results rumour of second UK election on 25 November 2010?

If the Parliamentary timetable for the Queen's speech is to be believed, then Parliament should reconvene on Tuesday 18th May and the Speech would be on Tuesday 25th May.

I wonder if this will be possible given the current blip in continuity, whilst some post election introspection takes place? What's the shortest time between elections? Someone will know. I'll hazard a guess at six months, so maybe 25th November would be a round six months from the speech making and could see a new Parliament up and running for 2011?

That's enough time for parties to re-organise and perhaps a more balanced set of voting practices to be devised.

All the politicians are pointedly saying they are working for the "National Interest" now, rather than their own agendas, so perhaps anything related to improving the representation of the people could be on their minds, rather than their own self-promotion?

(Approximate votes per seat: Labour = 33k ; Tory 35k; LibDem 120k)

counting the political boundaries

I've been looking at a few of the analyses of the polls and thought I'd spend five minutes doing my own. In many scenarios the numbers yield an interesting skew to the outcome.

Because of the adjustments to political boundaries and the non-proportional voting system, there are all kinds of unexpected splits that occur if there isn't an outright winner with half the seats and an outright majority.

Before the election, Labour has 345 seats, which is a proper majority of the 646 available. With the varied swings predicted, this could drop by 75-90 seats, spread between Conservatives (mainly) and Liberal Democrat (some).

Its interesting, because with the lowest percentage of the overall votes (27%), the Labour party could still finish with the most total seats of the three parties (259).

With a more evenly balanced split with the most votes going to a mobilised Conservative party (34%) then the next to the Lib Dems (30%) and the lowest to Labour (28%), we'd still see the most seats go to Labour at 267, then Conservative at 255.

And supposing the Lib Dems managed to get the most overall votes (33%), with Conservative at 32% and Labour at 27%, then we's still see Labour with the highest number of seats at 259, and Lib Dems with around 128.

Some of this doesn't seem quite right to me.

there's always someone around you who will call

Sitting at home in strong yellow sunshine this morning, blissfully enjoying coffee and a croissant.

In the distance I can hear little musical box tings of Velvet Underground's 'Sunday Morning' playing somewhere on a distant radio.

Someone has good taste.

But next I must pack before heading to the airport to sit in seat 2F for a while.


And - just for fun - here's my (slightly cryptic) Oscar guesses: Ar i LR = MR; Ar i SR = HL; As i LR = KW; As i SR = AA(!); A F F = W-E; A D = T D K;B P = S M;C = S M;C D = T C C o B B; D = S M; D F = M o W;D S = T C o N E; F E = M; F L F = D; M = T C C o B B; M So = D t E (W-E); M Sc = D; S F A = P; S F L A = A d S; S E = W-E; S M = T D K; V E = I M (!); W A S = T R; W O S = I B; If I get them all right there has probably been a leak somewhere; otherwise its a good plant to raise viewing figures. We'll find out if my "!" are accurate.