rashbre central: more snakes than ladders

Friday, 23 November 2018

more snakes than ladders


I'm wondering how snakes and ladders the Theresa May Playbook looks for the next few weeks?

The nearby cast of clowns don't want the job of sorting it all out. They just want power. Maybe time to cue an emergency Prime Minister? Meanwhile, the opposition are trying to get an election. However, a swerve by the Tories would be for Theresa May to deliver something, declare 'job done' and hit eject.

Whatever shenanigans are about to occur, they will just add time into the process and create more market ripples.

The fat cats have already hedged. A cynical example is the slippery Rees-Mogg, who created a Dublin fund for his Somerset Capital Management investment business to provide improved and ongoing access to the EU. He's only one of many to do this, with Milan, Frankfurt and Paris (as well as Dublin) all popping up in recent company moves. Ironically his own company warns of the dangers of uncertainty during the Brexit transition. Ker-ching.

I scratched together a quick flow chart to help understand the options going forward. It'll be out of date by the time I hit enter, but it does serve to show that it is impossible to come out with a good deal.

The debate is once again about the least worst option. A politician worth their salt would stand to be counted if they thought that the 'will of the people' had accidentally led the country into a cul-de-sac. Sorry , I should say 'dead end' now (even if I'm thinking brick wall).

We can have worse trading with goods, worse trading with services, still be subject to CJEU justice, lose some of our security arrangements, create market uncertainty which affects share prices (a.k.a. future pensions) and mess up the GBP currency exchange. We get some new limits on freedom of movement, but that is also a two edged sword and could start to affect our own UK citizen travel at the end of the transition period. We wrap our new hopes and aspirations into wish fulfilment language. I'm not sure that will work with the negotiators of Brussels.

Ironically, Britain has maintained many unique characteristics from inside the EU. We drive on the opposite side of the road to Europe. We have our own currency. We measure things in miles and pints. Out electricity system uses different plugs and sockets from mainland Europe. I could go on.

Here's my chart. Click through for the readable version. Or not.



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