misdirection and dismemberment

That new Polly Toynbee/David Walker book about the state we're in makes for interesting reading.

I'd add an extra dynamic now, whilst the conjuror's art of misdirection is being applied alongside a tory ideology.

The misdirection comes from the lies of the Referendum campaign and simplified bullet points of the recent election. Now that a temporary parliament has been formed, we can expect the main stories (notwithstanding recent major tragedies and incidents) to be about the Brussels shenanigans.

Behind it all we have a few statistics indicative of the ideologue-led agendas running quietly behind the scenes. We could regard the UK as a system, which runs with a state budget of around £772 billion over a year. It is currently spending about £56bn more than it raises.

It was this overspending figure that Osborne was trying to reduce to zero and then to start to pay back the national debt. The excuse was about prior overspends, but the real reason for a temporary hike of the figure to £156 bn was the bail-out of the banks after their disgraceful and largely unpunished casino antics.

Osborne wouldn't liken the UK debt to a household borrowing for a house. But there's a clear point to be made around a mortgage. You don't have to pay it all back in one go and sometimes the cost of money is actually quite reasonable. Those with a doctrinal dismemberment agenda can step around this thinking to one of just reduction of the size of the state.

I can think of people like Osborne/Oliver Letwin/Cameron/Gove who are all a part of this small state agenda. Written into their thinking is the Tory target to reduce the state from its 1997 size of 45% past its current 39% down to 36% by 2021. Easy headlines for at least a few of the (increasingly outdated) newspapers. Much more about 'me now' taxation rather than 'we together' as a continuum.

I've just watched that docudrama about the tawdry Theresa vs Boris inner circle boys' club voting for their leader last year. May was portrayed as a surprisingly opinionated, directive person, compared with what we've seen in the few rare glimpses of her when not running to a robotic script.

If she is as aware as portrayed, then she'd be another one to add to that 'small state' grouping.

Where it all becomes damaging is that the headlines of state attack are so easy to write. Bloated mandarin departments? Why, yes, Minister, etc.

So Brexit generates the chance to rewrite everything, and it is provided to the henchos of the government departments, because those actual departments lack resource, skill, scale or whatever. So in step the parastatal organisations from the Big Four and beyond. Lobbied-up friends of the Cabinet. They get paid whatever happens and can create shedloads of interns to red-ink everything. Hoteliers at the gold rush.

It becomes activity rather than results and is a large outcome from the front-line negotiations.

A couple more numbers. The UK GDP is around £1,943 bn, with the total national debt at £1,638 bn so we can see that currently the UK runs at 84% National Debt as percentage of GDP. The population continues to rise, and at 65.8 million in late 2016, it has added 7.6 million over the last 20 years.

The question becomes whether a larger state needs more investment to run properly? I'd say it does. That's another part of the misdirection of the citizens by politicians. As well as using the parastatals to analyse and organise for the government departments, increasingly these helpers also run and award the contacts for the stuff that needs to get done.

This is further diffusion of the State into private companies. Who runs the systems that the biggest departments use? Welfare? Health? even parts of the tax system?

Get closer to the public's awareness and spot other organisations that became private. BT. Utilities. Railways. Most of London's transport. Some of these haven't gone too well.

There's a big element of fat cattery around many of these systems. They're also increasingly run by offshore interests.

Quick examples of de-stating include Arriva (German Deutsche Bahn) buses and trains nationwide, non emergency ambulances. Arvarto (German) local taxation and welfare, waste management. NHS already uses VirginCare and Care UK as well as stock market listed multinationals including UnitedHealth Group, Acadia Healthcare, Circle, Capita and Interserve.

UK Power Networks is owned by Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings,40%, Power Assets Holdings (Hong Kong), 40%, and The Li Ka Shing Foundation, 20%. That's only one of the UK power networks, but includes what was once known as the London Electricity Board, the Eastern Electricity Board and the South Eastern Electricity Board.

The unbundling occurs everywhere and the remaining big targeted sections of the pie chart comprise Pensions, Welfare, Education and Health.

It brings in the next point, which is euphemistically referred to as 'externalities'. That's the stuff that operates alongside the service or product and becomes an area for cold-hearted spreadsheet action. Examples include training, pension plans, pollution management, social costs of closures.

So it'll be time to watch the left hand whilst the right hand is waving around, although unfortunately recent evidence suggests it is easier to understand the illusion.

barn

So we've 'upped sticks' from the woods to move to the barn.

We have a rotating cast of players here, also joined by livestock ranging from chickens to alpacas. The alpacas have pointy ears whereas llamas are the ones with the banana-shaped ears if you're ever not quite sure what's in the field.

I'm told that jinksy llamas also make good guard animals for a herd of say, sheep, whilst alpaca are relatively timid.

I'm also one fence short of the herd here, so although the friendly dog comes around whenever the gate is left open, the rarer livestock are kept contained.

Our friendly weather folk have told us there will be thunderstorms today, but I'm mainly seeing the clear blue skies and sunshine. Just right for sitting on the grass for a leisurely read.

lazing on a sunny afternoon

Still swanning around in the forest, although tomorrow morning it's time to move on from the shack to a barn. It's a fair distance away and I'm already mostly packed ready for the journey.

This afternoon deserves some sunny downtime, and maybe even a trip to a nearby pub.

a very loud noise in the woods

Even in this temporary home in the woods there's obvious signs of adjacent civilisation. None so dramatic as the sound of a flight of jet planes passing by at low altitude.

I'm used to hearing planes and helicopters going about their business, but on Thursday afternoon it was different because the initial low sound just kept getting louder and louder.

Wham.

I looked around the sky but couldn't see anything. I wondered why a jet plane had been allowed to fly so low.

Then, a few minutes later I heard a similar more distant sound, increasing in volume. I looked up to my right just in time to see a diamond grouping of planes banking in a curve which would disappear behind me.

This time I was aware that the sound level stayed constant and I realised that they must be turning behind me in a loop.

Sure enough, another ten seconds and I saw a block of tightly formed planes zoom through a hole in the trees and then a few seconds later a second smaller grouping.

This time I could see the planes clearly. The Red Arrows, which I assumed were at the end of a circuit from a display. No smoke trails, so it must have been the outer reaches.

I checked their calendar. They should be at Goodwood, but apparently the cloud cover was too low. Perhaps this was a substitute fly-past? Still a wow-inducing experience. They should be flying past again today in about ten minutes. This time I'll be prepared.

*Update: They just flew past on the way to their show, but were above the clouds.

walkaway

I've been reading Walkaway for a few weeks now. I originally picked it up at the Hay Book Festival, when I was browsing the book tent on Utopia day. I like Cory Doctorow's writings in Boing Boing and had previously read a gift copy of Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom.

Doctorow deals in ideas and themes and indeed there are some continuities between the two novels. In Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom there are themes around increasing virtualisation, a set of people known as the Ad-hocs who keep traditional Disney running and the concept of rebooting humans after death.

In Walkaway, the ideas are extended and writ large in a post-scarcity world. Normal folk live in a place called 'default'. There's the zotta-rich at the top of the pyramid and they can do anything. Then there's the walkaways who slide off the edge of the world into their own self-fabricated zone using the exhaust products/feedstock from everyone else.

It strikes me as a thought experiment with characters. I'd almost, in systems engineering terms, call them actors, because as walkaways, they have a curious lack of dimensional depth. Almost like a set of artificial intelligences talking amongst themselves. It also leads to some protracted debates, which is really Doctorow's device to provide depth of exposition on a topic.

Voices in head, anyone?

When I attended the Utopia debate at Hay, I was reminded of my own impressions of the problems of any Utopia, which go right back to Thomas More and the critiques of Plato's Republic. There's the emergent need for rules and then their unintended consequences. Share stuff, don't own it. But who lives closest to the share shack? And five days at Glasto is very different from a year at Twin Oaks.

So there's inevitable flaws in Doctorow's world. It's all very well to build a happy hippy community using fabrication mechanisms that can recreate anything, but what happens the day the bad guys decide to take it over? Walkaway, obviously?

Or at a more basic level when the zottas gamify their cars with better firmware and can outmanoeuvre other vehicles. Or like Orwell's inner party can switch off their home telescreens.

Along the way there's the reboot/uploading theme - putting one's consciousness onto a system. It's been popularly explored in Charlie Brooker's Black Mirror series, with checkpointed versions of self screamingly relegated to the chores or neural network in a jar type San Junipero era-hopping.

I guess it's an interesting idea to re-examine at different points in one's real life too. I'm reminded of a favourite 1970s Roy Harper love song:

We're just spinning leaves in the flight of a dawn, little girl. Falling through an eternal horizon of time. But as we lie here I'd like to think that all we've got will be ours forever.

Don't you think we're forever.

But in a different frame of mind I'd think of a gloomier Jeff Mangum's two headed boy:

All floating in glass. The sun it has passed. Now it's blacker than black. I can hear as you tap on your jar. I am listening to hear where you are.

Whew. So Doctorow is dealing with complex stuff that arcs from Plato into the future. He's had to build a world or two to make the story and then throw in ideology and economic theory.

A tall order, particularly for a prolific and on-trend writer. Even in the time since this was written, some things have moved along. Remember it's a published 2017 book, but there's almost an over-emphasis on 3D printing and other once zeitgeisty concepts.

There's oblique humour in amongst the geekish descriptions and dialogues. In a proper game-playing moment a Hunger Games style blimp appears and rescues some of our protagonists from a particular point of conflict. Time for a jump-cut fast forward to allow the machine to reset.

Weirdly, it was the frequently crashing AI called Dis, with her existential crises that propelled me through the middle section of the book. I guess the portrayal of Dis didn't have to try as hard as some of the others, with their multiple names and thigh-slapping backward references to storybook characters.

I'm glad to have read it, although my reading process changed to speed-reading for the later part of the book. Still, I suppose one day we'll be able to upload the entire content in a matter of minutes.

Here's Roy Harper.

hole truths

My improvised internet connection in the woods is a kind of pay-as-you-go deal. Much better than the train-of-thought jarring slowness of the prior official set-up, which also couldn't get a phone signal.

I rigged up this alternative and started with a modest payment but have already had to increase it because of the mysteriously large amounts of data being processed. It's probably linked to all of the social media tracking data that now gets added to everything in order to try to sell me a toaster.

And despite all the trees around, I couldn't find one that looked like the magic money tree of the conservatives (like on their logo) and instead have had to resort to a more conventional means of top-up.

It makes me wonder whether that Northern Irish negotiation missed a trick? Instead of just taking the £1 billion, they could also have made it some sort of pay as you go deal. At this rate, there will already have been half a dozen 'confidence and supply' votes by the end of today. Mrs May could regard it as a triumph based upon 'cost per defended majority vote' which is already rapidly reducing.

But of course it won't be classed that way because the DUP money wasn't a payoff. Oh No.

It also means Mrs May can continue a little longer with her non-specific hole digging project, aided and abetted by the newly muddied boots of that popular and well-known environmentalist Mr Gove. Is it just me, or has Mrs May deliberately decided to field her most annoying cohorts for television and radio interviews?

In related news, our own hole-digging project is proceeding apace. A couple of small ponds and a meandering brook should do nicely. We can regard it as a goal-oriented outcome, although currently a work in progress.

old checkout laser scanners won't spark

I moved my loyalty cards from physical wallet to iPhone ages ago, using that Stocard App. It presents the relevant bar-code and/or image of whatever card is required at Point of Sale.

It can work fine, but some stores are half-hearted in their support of loyalty technology. Sparks at Marks and Spencer is a case in point.

Stocard will work in some M&S locations. In others it won't scan at all. A well-trained assistant will key the Sparks number manually, but other times it gets ignored or I get referred to the service counter.

Today I was in a larger store. The iPhone image worked fine in one area, but a few minutes later wouldn't work at all. I surmise that only the hand-held scanners can read the card image.

I'm reassured that I'm still beta testing the future.

tales from the riverbank

I'm still in the forest and this time able to catch a photograph of the heron that landed on the back porch a few days ago.

I wasn't sure that I'd be able to upload the picture because my internet connection is as slow as olden-days dial-up.

I didn't really expect to be able to temporarily live in the woods without technology. Instead, I've assembled my own makeshift wi-fi node connected at 4G speed.

I know, it's hardly Robinson Crusoe.

one that nearly got away

Oops.

I said to Pat that I'd spotted a Rodin exhibition at a gallery in London.

Pat had been sent a postcard of the original "Kiss" sculpture and I remembered that there was a smaller bronze version of it sitting in a window in St James.

One minor detour later and I was outside the delightful Bowman Sculpture gallery.

I snapped The Kiss, and then ventured inside. These purchasable pieces are real Rodin, many of which were the scaled down prototypes for what become well-known sculptures.

Another series displayed were of the Burghers of Calais, each individual standing around 50 cm high, as prototypes for the version that is now a clear landmark in the shade of Victoria Tower at the Houses of Parliament, or indeed outside the Town Hall in Calais.

Spot the maquette in the background of my gallery window snapshot and then see my pictures below from outside of Parliament.

I'll always stop to admire them if I cut through Victoria Tower Gardens, as well as tipping a hat to Emmaline Pankhurst (by Arthur George Walker) in the entrance to the gardens.

drive by speeching

So that was the dress down Queen's Speech. Regalia at the House, but the Queen arrived in her Ascot gear. I noticed that she was wearing part of the Cullinan diamond. Just the 18.8 Carat brooch, which was a piece cut from the original $2 billion Star of Africa. Admittedly, it is reputed to be one of Her Majesty's favourite brooches.

I should also mention the Queen's hat, which was somewhat reminiscent of a blue and yellow starred EU roundel.

The Queen arrived in one car and her Imperial Crown (not worn) was in another. The wee-willy-winky cap of maintenance and the Sword of State were in a third car.

Because the golden carriage wasn't used, the Queen's Bentley was enlisted and could also help her get her skates on for a quick getaway to Royal Ascot.
Teresa May's speech for the Queen to read was a let-down. Non-specific although notable for the omissions of most of the pre-signalled bloopers from recent weeks.

The Queen relayed the statement about Brexit, some form of repeal bill, upping of security, HS2, technical education. Oh yes, and electric cars and spaceports. All generalised. Detail isn't a strong suite with this current administration.

The onlookers fidgeted in the heatwave, but I wasn't quite sure what was causing the hot air.

wild heron

Yesterday, by the banks of the stream, I thought I caught a flash of the wings of a very large bird. I'm more accustomed to birds around the size of pigeons.

Today it landed on the open screening on the porch at the back of our shack in the wood. A grey heron. This solitary one looked spectacular. Only sighted for a matter of seconds but almost close enough to touch. I've normally seen herons from a distance, flying, or still in the water by a river's edge.

Then a flash of its outstretched huge wings as it moved back towards the water. There's moorhens around, I hope they are wise enough to stay out of its way.

So what's the symbolism of a heron?

As a Chinese symbol the Heron represents strength, purity, patience and long life. In Africa, the Heron was thought to communicate with the Gods. Most Native American tribes took note of the heron’s inquisitiveness, curiosity and determination portraying the heron as a symbol of wisdom, with good judgement skills. And some say that as a water creature the heron is a symbol of going with the flow, and working with the elements of nature.

I'll enjoy sharing those few seconds of company with such a majestic creature.

strong and streaming

Adding pictures to my blog entries may prove more difficult than usual whilst I am in a wooden shack in the forest. Of course, the view makes up for some inconvenience.

Although I’ve managed to find a weak digital signal, it is struggling to deliver updates from my phone camera to my blog.

The idea was always to spend a few walkaway days in the forest as part of the transitional phase into the next adventure.

It's several weeks since the crating up process and we’re managing to survive on limited materials whilst still providing the appearance of (mostly) business as usual. Minus the bikes, which are crated up somewhere.

At least we are keeping things going. More than can be said for the second titular head of the UK. We have a Monarch already, so I'm not quite sure what the current Prime Minister's role really entails. We haven't even managed to restart Parliament.

The trade talks for the EU exit have been pushed from number one to around number four on the negotiation stack. The recent horrors around London received somewhat robotic responses, until the recent appearance where the PM was obviously posed with a group of multicultural electorate. The straw-clutching DUP talks have drifted, which doesn't bode well for the altogether larger EU talks.

I've worked out that the PM doesn't want the job any longer. Just look at her face on any TV moment. I hesitate to use words like 'appearance' or 'interview' because she seems to be pushed out like some kind of toy on wheels. I understand that she can't resign because the mad box of frogs that would replace her would be even crazier. I think she knows that too, and now is probably in thrall to the Tory apparatus which erodes her preacher's daughter storyline. And maybe it is true that the electorate don't want yet another election, which would inevitably follow her removal.

Meanwhile the UK has been put onto a mad autopilot, like one of those spaceship movies where the computer takes over. I'll still blame Cameron and Osborne for setting the collision course, aided and abetted by Etonian chums. Britain had set the conditions by allowing the election of richly rewarded EU-haters to represent us in Brussels. Ironically, the EU-haters will get decent EU pensions from their part in the crash.

But the problem now includes the Brexit means Brexit statements, which are about as much use as saying grey = grey. David Davies now gets to operationalise the exit, but already on Day 1 had his issues reprioritised by Brussels. As EU negotiations minister Michel Barnier says, "I am not in a frame of mind to make concessions or ask for concessions … the UK has asked to leave the EU, not the other way round, so we each have to assume the consequences of our decisions and the consequences are substantial. Please do not underestimate those consequences."

I've already mentioned frogs in one context, I'm now wondering about that old apocryphal tale about slowly boiled frogs, in this case it being the British electorate being dropped into the pot.

Philip Hammond has just indicated that he will follow in Osborne's footsteps and attempt to balance the books (no longer by 2020, instead by 2025). Make no mistake, that means more austerity. And the word austerity becomes a code word. Despite Hammond himself saying [He] remains clear today, that when the British people voted last June, they did not vote to become poorer, or less secure...

That's where austerity belies his other statement. He has previously lined up another £9bn of welfare cuts, notwithstanding things like removal of triple lock pension protection and public sector cuts. How much of the previous statements drift into the Queens Speech could be an indicator of whether Hammond will be allowed to flex his position.

Hammond actually understands arithmetic and spreadsheets. He should use his newly gained positional strength to adjust things, instead of being forced to follow down the same ruinous rabbit hole dug by Osborne.

I've commented on the reality in prior posts back through 2015-2016 and it's not really changing. The Office for Budget Responsibility paints the picture.

It's easy to spot the lie. The public sector debt percentage of GDP is still increasing. Magically, the plus two years out point is once again where things are predicted to get better.

Strange that? It is outside of the operational horizon and akin to pushing the lump under the carpet further along.

I know that most people don't pay much attention to any of this stuff. Our elected politicians have been relying on a mix of confusing the electorate and three word soundbites.

That's how last year's referendum worked. Lies and confusion. Pernicious subversion of rational argument, as Sir David Omand might call it, based upon his War Studies propaganda classifications.

If so, then despite the electorate's vote, the referendum result should probably be classed as illegally obtained.

On the other hand, in my current planetgong state, a squirrel just bounced across the balcony of the shack.