nikki sarko

There's plenty of causerie de note about the elections this weekend in France. There's been an asssertion that as Tony Blair gets ready to leave the British premiership, a gallic equivalent arrives in the form of Nicolas Sarkozy.

The thought of anything 'Anglo-Saxon' amongst the Parisiennes may not be quite the done thing, but the other amusing discussion has been around London as the seventh French city (after Paris, Marseilles, Lyon, Toulouse, Nice, Nantes, and before Strasbourg, I presume).

I suppose the fast train links make it quicker to get from Paris to London than to Cannes, say. And the French investment bankers certainly inhabit the City of London in large numbers. But I suspect there is some French humour in the statements about the seventh city. Actually the population of London is probably larger than the rolled-up population of the top seven French cities.

So with the upcoming election, the main coverage from Britain seems to be going to Sarkozy. Front page pictures, and much discussion of his approach. The problem is that France has been broken for a long time. Low working hours (35 per week), many jobs are state related, theres high unemployment, with maybe 20% of the youth unemployed. There's a high level of state debt and a low growth rate. Generally in need of attention, and if France sneezes, much of Europe risks catching a cold.

So who else to choose between? Ségolène Royal may dish more of the Chirac same, centrist François Bayrou is reputed to favour a Germanic approach, which is probably not a strong election tactic in France. Le Pen is still hanging in there as a National Front candidate. So Sarko, Sego, Bayrou and le Pen, and I'm guessing thats the order they will finish.

And Sarkozy could win as a consequence of additive support from party followers and those anxious for reforms to put France back on the rails. And not just those leading to London.