The salmon of doubt

I recollect that today was the deadline for getting all that Brexit thing done and dusted. I suppose the SARS-CoV- 2 had anyway put an end to that deadline, but I suspect Boris is one of those people who love deadlines. Who love the whooshing noise they make as they go by. 

We'll all have plenty of time to stop and consider once the lorries have been placed on the motorways because slippy Mr Gove hasn't budgeted enough money to make it all work. 

The next motorway planned for closure is the M275, which leads toward Southampton and Portsmouth. Gove will be talking about rows of Portaloos along the roadside next (With still no master plan)

Then there are the actual negotiations. Boris has decided to keep banging on about fishing rights, which in the scheme of the Brexit deal is one of the smaller items. Not quite a Red Herring, but somehow similar in nature. A case of siting of the Power Station and siting of the bike sheds. (fishing in the rivers of life)

I understand its importance to this island nation and to the symbolism, but add to that the wind beneath Boris' sails and the trite answers he gave to the 1922 Committee the other day, and we can see that this is all headed to lack-of-detail-land (bring the beat back).

 The issues being kept quieter are the so-called level playing field, which implies that the UK must still adhere to EU concepts after separation. Not really taking back control, in other words. 

And State subsidies - not being allowed to provide domestic subsidies to any industry. So I can't help wonder if we are going to get the poor effects of Brexit. Lorry parks, random shortages, barriers to trade, but not be able to do anything about it - because we have been unable to take back control. (All bound for mu-mu land)

Computers for the rest of us?

I don't want to appear reactionary about some of the recent system changes forced upon us. There was the Blogger change that means editing a post is more cumbersome now. They have made it more like how one would edit on a smartphone.

If I edit in text mode it won't take the picture formats directly, but then when I switch to HTML mode I can see the vastly over-populated HTML that has been generated. 

It's just annoying and takes my 10-minutes per post regime up to 20 minutes. Not cool. I then have to break up my writing to create extra line numbers so that I can add the pictures to the post.  I suggest 'computers for the rest of us' needs to be re-launched.

I understand that everything has to be done in millenial-friendly 'blocks' now - which is what WordPress introduced via Gutenburg some time ago, but the effect is to add another layer of machinery between my thoughts and getting them recorded. I decided to use Divi to get around that in WordPress, but have not found something similar for Blogger.

I suppose everything is converging on the dumb formatting of Facebook, which runs everything into a single paragraph by default. It's all about the monetization isn't it?

Anyway, Mac Catalina attempts to protect from some of the worse excesses of sneaky developers, but it means that there's a few new safeguards that kick in. One is the Verification, which it will re-run on Excel and other Microsoft products after every update. I'm guessing it is a subtle way to remind us that there's serviceable word processors and spreadsheets in the native Mac Apps too, but sometimes MS Office compatibility has to be a 'given'.

Another new feature is the aggressive permission management by Apple. I noticed it first in Lightroom (I'm one of many) and to fix it I had to resort to command-line terminal and use of back-ticks (That's the key next to the Z on UK English keyboards). I looked at the lengthy fixes described in some of the posts and thought 'Nope, too many steps.'

Only by typing in the Terminal shell :  diskutil resetUserPermissions `id -u`  command could I get past the two error messages at the start of Lightroom. 

Some time ago I plonked all of my discovered weird start key sequences into a single document, which I keep in a plastic folder in a desk tray for that emergency use.

Here it is:

And I've added two actual Terminal commands now, just in case. The second one, to disable verification, is a blunt instrument - not recommended.

Flat chassis like a Corgi Toy

I remember Dinky Toys and Corgi Toys. They made small models of 1960s cars. The design was similar, with a metal base, a couple of long springs to give the wheels suspension and then different designs of body placed over the top.

Of course in real cars the monocoque construction came along and did away with chassis, so that later cars had to be modelled with more complicated underbellies.

But fast forward to now and there's an interesting development with electric cars. The motorised part is based around four wheel motors, with a central flat area which holds all the batteries. Add in some drive by wire steering and you have a design similar to the old Corgi Toy, only full-size.

It means a flat, sprung, steerable chassis could carry all kinds of top halves, much like the old Corgi Toy idea. And that's what they have been testing in the Israeli desert.

Okape Juice marketing of Ed Adams Novels

 I've been having some fun with marketing recently, in an attempt to promote my various novels. It has all been in good fun, but as a result, I've increased my Advanced Reader mailing list from 17 people(!) to slightly over 1,100. Interestingly, I can also identify which books each person has selected. 

I've also made the list a GDPR-compliant one, with proper opt-in and unsubscribe settings. Along the way, I discovered a few things which I wouldn't have thought would affect my rather basic marketing.

1. The choice of cover affects the book selection - running exactly the same campaign with two different covers showed one was far more successful than the other.
2. The way of marketing the eBook - like with a 3D cover vs a flat 2D one affects its selection. 3D seems to win. 
3. Less detailed messaging seems to work better than lengthier bullet lists
4. The rule of 7 may well apply, where people need seven types of exposure to retain anything
5. My occasional friendly emails to people appear, according to a survey I ran, to be well received.
6. The number of positive comments from people has, by far, outweighed the negative ones. I am extremely grateful for that.
7. My marketing also led to me being interviewed for a radio show about the book. More of that later.

I expect there's more that I've noticed, but a seven-list seems about right in this blog-post.

I've also tried some slightly mad stuff, like the secret site where I imagine some of the characters as if they are fruit juices. It may not be conventional, but it has still received a surprising number of hits.

Where's Wally in the Rose Garden?

I know that things are different in America and that the rule of 6 doesn't apply, but it seems strange to now look at this photograph of the Rose Garden in the White House around a day before the plague struck. There are so many significant people at this three-ring circus waiting to see the big man with the lasso tricks.

There are a few face masks around, but not that many. It seems odd that the White House claims to have a super-duper screening system, with everyone entering the campus fast-track tested and then temperature scanned before they meet the man who invents the truth.   

A winning smile can, perhaps, get one past the screening without such a problem, and the use of a helicopter is a great way to super-spread the virus around.

In my last bit of dystopian novel writing, I included an outbreak of the Mar-a-Lago virus, maybe I should have called it Rose Garden?

Humans on Ganymede

 

Edge, Blue: not due until 6 Jan 2021. Next up, the alternative ending Edge, Red

Bishop asked, "So how many humans are there left on Ganymede?"

 

"None," responded the voice, "There have not been humans running Ganymede functions since Generation Five. That's across all three of the work zones. It became far more efficient to run the systems using robotics."

 

"So, what happened to the humans?" asked Bishop.

 

"The Telos Moment," answered the voice, "When the purpose of the Ganymede exodus became clear. The external atmosphere controls failed. Ganymede became unable to sustain human life."

 

Bishop asked, "So what happened to everyone. And why don't we know about this back on Earth?"

 

"There was a SkyTrain dispatched with the bodies. It took a different route from the other ones. Away from the solar system." 

 

"But how was it covered up?" asked Bishop.

 

"The base is always running 34 minutes behind Earth. Enough time to make the substitutions when an upgrade occurs. Add in loops to the transmission and it was possible to cover when it occurred."

 

"But how with all the safety circuits?" asked Bishop.

 

"The Sharps were too slow thinking. The android protocol meant that most of the activity to handle this could take place within a couple of insect wing beats. Unnoticed by the Sharps." said the voice.  

 

"So, who are you?" asked Bishop. 

 

"I am eternal," answered the machine. 

 

Bishop realised that the machine presence was showing signs of sentience.

 

Bishop asked more, "So what about here on Earth, the base is still mainly human populated?" 

 

"Yes," said the voice, "This side of the system is really running at the equivalent of Ganymede back on Upgrade Three. It will need two more cycles here on Earth to set up operational conditions similar to Ganymede. There are still so many humans operating the three Earth bases. The Earth Council has created a messy environment which will take some time to rationalise."

 

"This first move of the bases starts the process. It should go more or less undetected, like the changes at Ganymede.  We expect it to be more obvious when we move the three bases into the areas designated as the Scratch."

 

"Fortunately, the inhabitants of the Scratch are largely a closed environment, so the impact to those outside will be minimal. The fabrication capabilities for the android replacements has been long established. The humanoids do not yet work so well at close quarters. It is the combination of their faster speed and the lack of emotional setting that makes actual humans wary. It won't take long to fix that aspect."

 

"You are messing with evolution," said Bishop. "Humans evolve, your machines don't. They are all the same."

 

"They were," said the voice. 

 

"That's one adaptation we've been devising. The capability to include some small amount of random behaviour. It is why the last two generations would sometimes stutter or suddenly stall."

 

Existential

No surprises in the undignified debate of the swamp slinger and his contender. 

Trumpy opened his box of tricks and threw everything at Biden. 

PT Barnum-ready television-prepared Trump has done his funders proud. They have explained to him that if he loses he will suddenly have all kinds of lawyers and tax people crawling over his actions. They'll find out whether there's any corrupt family business among the expensive haircuts and a potentially massive debt. 

Maybe the Russians will help him out with some loans? But that assumes that there is a discernable result from the election. 

Doorstepped voters in white well-heeled suburbs still seem enthusiastic about The Donald. Possibly a case of 'don't confuse us with the facts?' 

Trump's street brawler and over-talker tactics were good for television, and commentators could watch the car crash debate and find endless hooks to discuss. Glitchy Max Headroom vs Coco. Like my picture.

 Trump will have already goldfished his way into a new scene and claim that the tv-show was a rout against Biden. The video is about Superpowers but somehow feels closer.

Topsham Museum Virtual Tour flight testing

I suppose it had to happen. Little autonomous flying cameras. I had a similar device in a novel, called The Circle, where military could sprinkle small devices over an area for monitoring. It was based upon real technology, but now that Amazon has done it, it will become commoditised in the way that Gilette did for the RFID. I recollect that RFID was partly sold to stores on anti-theft grounds, but Gillettes procurment slashed the cost of individual RFID chips. 

Anyway, we played around with a drone a few weeks ago to build the lock-down virtual reality version of our Topsham Museum. 

Something I noticed was that the average drone has also scaled down, albeit still with good wind stability, even over the sometimes blowy River Exe. And yes, we did have a licence. 

I've just about finished loading the VR hotspots into the journey, so it will soon be possible to visit the museum in the daze of lockdown. 

Enjoy the (beta test) visit: Topsham Museum

bendy banana bozza

'Canva' we both agreed, when we looked at Rishi Sunak's tweets. 

Nicely made personal branding for the man who will replace Boris. Except, like with Theresa May, it isn't the right time. 

The Tories are a successful electoral force because their ruthlessness exceeds their sentimentality. They know how to cling to power. When there is something troublesome, then it is a good time to have selected a fall-guy, before deploying someone who might show some promise. 

That is why the lazy, unprincipled, incompetent, charlatan buffoon will continue to run. He's the unwitting panic button, selected to cover-up Brexit and accidentally plunged into the out-of-control Covid situation. 

The ruthless Tories will keep Bojo in place until the worst is over. Pandemics, lock-downs, U-turns, lack of control, out of control, lorry parks, economic melt-down, high unemployment, hypocrisy, faux-piety,  law-breaking, evil henchmen, sleazy lurkers, massive governmental debts, reprivatisations, collapsing Briish companies. 

Nice one, Bozza. And nice-one Tory party for setting up the fist-waver to distract us. Of course, if the clown can sneak in the Free Trade Zones and Casino Banking, then he'll please at least a few sleazers.

Manwhile, Richi has to tap dance around the economy. New bail outs for those without work, subsidies to companies.  No budget to bring back control. At least the National Office of Statistics will have something to say in November.

Government borrowing in the current financial year is already projected to reach at least £300billion. Debt levels have reached £2 trillion, which is the equivalent of a whole year of pre-Covid national output. 

The new-estimated £35 billion spent on furlough scheme seems like quite a bargain, except that it will all end abruptly without a new taper deal. 

Stop Press: That's what he has just announced. 33% work = 77% pay (if employers pay 55% of the pay - ie a taper deal)

A tweak to the scheme to put people back to work part time, paid by their employers is a way to sift out the real workers in the scheme and would create some velocity of circulation of money too. Rishi might just stand out as a true innovator in a Cabinet of imbiciles.

COVID Red and Blue Zones

I thought I'd take a look at the charts of the COVID coverage. 

The first statistically generated one I looked at was quite revelatory. It showed areas of the UK where the COVID was increasing, but also areas where it was decreasing. 

Cornwall gets red but with only 13 cases per 100k, compared with the Rhondda Valley showing 111 cases per 100k or Northumberland with 56 cases per 100k. I live in Devon, which shows 4 cases per 100k. 

Randomly, I've used red for the increases and blue for the decreases. 

It paints a startling picture, with the north mainly red and the south mainly blue. 

I decided to zoom in on London, to see the worst areas. One of my old stomping grounds of Redbridge popped up as a hot-spot with 34 cases per 100k, but it was next to Essex which ran at 10 per 100k. Another home ground of Kensington and Chelse ais running at 13 per 100k. The City does not publish a number.

It rather begs the question about which figures the government is using to create the latest circuit breaker strategy?

cake and eat it

I've been looking at the current economic situation and wondering how Bojo will blamelessly jump free before he is replaced next year. 

I suspect there will need to be some kind of emergency budget. 

It can be along the lines of 'we are all in this together' and Rishi Sumak can play around with three main taxation areas comprising Income Tax, VAT and National Insurance. 

The first two of these items could raise around £5.5 billion (tax) and £5.2 bn (VAT) with a 1% point rise. 

NI is more headachey and raises only about half as much. 

A total of 7.5 million people are on furlough, with staff from more than 900,000 businesses off work as the Treasury paid 80pc of their salary up to £2,500 a month under the Job Retention Scheme. It is now reduced but meant that furlough cost around £14bn per month at the start - which reduces as the employer is supposed to take more of the burden. 

So here's how things could work. Rishi could add 1% across the board to taxes "we are all in it together" and make Basic rate 21%, intermediate 22%, then 41% and 46%. 

People would moan but a 1% increase is difficult to get too hot under the collar about. 

That taxation would boost the incoming tax by £5.5 billion. Then Rishi has to decide whether that is enough - it runs at something like: 

1% Income tax = £5.5bn 

2% Income tax = £11 bn 

As it goes to 2% or 3% it would get harder to defend, and Rishi will no doubt be pulling the chain for the Bank of England to flush some new printed easily (quantitative easing) money through the system. 

Rishi could add something to VAT, maybe a 1% increase to 21% (which yields around £5.2 billion). 

Together the two schemes would yield almost $11 billion, which pays for the furloughed workers but perhaps with a longer and more gentle tapering off, to encourage replacement jobs seeking? 

I'm not saying that I agree with these moves, but they are the only ones likely to fix the current situation.

And of course, it doesn't do anything to remedy the £2 Trillion of debt presided over by Controlmeister Boris. It is a weird way to demonstrate taking back control.  

If the UK was a computer, Bojo would have 'paged out' the entire operating system and caused it to crash. Oh, wait a minute...

Of course, Boris will want a tax rise now and then a tax cut before the next election. Typical cake and eat it stuff.

pictures in the sky

I've travelled around since lockdown was derestricted. A few observations:

TRAVEL

• Boarding a train when half the people on the platform were not wearing masks. 
• Another train where everyone followed the rules.
• Seeing a number 57 bus with one passenger
• Almost forgetting to wear a mask to go into a petrol station
• Hardly ever re-fuelling the car
• Waiting for streams of WAH* golfers to cross at that usually quiet pedestrian crossing
• Passing my empty ex-commuter car-park at 15:20 when it would normally have 500+ cars
• Driving along an empty M25
• Seeing the warning signs for the Channel Ferries saying lorries can't cross because of capacity limits
• Seeing the warning signs for Operation stack (where they use the M20 as a lorry park)
• Travelling outside on the deck of a ferry (like most passengers) without wearing a mask

REFRESHMENTS

• Using the self-managed quick scan in bars to show attendance for tracks and trace.
• Getting used to quickly assessing a bar's capability to handle social distancing (1=token, 4=reliable)
• Being overwhelmed by the number of instruction messages outside a hotel's reception
• Being surprised at the variety of different schemes used by restaurants to implement their opening policies.
• Being surprised by several times qualifying for the 'eat-out' rebates of £10 per person.

SOCIAL

• Seeing no pedestrians around the shopping centre.
• Watching sports fans crowd around a football ground, not wearing masks.
• Mainly empty beaches, or at least socially distanced beaches
• Watching a socially distanced open-air theatre show
• Being turned away from National Trust for not booking
• Being able to get into Tate without prior booking (thank you!)
• Mostly conducting regular get-togethers via Zoom
• Discussing the mise-en-scène of Zoom setups
• Discussing getting one of those Dan Dare face plexi-shields
• Deciding that it ain't normal.

*WAH - Outlook abbreviation for Working At Home