so tired, tired of waiting

I'm just a little intrigued by the delays affecting the Florida voting from the US election.

My original reason was somewhat trivially because I'd put together my own quick home made prediction of the final vote and wanted to see how it finally played out.

I'd guessed that Florida would go Republican, but maybe hadn't predicted the 'Miami factor' which could skew the result to the Democrats based upon the Latino vote. Look at how red/Republican Florida looks, although quite a few of the red squares are quite low populations compared with the few big blue/Democrat ones like Orlando, Tampa, Fort Lauderdale and Miami.

My quick look at the projections showed the gap between Obama and Romney in Florida was around 45,000, which is why, I assume, things are taking so long to stabilise.

I notice also that Florida has a particularly large number of voter exclusions, such that almost a quarter of African Americans in Florida are not allowed to vote.

So I'm wondering if, among the virtual hanging chads, there is now an examination of 45,001 votes for their authenticity? It would make quite a difference to the final Electroral College positioning.

Nanoprogress #nanowrimo #nanolondon

Gone Typing.

hey now baby, get into my big black car

I haven't written this scene yet, but it's the part where Clare gets taken away by the people in the black car. She's been in Santa Fe and got separated from the others.

Of course the black car can't be seen by itself, so there's another one behind in the manner of all good movie plots. They can drive away together to add some menace.

And the thing is, I haven't quite figured out what will happen to Clare next, but I'll bet she will have some ideas if I don't.

One thing I've noticed in this Nano novel is that the characters are getting to stay in some pretty fancy hotels as a consequence of the story line.


Of course, I'll make sure there's a few more rustic looking venues as well. I think this barn in Durango is going to show up later and probably that red truck as well.

And I'll still make sure there's a London end to the story. Just because the characters start in Arizona doesn't mean they can't have some scenes in London as well.

And come to think of it, a diner on Route 66 would be pretty essential.

trying to predict the US election with a few pundit numbers?

Nearly all of the US election commentary on UK television say that the American pre-election polls are too close to call. I can't help thinking that everyone is worrying about whether or not the electorate turn out in sufficient quantities. Given the billions of dollars spent by the two candidates then I suppose most people should show up at the polling stations.

I thought I'd take a bunch of the data based upon the US Electoral College voting system and try to crunch it to predict the outcome. I grabbed a range of predictions from a few diverse sources including some with obvious political biases in both directions.

The first thing was to sort the various random predictions into an ascending order. Then I decided to ignore the outliers like to 440/98 split that one prediction drives. That provided a core set of results which pivoted something like a 20% probability to Romney and 80% to Obama.

My calculation gives the result to be something like 303 Obama and 235 Romney.

But hey, this is just playing with numbers.

UPDATE Weds, Nov 7th, 12:00GMT (coffee break): Well, as the morning arrived and the votes had been counted, astonishingly, I had the Obama number accurately pegged at 303. The Romney number was light though because Florida's votes were not in.

I seem to remember Florida has featured in previous voting lateness.

Whats that old joke? When will your count be ready? - How many votes did you say you need?

On this occasion, I'd assumed that Florida would tip to Romney, which would have made my forecast spot on. What I think will happen (Florida's vote count is still not in) is that actually Obama will also get Florida by about 45,000 votes. This will mean the last 29 votes go to Obama instead of Romney. Instead of 303-235 it could be something like 332-206. Therefore my calculation will be out and an even more extreme win for Obama will have ensued - probably courtesy of Miami and environs.

It will be good to see if Obama can deliver 'the best is yet to come' without the pressure of having a further fight for office. Also whether the Republicans in the House of Representatives can avoid the pettiness which can otherwise stop sensible decisions from being made.

time portal discovered in London?

I decided to try to get a bit ahead on that novel writing month thing because of work next week. It's made the last couple of days a little bit strange, but as I was a bit cold-ified in any case it meant I could blend Lem-Sip with typing.

I've even printed a google map of the route my characters are taking around part of America in my story. It bears an uncanny resemblance to some of the places I visited a while ago, which will help when I need to fill in some detail later on.

At the moment I'm trying to get the main chunks of plot blocked out and conveniently the characters are all being most helpful in directing the way to solve problems.

So I haven't had to spend time discovering time portals in London or anything similarly improbable to keep on track. And I'm secretly rather pleased that I've managed to get somewhat ahead of the targets.

Although I'm equally sure that when I eventually look back over what I've been doing, there will be some major remediation required.

But so far the need for a time portal lies dormant.

it landed outside City Hall #nanowrimo #nanolondon

I know, it looks like a ready made plot line, but it's not the one for me this year.

I've decided to hang in there with the desert caper which I originally considered for NaNoWriMo a year ago. Not that I did any work on it at the time though.

It didn't make sense for me to attempt it last time and I used the time instead to re-edit some of the work I'd produced previously. There was no point in counting the words at that time, so I quietly dropped out of the NaNoWriMo system after about a day.

This time I have started with a completely blank sheet of paper and a stuttery beginning, but now the story is up and running I can see some of the ways to drive it along.

I'm using the most basic structure ideas based around setup/initial problem/bigger problem/biggest problem/resolution/finale this time and trying to drive out the plot more than the descriptions of weather systems. As was the case the last time I wrote something, the characters all have minds of their own again.

I've genuinely surprised myself so far. Although it may be limping along with a need for many running repairs (like when I changed a character name part way through), it does seem to be stacking up word count.

Because of work commitments I've decided to blitz this first weekend to get as far ahead as I can because of the inevitable slow down as real world kicks in on Monday.

Literary masters may scorn the rapid creation approach, but I think it helps to get the creativity running and I know the subsequent edits may overturn some sizeable chunks of the initial piece. I think Hemingway had a famous quote about first drafts.

And if anyone else is seeking inspiration and wants to borrow the scene from my photograph...well I took it last week and the 'Thing' is still there - right next to London's City Hall.

split between London and Scottsdale

I've dropped the characters into Arizona this time. I decided to give them a short lived treat at a luxury spa hotel before I sling them out into the desert with all manner of problems.

Some of the smaller problems have already started. They've already got split up and at least one of them is quite the worse for wear.

I've only got the vaguest idea of a plot and was just sketching out a few ideas so that I have something to write about during the weekend.

The first 500-600 words came quite slowly, but it is picking up speed now. I'm even slightly ahead (around 4k), but I think I'll feel better if I can use part of the weekend to build up some word count.

I should really be writing it now, but this is a few minutes break whilst the kettle boils for a cuppa.

skyfall

We braved the lashing 45 degree rain, strolling zombies and caped crusaders on our way to see the new James Bond film yesterday evening.

Actually we were served by the green witch in the pizza place before heading to the late evening show and on the escalator encountered some blood streaked and very pale faced leather-clad people.

But oh, yes, the same cinema was also screening a late night Rocky Horror Picture Show.

So what to make of the Bond movie?

I don't really want to say too much about the plot, which has a suitably fast paced start, with plenty of action before the opening credits roll. We also get some good locations like Istanbul and Shanghai which feature casinos, skyscrapers, fancy bars and glittering hotels. And Bond meets his fair share of intriguing women along the way - oh and a good villain of course.

So I guess plenty of the James Bond franchise boxes are ticked. There's also some references to old school spying versus more modern interpretations. A kind of action hero meets 21st century global spook technology stripe through proceedings.

There's also some good London Town moments, with MI/SI6 on the Thames, plenty of running around Whitehall and some tube trains thrown in for good measure.

Come to think of it they are some of the exact streets I've been along today for work.

I could say more but there's some pieces best left as surprises for those that intend to see the film. I quite enjoyed it although I felt there were a few slightly lengthy scenes that slowed the pace.

I noticed they have re-introduced a small amount of the humour too, which I think adds to the enjoyment of Bond movies.

Were there some plot holes? I think so. One did sort of bug me, but I won't describe it here. Did it matter? Not hugely, I think we had a good experience watching the film as mainstream entertainment. A fitting ramp into my own scribbling as November arrives and NaNoWriMo kicks off.

waiting for the vampire bus?

Halloween is one of those occasions that seems to have grown in commercial status in England over the last few years.

It was always a distant second to the higher profile Guy Fawke's Night, where we take an effigy of the chap that tried to blow up Parliament and burn it on top of a big fire.

Perversely, I still think of Halloween as an American custom that has migrated based upon movies and sitcoms and has now entrenched itself in the supermarkets of the country.

Of course, there will be those that point out its ancient and somewhat pagan roots, and that it originally migrated to the U.S. from Europe.

I suppose the point is that the English didn't make so much of it because Bonfire Night gives a perfectly good adjacent excuse to set fire to things, make explosions and drink.

So this evening, I may be looking out for souls seeking revenge, but it will be at the cinema, watching James Bond.

leaves, colours and bags

A side-effect of my calendar getting reshuffled today was that I could make a slightly later start. With the effect of the clock change it felt doubly late. I pay it back tomorrow with a first meeting at 8am.

The clock change reminds me that this year Autumn seems to have arrived very suddenly. A few days ago everything was still green, but now it's all gone golden and chilly as the weather turns.

And in some parts of London the colours go from the trees to the pavement and into bags in a matter of days.

feet held to flames to put mudguards on winter bike

The classic procrastination situation faced me today. I'd been getting the orange bike ready for the cooler months and was well ahead of the plan until time to fit the mudguards.

I did order a set - all £9.99 worth - and they've now arrived.

As has yesterday's tiny amount of snow.

And today's white roof frost.

To the extent that I'm sitting in front of the fire warming my toes. A small confession that yesterday I walked past that builders' supply place near Borough Market and they had those 'keep toasty' type leggings and arm warmers in the window. I nearly bought some.

Instead I will be doing that biking activity known as 'faffing' later today as I finish the winterisation (?) of the orange bike.

Must.Get.Away.From.Fire.

@LondonNaNo at Mad Hatter

I've pinched today's pictures from the @LondonNaNo twitterfeed, and I can almost be spotted in the back row from today's session at the Mad Hatter.

And yep - I've decided to have another go at this National Novel Writing Month lark.

I think it will be my fifth attempt, and I've generally managed to hit the requisite 50,000 words in the month of November. Actually, I can only account for three of the stories though, so one has already received a suitably embarrassed consignment to a messy drawer.

The picture shows part of the assembled gang, which became 'standing room only' a little later. Today's launch was the second session, with a prior weekday evening one to catch 'commuting novelists'.

We also had the mix of Londoners and those from further afield including New York and Vancouver in my table's gathering.

There's something reassuring about meeting a diverse group of people about to set out on this craziness. It was also interesting to note that many had already successfully completed prior years. Most didn't know one another at this kick-off session, but it is already clear they we will all encourage one another along. The NaNoLondon web site is here and the London Regional forum is here.

Of course we won't start writing until the 1st of November. Some already have plots, diagrams and characters but I still have nothing.

Which reminds me, I must start banking sleep.

(p.s. that was about 230 words)