Time to invoke the "it was all a dream" clause?

Like Pamela Ewing waking to find Bobby in the shower, perhaps the whole Article 50 thing could be turned into a dream. It's certainly running along nicely as a nightmare at the moment.

This morning we had Philip Hammond using a 15 year projection to show UK in a slightly worse position post Brexit. It strikes me as a bit of a dodge.

Fifteen years is far enough away to mean that most people won't really take any notice of it at all (2033). There's also enough leeway to ensure that plenty of excuses can be wheeled out to change the end position.

What is more interesting to me, is the effect on the way to this 'slightly worse'. No one is asking that question.

I can project a few things though. The reason Philip Hammond had to go to 15 years was because it was the earliest point that things could be made to look acceptable again.

Whiteboard representation of scenarios: If it gets worse to start with, then it has to somehow get better faster to even meet at around 15 years out. Its spreadsheet trickery really.

Prior to hitting Phil's point of just slightly worse, we get large outward payments to the EU. Judicial uncertainty. Trading uncertainty. The government's own projection are now showing a 2.5% worse position using the best from Theresa May's negotiations. It drops to 9% worse off under a crash out scenario.

Yes, the 'will of the people' voted for something worse than they were currently experiencing at the time of the referendum. I see the Bank of England has weighed in now.

A crash out next year would create an 8% worse GDP. Higher unemployment. A 15% worsening in the GBP to USD.

Curiously, the government will get two goes at this. A vote, which will crash. A leadership challenge, which will achieve nothing. A further vote with some cosmetic changes to the current conditions.

The ongoing fostering of the big lie. The lie that Brexit is in some way triumphantly settled. It's just political posturing. But the political posturing is working. People are bored. They want the government to 'just get on with it'.

I can't say "Ready, Fire, Aim" because it was appropriated in no time flat by some smug consultants.