rashbre central: reality control

Wednesday 4 September 2019

reality control


I'd forgotten that Jacob Rees-Mogg hosted a champagne party to celebrate the Brexit defeat of Mrs May, back in January.

"ERG chair invited ‘relieved’ Brexiter MPs home for drinks after May’s historic defeat," ran the headlines. I don't recollect that he was booted from the Conservatives for being disloyal?

Then, if I go even further back, to November last year, I can see the paper presented to Parliament by the Prime Minister at the Command of Her Majesty. I dug around in the statistics of this at the time.

But, as Mr Gove has said, "People have had enough of experts". Redolent of "Don't confuse me with the facts"?

I decided I'd have another look at that old paper, ahead of Sajid Javid's Spending Review. The old paper still makes interesting reading, having modelled around 100 scenarios for each of several likely Brexit outcomes.

This expertly-produced paper, charts No Deal on the left. Notably worse than all of the other outcomes it shows a 7.6% reduction per capita of GDP, compared with Remain. I added the red line across the scenarios to emphasise the progressive worsening across the scenarios. Let's see. No Deal is the one that Boris has been promoting, and anticipating through his (virtualised) negotiation strategy.

I thought of my red line and curve fitting it to that picture of Rees-Smug demonstrating how not to be a leader of the house. I had to flip the Mobbster to make it fit - it's okay though, his Pop persona is practiced at being two-faced.

I subsequently discover that Andrew Adonis had come up with a better example.

I'm confused, though, now that Boris has implemented Dominic Cummings' plan for the destruction of the Tory party. It still doesn't get away from the fundamental problem that Brexit is insoluble.

Supposing we have another election and somebody 'wins' (not a foregone conclusion).

What happens next?

Will a magical unicorn solution rise on a rainbow into the sky to save us all? I don't think so.

The EU built in a fundamental principle that no one leaving should be any better off than when they were members. Her Majesty's experts have documented the same in a detailed paper.

Johnson and Gove are telling little white lies about the ongoing negotiation and the state of preparedness. Rees-Mobster is getting his right gang back together. Conservatives are being weeded from the Boris party.

I'm reminded of that £1.45 stamp issued last June. Perhaps Her Majesty was trying to tell us all something?

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