Merry Christmas!

Santa Tracker and Calculations 2019 (Mach 4770)

Time to republish the Santa Calculations, which I first published back in 2006 and then updated in 2010. I'm using 7 billion as the world population.

Firstly, here's the link to the Santa tracking system created by NORAD.

For those of you who are more interested in the technology of Santa, NORAD's FAQs provide the following:

I've again used the Joel Potischman and Bruce Handy calculations as the basis for the speed calculations, with my own adaptations:

The most notable corrections to be applied are:

- Santa delivers no gifts to naughty children (not even coal)
- Naughty to nice ratio is 1:9
- As confirmed by NORAD, one Santa distributes all of the gifts.
- There is only one family per household.
- Santa bypasses non Santa belief system houses.
- Reindeer have recently eaten fresh magic acorns.


Calculation Assumptions (2014):

- World population = 7.06 billion
- Children under 18 = 2.353 billion (Hmm may be higher)
- Global Santa based belief systems: 33%
- Max children requiring delivery therefore 784 million
- Children per household: 3.5 (may seem high?)
- Number of households requiring distribution 224 million
- Naughty to nice factor applied but not many all naughty households
- Remove all naughty households (25% 0f 10%) = 5.6 million
- Eastern orthodox using Jan 5 instead of Dec 25 = 16 Million
- Target Households = 202 million on Dec 25
- Estimated child bed time 21:00 (9pm) with 7 hours sleep.

(child sleep duration on Dec 24 may also require revision)

Gives circa 31 hours (24+7) for all deliveries
Time is 1860 mins or 111,600 seconds

The average number of homes to visit per second = circa 1810.
So average delivery per household is 552 milliseconds, which is why Santa normally appears a bit blurry (I previously thought it was the sherry)

Land surface minus Antarctica is around 79 million square miles. Distribute destinations evenly = 0.7 miles between households creating a total distance of circa 110 million miles.

So 110 million miles in 31 hours = 3.6 million miles an hour or circa 1000 miles per second or Mach 4770 at a linear speed.

This explains Rudolph's red nose because of air resistance creating around 20 quintillion Joules of energy per second, which would convert a non-reindeer nose to charcoal at such energy levels. I think the acceleration and deceleration per household may also need some examination.

Luckily Santa has lots of special powers so these mere physics facts are no problem to such a superhero.

Mustique

It's a tricky decision to have to make. Whether to stay at home or travel during the Christmas holiday? And also whether to seek sun or snow, if travelling? For 2019 we waited until the deep winter to travel to the sunshine, and the previous year we were in the Austrian snow.

This time, I think we'll stay at home throughout the season, unlike our new Prime Minister and girlfriend, who have decided to winter it out with the von Bismarks in Mustique.

I know the thinking though. Mustique is far away enough from Barbados, where Simon Cowell will be wintering away in Sandy Lanes. Mick Jagger has tried to get away from it all to his adjacent private island, but now that Cowell has access to a floating gin place, there's always the thought he could turn up unannounced.

At least Boris had the courtesy to tell Mick he'd be sunning himself nearby when he was at that alleged KGB spy and oligarch Lebedev's party after the election results came in. Champagne, triple wodkas and beluga all around.

Of course, Boris is showing the common touch with his choice of holiday spot. He's a winner now and needs to be seen in the right Phillipe Starck designed bars.

The country can run itself in his absence unimpeded by any sensible opposition. Boris has set the timer on his oven-ready solution.

Cinderella and the Beanstalk - The Stand - Newcastle

Mayhem and madness as we attended the fabulous Cinderella and the Beanstalk. Two pantomimes for one! Fusion theatre? Affordable, alternative, amazing. Just a great dollop of Christmas fun, loved by cheering children and tippling adults alike.

There were baked beans jokes - one was right on the nose. There were 'look behind you' moments. There were ugly-on-the-inside princesses. Magical slippers. A rather inquisitive (SPOILER) golden egg laying goose.

The high-energy cast gave their all and had a blast; whether it was Lee Kyle's 'Giant' explanation of what to do when in a pantomime audience and of the terrible jeopardy in pantomimes, Hal Branson's quick princely beard change, whilst hunting with the magic slipper, Sammy Dobson's frequent costume changes between the Salt and Pepper sisters, or Hannah Walker's enchanting transformation from Cinderella into the belle of the ball.

Like all good pantos, there was a moral to the story. Or four different morals from the cast members. The whole thing performed in the underneath bit of The Stand Comedy Club, right in the middle of Newcastle.

Magical.

Oh, and it is still on...Right through to 30 December.

your mind and we belong together

It must be annoying for thin controller Seamus Milne to have Dominic Cummings running the Conservative Party strategy. Cummings might not believe in the Conservative way of doing things, but he plays a tidy hand when it comes to strategy.

There’s a warped humour in the way Cummings rubbishes the Party’s intentions and at the same time helps them slogan their way to victory. No wonder he’s suggesting a Great Britain Futures department, which will, no doubt contain himself in some guise or other.

Haplessly, Mr Milne set a daft strategy to fight the top 50 Conservative seats instead of defending the marginals. It led to tears and the potentially decade-long demise of the Labour Party. Milne might have liked being considered as Corbyn's brain or secret policeman and manages to dodge his way into longevity, despite those around him falling or about to be pushed.

Even the working party that has been assembled to discuss and adjudicate on the reason for failure seems ill-judged, when so many doorsteps could probably explain it in a couple of sentences.

Still, it will deflect attention for a couple of months and perhaps some will forget the dominant issues.

It is also somewhat academic now because the Clown can do pretty much whatever he likes, removing judicial powers, stuffing the Lords with supporters and tipping a few more unelected into his Cabinet.

Everyman is happy now that Brexit can get done, shares are drifting up, the pound is getting stronger, so it must be all right for some people. The turkeys voted for Xmas and are oven ready, as Dom might joke.

mendacity vs cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias

Along the Great Northern Way, through the red wall, noticing a symbolic landmark of the north as we passed Ferrybridge cooling towers.

Even they look forlorn nowadays, originally eight of them and an instant landmark, we're down to three now because the others have been demolished.

I won't look for symbols though, instead I'll now be forced to turn to the city pages to watch the next stages of the campaign unfold, unhampered by any leader-driven opposition. A case of the uppers vs the downers.

The press snapshot tells part of a story ~ on the left hand side is Carrie and to the right is the Artful Dodger. Only the Sunday Times seemed to capture the full mise en scène, maybe with airbrushed strings?

let's split this crazy joint

Can't let it get to us. Tree. Lights. Action.

aletheiometers all 'round

I've got a new new alethiometer. We're all going to need one now.

Boris 'Le Menteur' Johnson and his gangsters have been elected. 'Brexit is easy,' we're told and the pound is already climbing to new heights.

The update for the new model quite simple. Stand the old compass near to the new one and, much like an iPhone, it'll do the updates automatically.

Now, I asked it "what's happening?" and got "wild man, serpent, globe" from the first reading. It's trying to tell me that a maniac who falsifies is grasping great political power.

Surely not?

2019 and 2017 vote split

A quick scout around the statistics from the current election and the preceding one shows a few interesting things:

• Conservatives achieved an increase in vote of a little over 1%. Labour dropped about 8%.
• For Conservatives to get a seat, they needed around 38,000 votes.
• Labour need around 50,000.
• Last time it was Conservatives 43,000 votes per seat and Labour 49,000 votes per seat.
• It illustrates the leverage of the last 329,000 votes to gain an extra 66 seats for the Tories. That works out to around 5000 votes per seat tipped.

No doubt the strategists had done these type of calculations ahead of the election.

tom waits for everyman

There's a hole in the ladder, a fence we can climb
mad as a hatter, you’re thin as a dime.

Go out to the meadow, hills are a green
Sing me a rainbow, steal me a dream.

Don’t plant your bad days. They grow into weeks. The weeks grow into months. Before you know it, you got yourself a bad year.

Take it from me - choke those little bad days. Choke ‘em down to nothing.

car park fenne lily

Sitting in the train station and listening to a song about a car park.

wrapped in a pink sucker punch

I received one of those Spotify Wrapped summaries today.

It's a kind of sucker punch with the choices it's made (see what I did there?)

It is as if it took the last 2-3 albums that I played and then mixed up the tracks a bit. Here are the 30 second cuts of 'my' top tracks. There's 100 in the jukebox, feel free to scroll or play them...

Maybe I've worked it out. It'll be when I put on some chillout music whilst I'm cooking a Thai curry or something like that. Could it be when I accidentally left the Sonos running and went away for a few days?

The top selections compare very strangely with last.fm, where I used to use to track my music choices and which did a pretty good job of name-checking the right kind of bands. Regularly it would deliver a roll-call of the usual suspects. Well, my usual suspects, in any case. Not so with Spotify which must hunt around the streamed edges aligned to a marketing business model.

The wrapped cover art for my 2019 album seems to be Sigrid on a Tory pink album cover. My top track appears to be Beautiful Trash, by Lanu (ft Megan Washington) - though I'm sure I recognise that drum loop from something else?

It seems that others are just as mystified.


Maybe it is all of those long coffee mornings, when I'm listening to a playlist? Perhaps the miles of motorway driving to Absolution and Swordfishtrombone just don't get through to the hit-counter? Even my recent Billy Bragg revision appears to have gone unnoticed.

Or perhaps if it comes from my library instead of me streaming it? I don't know. I just don't know.