sun bubble

We've been in a sun bubble this week. It was similar last week although suspicious in terms of the various weather forecasts we all use.

As well as the inevitable BBC weather, I use Carrot, which I find generally accurate. However, between our varied group we had about six services, which all gave different results. Maybe an 8 degree Celsius spread and vastly different predictions for rainfall.

We gambled that the weather would be better than most predictions and sure enough our luck held. Morning on the water, with a few scenic clouds.

It's even more bizarre for this area, where we are close to the Met Centre, yet BBC now uses MeteoGroup, which was originally a German system, now spreading across Europe. Fortunately we had clear skies when a passing Spitfire decided to do a barrel roll in front of us.

It turns out that a well-known prince was making a visit to the area and a small display was provided for his enjoyment.

And then the clear skies continued into the evening.

Early evening we could see the moon from the quayside and later even identify stars and constellations from outside the pub

questa mattina mi sono alzato *

I noticed a new track featuring Tom Waits. It's on Marc Ribot's new album, 'Songs Of Resistance 1942 - 2018' and is a song and tune from the Italian resistance in the 1940s - Bella Ciao (Goodbye Beautiful).

The Jem Cohen video uses more recent footage of protests.

* One fine morning I woke up early

Cold War - sewing a silken thread from dreams

I've just seen the movie Cold War, by Paweł Pawlikowski, which develops the passionate yet fractured love story of a pianist-composer and a folk-singer through the background of the Cold War in the 1950s.

Screened in 4:3 monochrome, every framing by cinematographer Łukasz Żal is sumptuous and could easily translate into first rate stills shots too. The soundtrack uses a mix of folk, classic, showy tunes, jazz and emergent rock-and-roll as a backdrop within the evolving story.

The photogenic Wiktor (Tomasz Kot) is attracted to one of his new auditions: the fringe-haired blonde teenager Zula (Joanna Kulig). Their story develops as Wiktor's (previous love?) producer Irena (Agata Kulesza) falls to the wayside. Together Wiktor's group of singers must portray a diplomacy-laden rethink of Polish folk tunes for elite theatre goers, increasingly across Europe.

We see the story move from Poland to Berlin, then to Paris and beyond. It's a haunting movie, packed with individual moments of bitter sweet clarity and deliberately directed with quite distinct gaps to be filled by the viewer.

It's all good, man.

I've been enjoying the latest series of Better Call Saul. I really enjoy Vince Gilligan's show-running and early in Breaking Bad, I even downloaded some scripts as examples of good screenplay.

There's a mastery in the techniques used in this current show, which is set in the time before Breaking Bad. The same desert, flip-open burner phones and people up to no good. Shred and burn.

A confident part of the story-telling is how Breaking Bad plot lines have taken until the fourth series to emerge. Even a music sting in Episode 5.

Now, as well as characters, we get, for example, to see how they built that improbable lab underneath the heavyweight machinery of that industrial laundry.

Then it starts be about who knows who? How were they introduced? What did they do to one another. Some of it will end in tears. Or worse. Much worse.

It's a lesson in unrevealed back-stories. Pleasing also that this show is being released weekly, although I have a feeling I'll binge watch it again once the whole of series 4 is out there.

rope a dope the electorate

Singular BoJo blusters to replace May's defective Chequers deal. The leaked Yellowhammer 'No deal' looks even worse.

Labour's internecine arguments further dissipate their vague position. LibDem and Green want a Peoples' Vote but risk dividing the electorate.

That's an electorate on the ropes whilst elite posture. Oh well, as Elon Musk might say, pass di dutchie.

yellowhammer and the clowns are both just distracting larks

Now that Yellowhammer has been snapped in the wild, it's time to separate the corn buntings from the chaffinches. Appropriately, the countryside slang name for Yellowhammer is sometimes the "scribble lark".

I'm drawn to think of those latest scribbled papers as part of a rough-and-ready plan. More a decoy lark than the real thing.

BoJo and Top Hat clown are getting ready to attempt to veto May's bodged Chequers plan, with a hurriedly put together alternative. Another countryside story about the yellowhammer is that its red tongue belongs to the devil.

It's obvious what the devilish are doing. To stop the May Chequers deal, they need an alternative other than No Deal.

So that's what the scary clowns did during their summer holidays. Got out their crayons and drew their own fanciful picture of a deal. Expect more of it to foam from a well-known newspaper at the weekend.

I've decided its about time to classify the scenarios in play, in terms of effort to achieve and attractiveness. They all come out pretty grim.

1. The David Davis deal: Civil servants under little leadership producing something which was ultimately found to be empty and useless. Kicked into touch by May herself.
2. May's replacement so-called Chequers deal. Ill-formed with huge gaps and being challenged by others from the same party. Put together by a few highly paid secret advisors to placate the 18 months of no progress.
3. BoJo and the clowns. A political bish-bosh hurriedly assembled and full of new wishful thinking which will prove a useless distraction.
4. No Deal. Designed to seem so unattractive that the Chequers deal wins. A cheap trick, but one that the public may well believe.
5. Remain. The best outcome, but not what the vote said. A groundswell to get this considered hasn't been achieved and the opposition are asleep at the wheel.
6. What we were promised. Allegedly the best, but all built on lies.

Yeah, Well. Here's today's FT summary, before all of the scenarios kick in.

fixing an epson printer with vodka

I'm not recommending this, but it did get me out of a jam. Some years ago I donated a broken Epson printer to the local tip. The device didn't print although everything else seemed to work.

The salutary point was that someone at the tip asked if they could have the plastic crate that the printer was in, but the actual printer ended up in a skip with the broken lawnmowers.

This time, away from rashbre central, I thought I'd try something different. I read that print heads can get clogged if the printer isn't used enough. Even the cleaning cycle won't fix it. There's various kits with syringes and special paper to fix it for about £15. I didn't have time for this, because I needed something printed "Right Now".

Time for the J-Cloth and vodka.

I started the printer cleaning cycle and then powered the whole printer off when the big print head was in the middle. It can be pushed by hand at that point. I cut some J-Cloth into a strip, folded it double and put it under the print head (ie where the paper would normally sit).

Then another piece of J-Cloth onto which I dabbed a small amount of vodka. Transfer the vodka to the J-cloth strip in the printer, move the head backwards and forwards. Like I was 'ironing' the J-Cloth with the print head. Lots of colourful smudges transferred to the J-cloth. Alcohol was breaking down the blocked ink.

Remove everything, reset the printer, run the printer cleaning cycle once and then...

Hooray. It all worked like new again.

Cheers.

prioritising prior pieces at the prior priory

As well as reading a book for discussion, I've also joined another creative writing group. I used to belong to one which met every couple of weeks to review a small piece of a text and to write something short triggered from it. We'd all review one another's creations, in a positive way.

That group folded, but the new one I've joined seems like a good alternative. So far we've had an on-the-spot writing session and separately a session to review excerpts from each others' writing. It's also a great way to see some interesting pieces of the local scene.

This time we met in the beamed roof of an ex-refectory from a Benedictine priory. It was originally established at the behest of William the Conqueror around 1070 and had rebuilds during the 450 years the monks occupied it. Then in 1536, King Henry VIII brought about dissolution of priories and the old monastic church and cloisters were pulled down. The imposing hall remained and around 1650, the original tall refectory space was divided to make three floors of chambers.

We were now on the top floor for our review session. Most folk had written something new, highly varied and all well-written. I decided to take a piece from one of my unfinished NaNoWriMo sessions, which I'd produced around three years ago. It wasn't so much laziness as just not knowing what to expect until I'd been to one of these sessions.

We all received suggestions for changes and improvements, and I found the whole process most interesting. Not only feedback on my own work, but also the ideas applied to the writing of others. It's re-fired my enthusiasm for further writing as well as a chance to review and tidy some of my prior efforts.

But here's the thing. The tuning efforts seem to take much longer than the original writing. At least the writing conducted as part of the NaNoWriMo thing. That's when I have attempted to write 1,666 words per day/50,000 words total in the month of November. The doctrine of NaNoWriMo is to keep going. Can't think of anything to write? Add some weather/scenery/throw in a McGuffin.

For the revisions it's very different. And that's the piece I'm working through at the moment.

bugs from outer space

The next book to discuss in our pub-based book club is an oldie. The Andromeda Strain by Micheal Crichton, the writer of Jurassic Park. Now I hadn't read any Crichton for years and recollect thinking that his novels were somehow similar to one another. I mainly remember them as something I'd be reading standing on rush hour Central Line. Not too taxing and easy to restart. His other books include Congo - monsters in the jungle. Jurassic Park - monsters on an island. Prey - mini monsters in the desert.

But that's a but unfair. After our last pub group book (Dave, by Will Self), this one was a much easier page turner.

The Andromeda Strain is one of Crichton's earliest works about a nasty bug that comes back inside a space capsule. Although the plot is mini monsters in the desert, there's some interesting bits of science included, particularly considering the book dates from about 1969.

The book is not available on Kindle, and doesn't seem to be in publication anywhere. I managed to get an American copy via eBay, but I'm wondering if there's about to be a bumper anthology version issued for Christmas, or something?

It's quite interesting to see an author developing his style in this type of book. He has the various players make a variety of mistakes, but to help the reader, they are all quite heavily signposted as the story runs along. Kind of "Don't take the mysterious capsule back into town...Don't try to open it...Don't forget to wire up the security buttons in all of the secret underground rooms" and so on.

I enjoyed it as a read for our upcoming discussion, and my copy of the book is interesting of itself. Its pages are cut right to the very edge of the text and in my copy there were a couple of squished items.

I couldn't help thinking that maybe the andromeda strain was lurking in these old library books, waiting to be released.

time to find a guide to the labyrinth?

Everyone knows 'follow the money'. It's a frequent plot in TV cop series, especially ones with corruption in their story.

There's the related point about knowing who suffers from an action but going on to discover who profits.

So adding the money man long-term Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg to the list of Mueller investigation inputs is an interesting move. Weisselberg is said to have been given some immunity, but presumably only his interactions with Cohen. That's both Trumps long term lawyer and financial officer now being offered deals by prosecutors.

Cohen provided that tape saying how he'd used Weisselberg's advice about how to clean and insulate payments to the two women. It begs a question about how just how hypothetical Weisselberg's knowledge was?

In many TV-show stories of this type, a direct threat to the main man may be too difficult. They'll insteadgo for other family members. Maybe that could put a few interesting other people under a prosecution spotlight?

Weisselberg's history with Trump is continuous from the 1970s when he first worked for Fred Trump. Most recently he has has been handling the family business through the Trump Old Post Office LLC Trust, which has put Weisselberg and Donald Trump Jnr as the only two trustees of a mechanism to keep Trump away from his businesses whilst in office.

Famously the trust was also modified a few days after its press release. Eric Trump was removed as a trustee and a new piece was added which gave Donald Trump the right to take money from the trust at any time.

Labyrinthine situation? Hardly describes it.

long scream

The screams of last century's politician Screaming Lord Sutch might not be long enough for what is happening at the moment. I've had a quick look through some of those 'no deal' papers. They seem high level and puffed with pre-ambles before getting to their main points.

A few quick examples:

• For farming and farm loans, the UK Government will unilaterally continue to pay loans started under EU conditions through to 2022. This 'kick the ball further away' is the response to a number of issues but soon gets expensive.
• For banking services, the UK will keep EEA Passporting for EU firms through to 2020. That's all well and good but it is only in one direction. The EU doesn't offer any reciprocity, which means that many financial institutions based in London with major EU business could run into difficulties.
• Similarly, the loss of the Financial Market Infrastructure means that many EU-wide guarantees on financial matters are no longer valid to UK.
• At a consumer level, for plastic card transactions, all the no-surcharge agreements end. Same for phones and anything else. Happy holidays.
• For trade, there's complicated revised rules. A short extract: For movements of excise goods, the Excise Movement Control System (EMCS) would no longer be used to control suspended movements between the EU and the UK. However, EMCS would continue to be used to control the movement of duty suspended excise goods within the UK, including movements to and from UK ports, airports and the Channel tunnel. This will mean that immediately on Importation to the UK, businesses moving excise goods within the EU, including in duty suspension, will have to place those goods into UK excise duty suspension, otherwise duty will become payable. Simple.

Of course, this is the 'no deal' situation although many vox-pop won't really care about any of it except the cost of European selfie-phone usage. But no deal also highlights the un-agreed points of the so-called 'deal'. The politicians are masking everything. It's like looking at that famous screaming Munch picture from the perspective of the two other people on the bridge.

Crackpot politicians swagger with 'wish of the people' intent, hiding the reality of the original lies and the now looming consequences. After 18 months asleep at the wheel, the driver was eventually fired in the certainty of no time left to fix anything.
Even with 7000 civil servants already working on exit, the Treasury has now approved another 9000 more.

It seems to be a case of more people to pedal faster.

That classic disasterous project delivery problem.

I sometimes ride a bicycle turbo session called the long scream. It's designed to be intensive, although it has distractions built in. I'm wondering if distractions are what we're getting now as the finest outputs of our collective government and its supporting machinery are presented?

red walls and carpet?

Oops. That so-called president must be an unlucky fellow. Not since Tony Soprano can one person have been so surrounded by people under criminal suspicion or prosecution. Maybe he just doesn't ask the right questions?

But then again, Trump and his multifarious corporations have been involved in over 3,500 legal suits. Trump or one of his companies were plaintiffs in 1,900; defendants in 1,450; and bankruptcy, third party, or other in 150.

Maybe he's used to a certain undercurrent running through his daily life? A whole slew of his one-time friends and associates seem to have had a hard time.

There's that lower profile Rick Gates who kind of started the ball rolling. Last February he was found guilty of conspiring against the United States. Another 23 counts of tax fraud were dismissed without prejudice possibly because Mr Gates helped on other matters. He testified that he and Paul Manafort effected elaborate offshore tax-evasion and bank fraud schemes using offshore shell companies and bank accounts in Cyprus, St. Vincent and the UK to funnel millions of dollars from their political consulting work in Ukraine.

Then there's the usually ten thousand dollar suited Paul Manafort. He's just been found guilty of a bunch of financial crimes, although 10 of 18 charges were closed as a mistrial with one juror opposing the conviction. Manafort still has another set of charges, to which he pleads not guilty.

These 7 counts are: conspiracy against the United States, conspiracy to launder money, unregistered agent of a foreign principal, false and misleading FARA statements, false statements, obstruction of justice, conspiracy to obstruct justice.

Luckily his buddy Trump has said he'll look into ways to getting Manafort off the hook and to somehow pardon the 80 years or so of potential sentence.

The very same day as Manafort's sentence, we get Michael Cohen's guilty plea to eight charges: five counts of tax evasion, one count of making false statements to a financial institution, one count of willfully causing an unlawful corporate contribution, and one count of making an excessive campaign contribution at the request of a candidate or campaign.

Now there is a 28 page plea deal, although I suspect there may be further supplements over the next few days.

It is also interesting to see that Cohen is able to walk around on bail, a mere $500k, compared against his undeclared income in the document of around $4 million.

The document is also somehow reminiscent of the tawdry mechanics of some of those mob movies.

One of the counts is from profiteering on proceeds from a Birkin handbag. Unrelated, but cheery Jane Birkin herself had reason to cry 'Non' when there were questions of cruelty to the crocodile swamp dwellers in the name of her bag.

Back to Cohen. Other Soprano-like counts involve laundering money via Chicago taxi operators. Then there's the two women paid off (Woman-1 and Woman-2) and the implicated other person the so-called Individual-1. Maybe Magazine-1 will be able to shed further light?

It makes that simple George Papadopoulos conviction for lying about working with the Russians seem almost clear cut.

And that Micheal Flynn prosecution too. It seems to be about interfering in US/Russian sanctions.

The specific inferences around paying off women for silence seem to be at the hub of current developments and although they can be built up, they are comparatively slender charges compared with (for example) Russian electoral interference, money laundering and clandestine tax avoidance. There's already technicalities being used to try to demean the current accusations.

The Trumpers appear to be getting increasingly desperate to put a stop to all of this. Surely, just because a number of his personally selected advisors have been a bit swampy doesn't mean they all are?

With those mid-terms looming they'll apply pressure to try to shut all of this down. Guiliani is already making moves. And I suppose someone would profit from everything else staying under the increasingly red stained White House carpet?