more snakes than ladders

I'm wondering how snakes and ladders the Theresa May Playbook looks for the next few weeks?

The nearby cast of clowns don't want the job of sorting it all out. They just want power. Maybe time to cue an emergency Prime Minister? Meanwhile, the opposition are trying to get an election. However, a swerve by the Tories would be for Theresa May to deliver something, declare 'job done' and hit eject.

Whatever shenanigans are about to occur, they will just add time into the process and create more market ripples.

The fat cats have already hedged. A cynical example is the slippery Rees-Mogg, who created a Dublin fund for his Somerset Capital Management investment business to provide improved and ongoing access to the EU. He's only one of many to do this, with Milan, Frankfurt and Paris (as well as Dublin) all popping up in recent company moves. Ironically his own company warns of the dangers of uncertainty during the Brexit transition. Ker-ching.

I scratched together a quick flow chart to help understand the options going forward. It'll be out of date by the time I hit enter, but it does serve to show that it is impossible to come out with a good deal.

The debate is once again about the least worst option. A politician worth their salt would stand to be counted if they thought that the 'will of the people' had accidentally led the country into a cul-de-sac. Sorry , I should say 'dead end' now (even if I'm thinking brick wall).

We can have worse trading with goods, worse trading with services, still be subject to CJEU justice, lose some of our security arrangements, create market uncertainty which affects share prices (a.k.a. future pensions) and mess up the GBP currency exchange. We get some new limits on freedom of movement, but that is also a two edged sword and could start to affect our own UK citizen travel at the end of the transition period. We wrap our new hopes and aspirations into wish fulfilment language. I'm not sure that will work with the negotiators of Brussels.

Ironically, Britain has maintained many unique characteristics from inside the EU. We drive on the opposite side of the road to Europe. We have our own currency. We measure things in miles and pints. Out electricity system uses different plugs and sockets from mainland Europe. I could go on.

Here's my chart. Click through for the readable version. Or not.

curing TV jitters created by LED light strips

In our last kitchen, we had a set of LED spotlights which interfered with DAB radio signals. Annoying but then we moved house before I could get around to fixing it.

No such problems here, at least not until I installed some smart LEDs into a cupboard by the television. We started to get an almost imperceptible glitch on some channels. The tuner is cable TV through a Virgin box and the minor interference only happened when the Wifi and Zigbee operated LEDs for the cupboard were switched on.

Using radio knowledge I worked out it was probably the neatly tied cables that I'd created when I wired up the cupboard. I'd accidentally made a mini transmitter. Instead of a Philips Hue for this cupboard I'd used an INNR controller, because it was (a) compatible and (b)properly modular (c) inexpensive for the 4 metre length of LED I required. The modularity meant I could get away with a very small concealed drill hole into the cabinet.

The clue to the problem is in my reconstruction of the setup above. That connector wire and the switched 24v DC into the unit were both tidily coiled instead of cut to length. I reckon they must generate a tiny amount of interference.

Time for a shield. I considered using those clip on ballast things, but couldn't find any.

Instead, Bacofoil.

Placed around the coiled wires like a Mexican food wrap, making a sort of faraday cage to keep the waves inside.

Works a treat. No more glitches and a brightly lit cupboard.

dawn ferry to tomorrow

It takes some time to work one's way around the documents of Whitehall. Often there's notes from a meeting that just say: "A meeting was held, some people attended and some stuff was discussed". Hardly minutes.

Now we have reached the Powerpoint stage for Brexit. I remember the consultants' credo "It always works in PowerPoint".

When I review something like this fresh Government PowerPoint deck, I'm drawn to the spaces. "in the spaces between the stars," as a Mersey poet might say. So what do we get?



Yes, we get a withdrawal agreement, about how to leave, but (in the spaces) not what actually comes next.

We get a set of separation issues, each with its own logo. I'm not sure how these have been prioritised although (surprisingly?) Euratom comes first. 'Spaces' seems an inadequate term to describe the things that don't get mentioned.



There's another four of these, described as 'other separation issues', but I'll summarise them using just their individual logos.



The next slide could be considered something of a stretch. It's about delivering stability throughout the implementation period. I assume stability doesn't mean the kind of 'strong and stable' environment we have right now.

Some of the ideas here could also be considered as wishful thinking.

Participation implies that the UK will be able to join in some of the EU meetings. There's a space around exactly what kind. Access to fishing rights is another area left dangling. Carry on as now until 2020 and then start an annual negotiation of fishing rights. That's with the EU unlikely to concede anything better than the rights provided during membership.

Then there's the legal/governance framework. It gets a whole slide and a special logo that shows that UK courts will 'pay due regard to the relevant decisions of the CJEU". Okay - so we're not really separated then?



Next we're on to the Protocols. Yippee some more management speak.

This is mainly the arrangements associated with Northern Ireland and the Island of Ireland. The main feature is explicit recognition in the Protocol is intended to be temporary and superseded by a future agreement. That's like another white space.

The 'uncomfortable arrangement' isn't resolved and is left until someone can solve the rest of the prime number series past 2^77,232,917 − 1.

After this area the PowerPoint switches to Political Declaration mode. In other words, everything else is tba (to be agreed).



It makes areas such as the economic partnership on goods fairly speculative.

It says zero tariffs, no fees, no charges, no quantitative restrictions, but this is political positioning, not an agreement.

If the approach to goods is speculative, then services and investment are even less defined, choosing words such as ambitious, comprehensive and balanced to define the relationship, whilst retaining regulatory autonomy.

Even as I write this I notice that from next March, European governments will access the €13bn-a-day MTS cash platform not from London but Milan. A desire to stay within EU financial markets has already inspired Refinitiv to say it is transferring its $300bn-a-day foreign exchange swaps business to Dublin. The €250bn-a-day BrokerTec repo trading operation, owned by CME Group, is moving to Amsterdam.

Plenty of white space being created in London office blocks as well as on these charts.

The slides go on to indicate that it can all be fixed in a couple of years, through to 2020. I'd say this seems very optimistic and may be a case of closing the door after the horse has bolted.

As for that couple of years concept. I'll use a different financial agreement as a comparator. Basel II/III, which is to regulate international financial settlements. Basel II started in around 2004 (before the banking crisis) and is still going strong with an implementation timetable stretching out (via the Basel III amendments) to 2022 for credit risk (and some other separated items that may drift) and to 2027 for its final parts. That's over 20 years, not including the Basel I part.

There's more on other matters including security partnerships and institutional arrangements and even a slide on areas of disagreement.

The closing section of the slide deck contains masterful slideware. It builds a new truth on top of the previous summarised political positioning.

The single logo-based "What Does It Mean?" slide. The one for the people who don't have time for the facts. Elevatorware/Liftware.



It's a 'work backwards' slide. What do we need to say? Now how do we revise some slides into a position which could support this?

It's also a highly distorted answer on a postcard which will be used to persuade Parliamentary votes, driven from this Government agenda.

I decided to make up my own preliminary version of that last slide, with a few comments.



See, I even left in the wiggly lines from PowerPoint.



And a whole lot of white space.

#oldmemes - The song "The Final Countdown" is now playing in your head

Working through a few countdowns:

34 days to shortest day
38 days to Christmas
45 days to 2019
132 days until Brexit
155 days until Easter

42 days minimum lead time to have a Conservative leadership election
90 days minimum lead time to declare and run a new election
280-385 days estimated lead time to hold a new referendum, if sanctioned

Charted like this, it looks like everything is painted into a corner.

Time to sit back and listen to the old tune by that band called Europe. Hey, wait a minute...
Do dado do do do
Doda do do dooo
Do dado do
Dado dodododo doo..

The UK: Series Finale

Any pilot will tell you that you’re only as good as your landing. It doesn’t matter how splendidly you fly through the air: if you botch the end, it counts for nothing.

Brexit is coming in for its landing, and the cabin pressure is high. Maybe a landing is a controlled crash, but just how much control has really been taken back?

There's no more time or chances for correction; the rapidly approaching series finale will be the last impression we ever have of the characters we’ve grown to love to hate.

Some fans are worried it won’t live up to the hype, but we’re here to calm your fears.

The UK: Series Finale will absolutely live up to the hype, there's already rumours of a Scandi-noir version to follow it.

So let's look at some of the ingredients of the show:

1. Time and money

First and foremost, Brexit was not a rushed production. The government had an interest in getting the season out sooner rather than later, but they allowed showrunners David "Slowrunner" Davis and Dominic "Rab" Raab enough time to work on making the finale memorable.

They had over two years to get it perfected, which is longer than even a series of Game of Thrones. There's a staggering budget well into the tens of billions and that's just for the initial exit phase.

2. Absence makes the heart grow fonder

We don’t exactly know the outcome, and most of us have even forgotten the original plot-lines apart from maybe something about a bus.

The wait has been agonizing at times, but when that iconic 585 page document hit the table, we knew we were in for another spectacle of squabbles.

Some of the main players are already barely able to contain themselves. Those EU types have been parading the hefty paperwork barely concealing a smile.

The citizens are angry, and the slogans are as witty as we'd come to expect.

We’re going to have to savour every moment we have left with these characters as they hurtle towards the end of this story.

3. At long last, expect the unexpected

And what a story it’s been. Ultimately, we’ve no idea what will happen in the closing scenes. Will goodwill win out in some form or another, and we’ll all go home happy? ... or will we?

Many are already teasing that the ending to this saga will be “bittersweet,” and those shocking twists will just keep coming. All bets are off as we enter the endgame. (Except the betting for a new Tory leader)

After all, who'd have thought that the languid David Davis would heap scorn on the very paper that was created mostly under his jurisdiction?

Or that the loathsome govesome slithery backstabby one would turn down the chance to front the work that he'd set in play in the first place?

That May's replacement and pleasantly plausible stooge for Brexit would feel forced to hit eject just at a critical moment?

You couldn't make this up. I'm pretty sure that we still don't know how this tale will end only that it's not going to be all unicorns and rainbows.

Maybe some characters will survive but others won’t, and that’s going to keep things exciting. Even that riddle-speaking 18th Century hyphenated-millionaire is still in play. He's surely one of the undead, which is going to cause complications as he lines up others for his nanny-assisted chopping block.

I should really mention the left-tinged oppositional one, but he's still dithering on the edges after his scripted season break in Cuba.

4. Towards the end
It’s true that this govenment doesn’t have a great track record when it comes to satisfactory conclusions.

Other major series like Deadwood, Rome, or Bored to Death were cancelled before they could conclude naturally, and The Sopranos had an ending that was, to put it mildly, controversial.

At the same time, this UK show has made us reexamine how we think about democracy and government.

5. Will people see some parts of the series finale coming?

I'm guessing there will still be further tricks up its sleeve.

Considering how thoroughly they’ve pretended to prepare for it - yet singularly failed to do much more than accept a dictated convoluted paper for what - after all - is only the first stage. There's a Breaking Bad quality now as the a main protagonist becomes ever more disconnected from realities.

However, the behaviours are making me wonder if this show will be canned before a subsequent follow-on series could be proposed?

It has become a show with no predictable elements, except what seems to be a spiral ever further downwards. Maybe some countries would like this kind of thing, but I'd prefer something with some light and shade. A few upbeat moments could make all the difference.

We have to decide. Is it "Set the controls for the heart of the sun"? ...or maybe we'll need to use that old Dallas ploy..."It was all a dream"?

Offer: fight club selling Britain by the pound (includes free fudge)

I suppose the idea now is to spin it positive. To make it look as if it's a good thing. That it's the best deal that the UK Government can get. To seem as if the will of the people is being carried out. To show that a project timescale has been met.

* Key Point: The EU won't have given the UK anything better than its members get. It will be worse. On principle.

* Old Key Point: The will of the people was based upon lies from both sides of the argument.

* Emerging Key Point quietly understated: The offshore funding of the leave campaign could have been illegal.

Now we get five hundred pages hiding a fudge dressed up in fancy words.

Pushing border management into a long term transition. Backstop Plus. One for attorney-general Geoffrey Cox to finagle wangle.

Chuck in a few words about "Control" but behind almost anarchic scenes there's whipfuls of impure moral suasion.

Carrot or stick? Who gets a peerage? What indiscretions won't be revealed? Come on down to Number 10 for your customised arrangement.


Ironically, the 'Rights of Englishmen' is being breached.

The new deal says there'll be money paid out to the EU and rule by the EU over UK matters without representation. I almost find myself agreeing with the Bojo the Clown on this.

Back in 1776 in the USA, the colonists wanted a local, representative government, for judicial matters and taxation. They even had a revolution against George III to settle it.

Now the UK gets Control. But it's a political control of the agenda. Rise of the maybots.

We get so-called exit options for the UK dictated by the government. They are a false choice. The over-stressed May (if she survives) will continue to be dogmatically deaf and blind to all arguments. Lock us into something with no gameplan for what happens starting 1st April.

Instead, stay in and re-elect some proper MEPs to replace the well-expensed tobacco and beer saboteurs. It's getting too much like the end of Fight Club.

Hamilton at Victoria Palace

A chance to see the amazing Hamilton at the Victoria Palace.

It's one of those shows that is famously difficult to get tickets to see and ours were purchased back in January.

The theme of 'hard to access' continues with a queue to get into the theatre (even for ticket holders), sniffer dogs, two forms of identification and that's before we even get to the bar.

The show describes the ascent of Alexander Hamilton, one of the founding fathers of the USA. He was an influencer of the U.S. Constitution, and founded the USA's financial system. Wine in the bar included The Federalist, which was a reference to his political party

The storytelling in the musical moves at a break-neck speed, summarising his turbulent orphan time in the Caribbean in a couple of lines, pausing on a few key points as he gets together with Aaron Burr, John Laurens, the Marquis de Lafayette, and Hercules Mulligan who, together, decide he has a way with words.

This leads towards his revolutionary ways, where a brilliantly played foppish King George III turns from humour to menace on a sixpence.

We learn the ten commandments of dualling, see casualties and Hamilton's contribution at the behest of Washington towards the Siege of Yorktown.

It's a full-on and nuanced libretto, often performed in a rapping style, but with a clarity and intent that keeps the audience fully involved. Although described as a hip-hop musical, there's plenty of other styles included and some quite tongue-in-cheek moments such as a rapping argument complete with a drop the mike moment.

The detailed staging is pretty much the same scene throughout, although the multi-level choreography means that I was already thinking I'll need to see this again.

It's an interesting and vibrant story told with colour-blind casting, great music and thought provoking attitudes around complex parts of what is still intertwined into modern America.

not so speedy

It was supposed to be a quick hop from Greenwich to Upminster, but the tunnels were blocked.

It all started with some emergency anti-flooding work at the Dartford Tunnel, which caused the traffic to spread back to the Rotherhithe tunnel.

A resultant 3 hours to do 13 miles, including taking various avoidance measures. A terrible mpg statistic. Then, another one and a half hours to finally reach the destination. The route showed 19 miles, although we did finally take the 25 mile route via Dartford, once the tunnel reopened.

wiring in a revenue earner

The red car had a sequence of faults recently. The rear wiper stopped working. Then the tailgate wouldn't open. Now one of the rear lights has conked out.

It's had repairs from the friendly small garage, but it is obvious that the wires to the tailgate have frayed and are failing sequentially.

I can remember visiting car production lines and seeing that wiring was one of the more labour intensive tasks in a largely automated process. Each custom assembled car had a few crates contains relevant wiring harnesses delivered and then threaded by individuals working along the skeleton vehicle.

So now it is time for a dealership repair, although they've (gulp) quoted for a new wiring harness.

We're getting it done although I'm irritated that a new modern car would have this kind of fault, which is apparently quite common across several makes of very well-known cars.

A case of deliberate revenue generation?

buying the last fan in east London

It was like a task from The Apprentice. Find a large electric fan in autumnal London.

At the start, it didn't even seem like a challenge. Local shops. Bound to have one.

Or not.

Then try online. Yes Amazon Prime showed them, but we needed it same day. Even Prime was too slow and we'd have to use a tricky address. Never mind, one of the stores in nearby Canary Wharf was showing that they had them.

We made our way along, although my misgivings that the shop would be filled with mobile phone accessories was accurate. Fan? They had one Dyson for about £400 but none of the ones in their online catalogue. Try Barking, they said.

Woof.

Then a couple more stops in Canary Wharf. All the usual suspects, but its a seasonal thing. I do get it. Fans are large and take up floor space. They impact the retail sales per square foot metric.

I briefly remembered seeing a whole pile of fans somewhere a few weeks ago, but wait. That was in Exeter.

On to our third search area and our last chance. We took the tube to Westfield in Stratford. Surely someone would have a fan?

In Apprentice terms we could have phoned around, but the reality was that listed products were not always immediately available. The fan in Canning Town (in Stock) was actually on a five day delivery.

Then we thought of healthcare. Surely some people would be hot and need cooling down? Hot and weary, we needed that treatment ourselves now.

Into Boots.

And yes. One fan remaining. The last fan in London.

Now it was ours and totally worth it.

At least we had something until we could recover the big one from Newcastle.

tweet boxes : it's a London thing

Tonight, the show is on the road in Doncaster, but then a night move south to that London Town.

First London gig is at Canada Water tomorrow, so I've been quietly looking at the SE16 and related twitter feeds as part of generating some local interest.

Some will recall that rashbre central has also been based on the South Bank, notably at Chelsea Bridge Wharf, so it was almost nostalgic to look at a few of the local activities in the adjacent Southwark.

My favourite new London phenomenon, I decided, was the repurposing of estate agent signs.

It's yet to spread, but after so many months the estate agents are supposed to move the signs but sometimes forget.

The one at the top of this post, a bright yellow number, didn't get moved and has had some minor adaptation to turn it into a nesting box.

I suppose the yellow colour will also act as a speed camera style deterrent, so a double positive from this particular endeavour. Tweet, tweet.

wordless wooooooday

Scary, but not too scary.