (for example 249 Conservatives *0.7 as a voting bloc for one of the outcomes). This is weird voting because it is effectively unconstrained except where whips are used.

After sorting the results, which are purely based upon my own shaky modelling, I get:

1. A deal with a Customs Union (81%), or and EEA/EFTA without customs union (75%) or Common Market 2.0 (61%). These three results were akin to the Labour Plan, although the actual votes for Labour Plan in my model were only around 47%. It's all a bit late now though, isn't it - although I suppose it will be quoted as an example of something for the Political Declaration. That's the next stage, and one that Guy Verhofstadt is already suggesting could be ratcheted into something more binding.
2. To respect the referendum result (69%), even at the expense of a No Deal (64%). To keep Theresa May's bluff to prevent Brexit from sliding off the table. I personally don't agree with this outcome.
3. A unilateral right of exit from the backstop (47%). Not sure how this could really work? Wishful thinking?
4. Revocation instead of No Deal would be stopped by Labour whip (31%). Otherwise it would be around 57%. Same problem withe the entirety of Revoke, which could be stopped by a Labour whip, purely to add to chaos. Revoke is the position being requested by those who have petitioned (5.8 million) and/or marched (1 million last Saturday), but it isn't being given much headspace with the hardcore parties - who ignore the 2 year delta since the lied-to will of the people decision.
5. Second Referendum gets a low score(24%)

Now my quickly created POV model isn't much, compared to the pre-vote modelling by the strategists in the various camps. But they also want to get ahead of the outcomes, to plan the next moves.

D4 damager, with the ill behaviour, as some might say.