down to zero

Caught out again.

There I was editing the Raven novel, and I noticed that the main characters go into a restaurant as part of one of the sub-plots. Its a real restaurant and brilliantly positioned for what they are doing. The only problem is that it is a Wagamamas, which is another of the chains which have announced significant closure as a result of the virus. The related chains are Frankie and Bennies and Chiquitos, as the demise of the high street and retail parks march on.

Of course, these detail changes to a novel are nothing compared with the changes to the UK economy, which is predicted to tank by 10%. Over 1.8 million people are reported to have claimed Universal Credit in the United Kingdom, which suggests over 10% unemployment.

Getting paid by the government up to the day when the 80% government thing stops doesn't bode well, and the UK government must already know this. Pre COVID, the unemployment rate had been under 4% in UK, and already people were struggling, because of soaring underemployment, and non-enforcement or evasion of labour rights.

Shuttered shops and bust businesses doesn't bode well for these people, yet it isn't really getting commentary. Instead of Labour picking at Boris' latest statistics error, it could frame the post COVID situation with some intelligent questioning.

I can remember when working for a pan-European firm that the workers' councils and similar systems in other countries, (eg Germany, France and Italy) were enough to keep people employed significantly longer than in the UK.

UK job security laws require that an employer gives reasonable notice of at least one to twelve weeks before dismissal. An employer cannot, at any time, dismiss an employee in a way that breaches the basic ‘duty of mutual respect’, and after two years’ work, an employer can only dismiss for a fair reason as assessed by an Employment Tribunal. Also, after two years’ work, employers must give a redundancy payment. For significant cuts, most companies hire one of the axemen consultancies to come in and assist the process. Roll out the 'compromise agreements'. It's not quite George Clooney's 'Up In the Air' but significantly along those lines.

Job security, workplace democracy, and labour law matter: they are the best defence against depression, and of prosperity. Otherwise, we will be hitting a depression after the pandemic. Maybe not as serious as in the Trumptonian USA, but deep cuts nonetheless. Now we see an emerging crisis of confidence afflicting business, forcing them to plan for a future of mass unemployment, and emerging from fear of collapsing demand. It's especially the fat cats among the retailers protecting their own cash at the expense of everyone else (mentioning no names). The fear exists if the government fails to lay out the principles for a credible recovery plan - something one would expect the Conservatives to be all over - except they are not, but then, neither are the opposition.