broken windows

Well, we are all progressively getting back to work.

My additional (failed) domestic task for yesterday was also to take down the external sparkling lights as rashbre central returns to its normal operating state.

I had a couple of irritants along the way which deflected me from my purpose.

This included the first technological failure of 2013, when the quietest household PC stopped working. It's only used for modest duties but now it's flashing lights refuse to come on at all and the whole device lies inert.

I've tried all of the usual remove power, remove battery, use a replacement power supply, reset the hardware type things but it looks as if something on the motherboard has died.

I googled the failure on the internet and it seems to be quite a common occurrence. I have already surrendered to the inevitability of buying a replacement machine rather than attempting to repair this particular piece of hardware.

So now for the new flashing lights of the slightly mysterious Windows 8...

Back to Work with Misery Bear

Thanks, T-Hedgehog, for the tip-off.

Reset the counters for 2013

Time to press the reset buttons again for another fine year.

rashbre central's year in 3 minutes video (2012)

The end of the year is the right time to do one of those bonkers videos summarising the year.

Sometimes people say they think the year has passed quickly.

I tend to disagree when I look back over all the things we've done.

Even when it's edited down, it all still looks pretty busy - and that's without showing work or shopping.

Enjoy this skittish 3 minute version of rashbre central's year. That's around 1 second for every weekday. There's some pictures from the blog and a few other stories too.

Happy New Year.

pause awhile with three jolly wheelers

A late afternoon visit to the Three Jolly Wheelers in Woodford Bridge, Essex.

It was a pub which I hadn't visited for a very long time. Someone asked me if I remembered the inside and I had to confess that I'd treated it as if it was a new location, because of the changes to the layout.

The original pub dates from around the 1830s. What I remembered was a substantially different layout which had separate public and saloon bars. The beers used to be sold at different prices depending on the level of bar decor. There had even been a small off licence tacked on to the side.

Of course, all of that has been obliterated in various modernisations, through the times when pubs had become more open plan and egalitarian. On our particular evening it was very quiet, but bracing itself for the next and densely packed New Year's Eve.

Just along the road, another Grade II listed hostelry from the 1500s hasn't survived as a pub. It used to be called Ye Olde Kings Head (yes, really), and had been a Charles Dickens inspiration for The Maypole in Barnaby Rudge.

Then Lord Alan Sugar bought it a few years ago and it is now operating as a somewhat black and gold Tudor Turkish restaurant. I guess it's handy for Lord Sugar, who lives just around the corner in Chigwell, within walking distance of the establishment.

I normally focus on 'fun going forward', but what with year end and all, it is also interesting to briefly look at 'fun going back'.

let me tell you what I want - steppin' out

We moved the operations centre for rashbre central to somewhere with a big staircase for part of the Christmas break.

It turns out that our venue was also the one where the Spice Girls broke into the party at the start of their first video.

Then someone else told me it was the same location used in one of the Batman movies and then it also turned out to be featured in Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets.

We aren't making any movies here, but will still enjoy the theatricality of the enormous staircases and magical artefacts.

Coal Hole

We had that dilemma on Friday evening. We'd found a good table in a bar but needed to be somewhere else in about an hour.

Somebody suggested we should move across to the Savoy, which was close to our mid evening destination, but I was a little concerned.

The logic was perfect; to front load the journey time and then not be worried about being late at the destination.

I was more dubious about whether we'd get anywhere to sit at the Savoy. It says 'no reservations are necessary' but can be troublesome* to get into.

We headed across in any case, did that thing where you drive along the Continental side of the street at the entrance and then found ourselves in the spacious and quiet lobby.

I think this was to lull us into a false sense of security, because as we headed for the American Bar I could see the numbers increasing and sure enough both this bar and the Thames Foyer were full.

They manoeuvred us away and suggested we try the Beaufort bar back along the corridor and around the corner. I'd already heard them say we might get standing room there, but as we entered I could see a waiter on a course to intercept us.

"No room at the Inn" was the basics of his message.

"Coal Hole?" someone suggested. We all nodded and tripped back outside and around the corner to the bustling standy-up bar along the Strand.

* including the incident without a tie, but that is another story.

unexpected time warp

Accidentally landed in a partly monochrome world today, as we found ourselves in a town which had transported itself back to the Second World War.

We'd headed there for lunch unaware of the special event and were initially bemused to see so many American and British troops from World War Two on leave, alongside civilians in 1940's clothing.

The we realised that the steam train hauled by a U Class steam locomotive from Alton had just arrived and many were disembarking for Christmas leave before the train's return trip with Winston Churchill on board.

waiting for the text message

We are in that traditional slightly bleary-eyed moment on Boxing Day*, when we've had some breakfast and are waiting for the text message to say which pub has been selected.

It will be walkable, although I'm not quite sure if that sleet is about to turn to snow.

* Boxing Day derives from giving the servants the day after Christmas Day as a day's holiday and providing them with a box of goodies to take their families. It's sung about in 'Good King Wenceslas'

countdown commenced

It's quiet here at the moment and probably will be for about the next half an hour.

I've just returned from a sunny walk between the rain showers, delivering a few cards by hand in nearby roads.

Right now I'm sitting down with a mug of tea watching the outdoor lights starting to twinkle again. I can hear distant church bells ringing out.

It's not even four o'clock but the sun is starting to set.

In a few more minutes it will start to get busy around here.

It's beginning to feel a bit like Christmas.

Happy Christmas.

Santa speed calculations and parcel tracking

I've been watching a parcel addressed to me being tracked across the globe from China over the last few days. It made good progress from Shanghai to Cologne but then seems to have slowed down a bit.

It reminded me of the Santa Calculations, which I first published back in 2006 and then updated in 2010. The world population has increased since my earlier calculations and I decided to use the 2012 world population estimate of 7.06 Billion instead of my prior calculation of 6 Billion.

To set the scene, here's the 2012 link to the Santa tracking system created by NORAD.

And my usual reminder that an ideal last minute gift is, of course, the rashbre novel - The Triangle, now also available as a Kindle download for around a dollar.

For those of you who are more interested in the technology of Santa, NORAD's FAQs provide the following:

I've again used the Joel Potischman and Bruce Handy calculations as the basis for the speed calculations, with my own adaptations:

The most notable corrections to be applied are:

- Santa delivers no gifts to naughty children (not even coal)
- Naughty to nice ratio is 1:9
- As confirmed by NORAD, one Santa distributes all of the gifts.
- There is only one family per household.
- Santa bypasses non Santa belief system houses.
- Reindeer have recently eaten fresh magic acorns.


Calculation Assumptions (2012):

- World population = 7.06 billion
- Children under 18 = 2.353 billion (Hmm may be higher)
- Global Santa based belief systems: 33%
- Max children requiring delivery therefore 784 million
- Children per household: 3.5 (may seem high?)
- Number of households requiring distribution 224 million
- Naughty to nice factor applied but not many all naughty households
- Remove all naughty households (25% 0f 10%) = 5.6 million
- Eastern orthodox using Jan 5 instead of Dec 25 = 16 Million
- Target Households = 202 million on Dec 25
- Estimated child bed time 21:00 (9pm) with 7 hours sleep.

(child sleep duration on Dec 24 may also require revision)

Gives circa 31 hours (24+7) for all deliveries
Time is 1860 mins or 111,600 seconds

Average number of homes to visit per second = circa 1810.
So average delivery per household is 552 milliseconds, which is why Santa normally appears a bit blurry (I previously thought it was the sherry)

Land surface minus Antarctica is around 79 million square miles. Distribute destinations evenly = 0.7 miles between households creating a total distance of circa 110 million miles.

So 110 million miles in 31 hours = 3.6 million miles an hour or circa 1000 miles per second or Mach 4770 at a linear speed.

This explains Rudolph's red nose because of air resistance creating around 20 quintillion Joules of energy per second, which would convert a non reindeer nose to charcoal at such energy levels. I think the acceleration and deceleration per household may also need some examination.

Luckily Santa has lots of special powers so these mere physics facts are no problem to such a superhero.

securely stickered after shopping

I seem to have accumulated a small pile of those square stickers that have little radio aerials built into them as some form of shoplifting protection. They seem to be on many products nowadays and can, irritatingly, mess up the pristine packaging of gifts.

I realise that the cost of the stickers has dropped so they can be applied to more things, but it does create that moment of truth when leaving a shop about whether something already paid for will go beep.

If they have been well-applied to the cellophane wrapping of a product, then the only way to remove them is by removing the cellophane as well. This could create an impression that the gift has already been opened.

I can't help wonder whether someone determined to steal might not just put their candidate pilfered item into something lined with metal (like one of those "stay cool" backpacks) or just something lined with tinfoil?

I suppose the surveillance cameras would spot that, but it then reduces the need for the little stickers?

Oh well.