Maisie's Moonshine

There may be a High Noon pause at Maisie's Saloon, but have any lessons been learned? Mrs May keeps sneaking ways to sell her moonshine.

If she does, the next few years can be filled with attempts to negotiate the Political Declaration from outside the EU.

There’ll be the classic outsourcing move. Negotiate exit with one team and then change them for the next stage so that all verbal understandings are swept from the table. The 36-pager of the Political Declaration (8 pages of proper content - the rest procedural) will need to be much longer in order to cast certainty onto anything.

Instead we’ll be left with a set of vague unagreed statements to get us from Brexit 0.1a to Brexit 1.0. That’s against the backdrop that right from the start the new deal is guaranteed to be worse than prevailing ‘in EU’ conditions.

The clown financiers are keeping quiet about their plans to introduce a Singapore model to set up Britain as an off-EU free-state. Just like all the other secretive ploys to run down the clock, not give firm dates for votes and keep motions under wraps until the last possible minute.

Bercow’s robustness yesterday caused another GBP drop. People with bundles of shares could see this as a good thing, cheaper pound means more attractive exports. The shiftier shorters will already be cashing in.

Post ‘deal', the Chancellor will start to tinker. The £26 billion he’s set aside for crash out contingency will become a limited spending spree, although it is dubious that there’s really that much available. He’ll tweak business tax to make the UK more attractive for certain types of company as well as certain types of money processing.

Without a sheriff in town the next stage is where the dubious financiers' real Ker-ching happens.

time for the ballad of Maisie's saloon

It's getting more like the Moonshine Saloon nowadays around at Maisie's Parliament.

I'm wondering that if you can't win a card hand legitimately, then maybe a few dollars could help things along?

And if that's not enough then maybe add an extra seat to the table? I guess we'll need to get used to hearing about block grants, Stormont locks and devolved Cabinet ministers over the next few weeks. Maisie runs the saloon just how she pleases; change the rules anytime to suit.

Meanwhile croupier Phil remains tight-lipped about more confidence and supply money, even when asked three times. I could hear that little red red rooster crowin'.

I've been along to see outside the saloon - my pictures below. It's still confusingly factional, with sporadic shouting and no-one listening to anyone else.

Come to think of it, there's little difference inside. The Erskine May rulebook doesn't amount to a hill of beans in these circumstances. The rules say you can't vote again on the same thing.

No problem, the get-around is to slightly tweak democracy.

Even when the formal document is locked, the idea of adding an amendment gives Maisie as many attempts as she likes, each one technically different.

It's a clever ruse.

That way there can be a third vote on the same matter, once they've rustled sufficient posse to ensure it can win. Even better, why not secretively control the date of the vote and keep it on a cliffhanger until the last moment when everything has been secured?

A blend of whipped tories, pork-barrelled DUP members and complicit hard right mercenaries operating to get to the next stage.

It hasn't happened yet, but that seems to be the plan, unless Mr Speaker stops it. Come to think of it, Maisie would probably attempt prorogation to reboot Parliament if that happened.

Forget the Wild West, this is the Wild Westminster. No wonder the Big Ben clock hides its face.

Daisy Jones and The Six

Sunday. One thing I said I wanted to do today but realised I couldn't.

Float in a warm, sunlit swimming pool looking up at a cloudless sky, maybe with a cool drink on hand.

In fairness, I did that last weekend, and the one before, and the one before that, but we can still dream.

This time I'll have to put up with sunshine and a clear blue sky, reading a novel. Life is still good.

The novel is Daisy Jones and the Six, by Taylor Jenkins Reid.

I'm a bit of a sucker for 'band on the road' type books, enjoying Jennifer Egan's A visit from the Goon Squad, Sylvia Patterson's I'm not with the band, Mick Farren's Give the Anarchist a Cigarette. Similarly with some of the movies - Almost Famous, and that slightly undercooked Roadies series (I'd have watched a sequel).

The current book is slightly experimental. Not to the level of Egan's novel, but this one uses a kind of interview style, more like one of the old magazines of the 70's era being described.

Each section starts with about 500 words of italicised intro, then jumps into an interview format. I wouldn't want to read too many books like this, but it works well for this particular unfolding story.

There's some feel-good generic positioning at the start. It's hardly spoiler because it also gets referenced in the cover flaps. Teenager goes to Sunset Strip. Meets fledgling rock band. Starts writing songs. Appears on stage with band doing a cover. Yikes, it could almost be A Star Is Born?

What makes it interesting are the hooks being built into the narrative. There's going to be sparks, tension, romance and heartache as well as the rock-n-roll from the band.

Yes, and I can tell it will be Access All Areas.

ides (March)

Julius Caesar was warned about this day in 44BC and despite looking over his shoulder it didn't end well for him.

A different script doesn't change the ending although in other politics there's political robotics determining that one result isn't enough.

A surfeit of voting opportunities shows how alternative democracy (maybe should have a z instead? - democrazy?) can allow the same Meaningful Vote to be exercised three times. Increase the threat level until the politically desired answer is provided.

The crazy robot doesn't see the irony of three votes on the same thing, when the Referendum was given one fact-free vote to guess the best outcome. Rinse and repeat.

In the wings the toff and buffoon are ready to pounce whilst the frog-faced MEP holds court insulting the EU27 leadership to attempt to stop an extension.

Not 'beware the ides', so much as 'beware the latin speakers': "Latine loqui qui hodie cave"

What's the correct response now?

My hovercraft is full of eels?

Or Parklife?

unicorn, duck or flamingo?

I could have gone for the slightly startled looking white unicorn, but somehow the combination of a pink flamingo and a yellow duck seemed more cheerful.

revoke

Yesterday provided another evening of crazy scenes from Westminster. Twiki Maybot's blown logic circuits don't help.

The correct response now is to revoke Article 50.

From Bad to Worse, ignoring the Good.
We know now that 'no deal/crashing' out is worse than a 'bad deal/The Withdrawal Agreement'. We know that a bad deal can’t be disguised by a thin wrapper of codicils.

That, fundamentally, the EU have done what they said they would and ensured that the UK leaving the EU could not be better than staying with it.

No Plan and no future
It is almost 1,000 days since the Referendum result. Despite thoughts of last minute salvation, there’s nothing new being added to the polemic by two heavily squabbling parties, fractured by their own internal troubles.

It’s not even the main game
The Withdrawal Agreement isn’t even the main negotiation. There’s the entire multi-year Political Declaration to be negotiated. That’s where the real terms emerge and yet it receives only minor airplay and discussion. After agreeing the Withdrawal Agreement, we would be locked into a further cycle of negotiations with the EU, seeking to determine the nature of our future relationship. We lose the default of EU membership, instead reverting to unreconcilable backstop provisions.

Don’t get it over the line at any cost
Mrs May just wants to get Brexit over the line, although her Government’s vision of Brexit is not able to command sufficient support. It is a Government that is not up to the task. It weaponised its interpretation of the will of the people.

There was no real attempt to build consensus, not in Westminster, not with the devolved assemblies, not with the public. Instead Mrs May’s approach has sought to marginalise Parliament. It has demonised opposition.

Avoid the worst of all worlds
The results of the Government's efforts are far short of the Brexit claims of 2016. The situation is far worse than any of the promises and far worse than choosing to remain.

Revoke.
Now is the time to bite the bullet. Parliament should feel under no obligation to accept the Withdrawal Agreement. It can legitimately vote to revoke Article 50, and retain the UK’s status as an EU Member State.

There’s only a few days left. The current default is still to crash out. Mrs May wants a third attempt to pass the sealed 585 page Withdrawal Agreement. The same document that has been voted down twice by Parliament and defined as unchangeable by the EU.

Current sleight of hand moves a cynical alternative towards a short extension of Article 50. Farage, Banks and others are trying to prevent this via stealthily approaching some of the EU bloc to get any such request quashed.

A short extension solves nothing, it just gives Mrs May more time to re-present the same storyline as last November. Whether short or long, ironically the UK would be caught up in the next round of EU elections.

Revoke. Revoke.
The better approach is to show statesmanship. Revoke Article 50. Remove all of the time pressures. Reset everything and take a year or two to rebuild a stable and stronger position. Regain some control of what is happening: In Parliament, in the streets, in business, in people’s homes. Continue to pay the net £9 billion per annum to the EU, instead of a £39 billion settlement as well as, no doubt, extra fees during any extended transition period.

Focus Parliament's energies on the UK people instead of an endless hamster wheel of Brexit.

Revoking Article 50 doesn’t have to mean it is the end for Brexit. Instead a restart could be considered in the future, based upon the knowledge of the current attempt.

Personally, I can’t see merit in restarting, but being able to offer it might provide a palatable route through the current mayhem.

Revoke. Revoke. Revoke.

13:21 Footnote: I see Amendments (c) from the LibDems and (h) from a cross party group which were proposed for today's vote were rejected by The Speaker, John Bercow. Their purpose: to revoke Article 50. Even the voting options are messed up.

white flag

busted flush

Dear Editor,

My friend is near the end of a card game and about to bet the farm on a busted flush. Is this wise? What could the next move be after this hand has been played?

Yours, TM

ps this is the hand.

Dear TM,

I think your friend may be exaggerating their hand. I suspect it is more like the one I illustrate?

If so then maybe take up a different occupation.

The card hand is too much like the one Wild Bill Hickok was playing at the time of his demise. Dead Man's Hand, I think they call it.

Yours, Editor

Dear Editor,

Thank you for the advice.

I now look at my friend's cards more closely and realise they were not quite as I explained.

The actual cards are shown below. Is this any better?

Yours, TM

Dear TM,

No.

Yours, Editor.

Brazen.

It's more than a month since I checked the brexibabble but it seems to be roughly where it was before, save a few sidebar embellishments.

Except for the ground rush effect, of course.

According to the note from Attorney General Geoffrey Cox, Mrs May's revisions don't really change anything on the sealed Withdrawal Agreement.

Notice though, that it is somewhat buried within a 'However' at Point 19. The pound has started to fall again. The whole shebang is more about Tory politics than 'the good of the people'.

It should be game over, but continued fact distortions are appearing from all sides. Some are brazen lies.

Mrs May thinks there's still all to play for with her last minute twists, and a few of the schemers with big money and power outcomes from this will continue to tilt the board to their advantage. Where there's muck there's brazen brass.

shopping. locally.

Great idea to create our local shops' loyalty initiative.

I'm in.

Get the card, enjoy our local and often unique shops.

Create some offers and find a way to make it available to visitors enjoying the area for a few days.

I'll still need some specialised items delivered by post, like the new water filter, but for other shopping a stroll around the loveliness of Topsham is highly recommended.

shopping in America bloopers 1 and 2.

There's some differences shopping in America. A striking one is the use of plastic bags. I'm used to the UK 'bring reusable bags' and a recent expedition to a wal-known chain created a "stop right there!" moment.

A problem seems to be that the plastic bags supplied are actually quite small. Additionally, in supermarkets the cashier or a cashier assistant packs the shopping for you.

They use a gazillion bags. Sometimes one or two items only in the bag. I requested a couple of items to not go in bags (washing detergent, fabric softener - the sort of things that come in big packaging).

So then, I push my trolley to the store exit.

"Excuse me!" called an official. "What are those loose items?"

I'm looking confused.

"Show me your receipt"

I did.

They hunted through to find the suspicious items which hadn't been bagged.

Yes, I'd bought them! Problem over and haveanice day.

My arguably bigger blooper was on the return flight. I usually travel with fairly minimal hand luggage. For complicated reasons on this occasion I'd a bigger hand luggage bag - though still within airline guidelines etc.

I was also pre cleared to use the fast lanes at the airport security. None of that remove belt, shoes, laptops out business. Excellent except for one thing.

My luggage came up for inspection on the screening belt. I knew it was almost empty, a few electronics, a fleece, an empty backpack, a couple of magazines.

"Anything sharp inside?"

"I don't think so"

Unzippered and inspected. All good. Then the package I'd forgotten.

A brown bag, containing a box with about 1 kilo of white powder in it.

Oops.

The outer packaging was wiped with one of those special lint cloths and then placed into an expensive looking trace detection machine.

"Ha!" smiled the security guard. "Pancake Mix. Great choice!"

We'd visited Cracker Barrel earlier in the day. They do a great pancake mix and whimsically we decided to bring some home. I'd remembered my 'hand luggage' was relatively empty and threw it in when we got back to the car, oblivious to the potential problem it might create later.

She placed it back in my bag.

"Enjoy your flight"

Blow your harmonica, son

A lazy day by the pool today after yesterday's time at the Outlet Shopping Mall. I finally got a replacement TravelPro Crew case as well as a chance to see wild alligators basking by the side of the water running through the mall.

In the evening we came back and watched some American television. More alligators and swampland as we saw the sentencing of charge dodging Paul Manafort creating the first occasion where someone has been part of the election committee for a current president and also gone to jail.

Curiously, Manafort's recommended sentence for money laundering, tax dodging, witness tampering and so on of 19-24 years was awarded at a mere 47 months, minus the 9 that he's already served. 3/19ths = 16% of the recommended minimum sentence.

Judge Ellis commented about the 'otherwise blameless' Manafort, conveniently forgetting Manafort's time as a lobbyist and strategist for brutal warlords, helping swing elections in their favour.

Although it didn't have anything directly to do with Russia, the Judge's statement after sentencing ambiguously pointed out that this trial was not about Russia. It was said in a way which Trump will try to use to dodge allegations of collusion.

I suppose this is a white collar crime by one of the Washington elite, so when the judge said the recommended sentence was excessive, he was maybe thinking about his own future as well. Alligators? Who knows? Who knows if any shadowy small hands were operating anything?

We'll see what the second set of guilty charges generates and whether it runs parallel or consecutive.

We also saw that Mr Cohen has decided to sue Mr Trump for not continuing to pay his defence bills, which was laughably part of the deal, at least until he changed to become the equivalent of a state witness. Cohen has also indicated that even his testimony to the court was 'adjusted by the small hands of someone high-up in the White House. No alligators here either?

That's just two of the myriad daily developments on the evolving topsy trumpy world here. I drive past signs like the one above every day at the moment. In local news there's been another big car smash on the nearby main road and a further single person school shooting. I actually drove past another car crash today, where someone had spun their car off the road and down into a ditch. They looked shake but alright although it'll take a truck to get the car out of the hole.

I'm again reminded of that old Freak Out album by Frank Zappa. Trouble every day. Same as it ever was.

Well I'm about to get sick
From watchin' my TV
Been checkin' out the news
Until my eyeballs fail to see
I mean to say that every day
Is just another rotten mess
And when it's gonna change, my friend
Is anybody's guess

Listen to it right through to the harmonica. I'm going back to the pool.