designated survivors of campaign trail

I’ve been watching Designated Survivor (24 meets The West Wing meets House of Cards - I don’t have time to explain etc.) and that dark 2015 German movie 'Er ist wieder da’ which both, in different ways, play out alternative politically motivated futures and the effects on the political class, media class and the populace.

One is set in America, the other in Germany. They both explore the reactions of ordinary people when pushed into unusual situations. We now have an unusual situation here in the UK, with the Brexit process running, based upon ordinary peoples’ votes. We’ll soon be able to see how the Americans handle their next unusual situation after their General Election.

What does voting for Trump now achieve? Large areas of the US will automatically vote for him in any case.

However, if the Republican Party has more-or-less rejected him, and he already hints at running vendettas against people who don’t agree, then the US could conceivably get someone without a party.

An independent loose cannon in charge of the United States? Maybe it's an Apprentice reality TV show trait to keep loose cannons in the team?

The US result is mainly down to a few states too, Florida (29 seats), Ohio (18 seats), Georgia (16 seats) and North Carolina (15 seats). The candidates consider there’s no point in visiting the dead-cert states nor the unchangeable ones. It seems almost bonkers that the whole political machine slows to a crawl for 25% of the time (one year in every four) whilst this strangely distracting process takes place.

It’s also interesting to look at the mainly central casting-like range of Republicans that have been seen off by Trump in his journey. Trump has passed 25 Republican competitors including Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul and Carly Fiorina.

Does this mean there were 25 less-suitable Republican candidates? It’s legally unchallengeable for the next month, but may re-appear when the results are known.

Using current Politico poll positioning, I offer a few unscientific percentages.

• Trump wins and the Republicans regroup around him 5%.
• Trump wins and the Republicans disown him 10%.
• Trump wins and the Republican Party splits 10%.
• Trump wins and somehow gets deposed 10%.
• Hillary wins and Trump declares the results rigged 35%.
• Hillary wins and Trump somehow goes quietly 5%?
• Hillary wins and something else happens 5%?

That's me interpreting the swing state Politico battleground percentages, which still leave about 15% unaccounted.

And I'm wondering who will be the designated survivors after the results are in.

subterranean homesick blues

Bob Dylan gets a Nobel literature prize.

Here he is in an alley alongside the Savoy Hotel in London, with Allen Ginsberg and Bob Neuwirth in the background. Card graphics by Donovan, Neuwirth and Dylan. Packing it all in to 2 minutes 18 seconds

"Subterranean Homesick Blues"

Johnny's in the basement
Mixing up the medicine
I'm on the pavement
Thinking about the government
The man in a trench coat
Badge out, laid off
Says he's got a bad cough
Wants to get it paid off

Look out kid
It's somethin' you did
God knows when
But you're doin' it again
You better duck down the alley way
Lookin' for a new friend
A man in a 'coon-skin cap
In a pig pen
Wants eleven dollar bills
You only got ten.

Maggie comes fleet foot
Face full of black soot
Talkin' that the heat put
Plants in the bed but
The phone's tapped anyway
Maggie says that many say
They must bust in early May
Orders from the DA

Look out kid
Don't matter what you did
Walk on your tip toes
Don't tie no bows
Better stay away from those
That carry around a fire hose
Keep a clean nose
Wash the plain clothes
You don't need a weather man
To know which way the wind blows.

Get sick, get well
Hang around an ink well
Ring bell, hard to tell
If anything's gonna sell
Try hard, get barred
Get back, write Braille
Get jailed, jump bail Join the army, if you fail

Look out kid
You're gonna get hit
But losers, cheaters
Six-time users
Hang around the theaters
Girl by the whirlpool is
Lookin' for a new fool
Don't follow leaders
Watch the parkin' meters.

Ah get born, keep warm
Short pants, romance, learn to dance
Get dressed, get blessed
Try to be a success
Please her, please him, buy gifts
Don't steal, don't lift
Twenty years of schoolin'
And they put you on the day shift

Look out kid
They keep it all hid
Better jump down a manhole
Light yourself a candle
Don't wear sandals
Try to avoid the scandals
Don't wanna be a bum
You better chew gum
The pump don't work
'Cause the vandals took the handles.

i can't believe it's not stocked

If Unilever really ask for an extra 10% for all of their products, based upon the Brexit affected GBP to Euro rate change, then it will be interesting to see how many supermarket chains beyond Tesco refuse to stock the many household name brands.

Marmite already seems to be in short supply, although I thought it was made in the UK. At least we are past the main ice cream season.

the football with switches

Like many, I knew I was being lied to in the referendum debate. It illustrated a next level of division between the politicians and the people, where there was ever smaller regard paid to giving truthful renderings of what was happening.

I'm sure there's plenty of good and well-meaning folk in the Palace of Westminster, but when the primary spokespeople are diffident to accuracy, then it brings everyone down with it.

Politicians in America seem to have a more advanced form of the malaise. Not just peddling fibs and half truths, but instead just saying whatever is considered will appeal to the particular voter cross-section being targeted.

Since I watched the Republican and Democrat conventions back in July, Sunday evening's town hall debate showed how far the whole thing could rumble in a couple of months.

To me, it comes across as about picking the least worst of two questionable choices. An insider with some track record but a wide range of unanswered questions about past behaviours or an amateur political bragging billionaire. It's surprising that the dollar is holding up, given what could happen in about a month.

Come to think of it, when I say the least worst I suppose it goes further and becomes about the least scary. Now where is that nuclear football?

news flash as flash boys flash crash with flashy excuses

The recent dollar to pound situation causes me to muse further on the rise of robots and control systems. Like when I asked a speech recognition system about service stops on the A1M between London and Newcastle, it gave me a fishing shop in North America.

Alexa (Amazon) still can't provide coffee house music and when I asked it (as a deliberate test) to play "Set the controls for the heart of the sun by Pink Floyd", it responded in all its dust gathering finesse with "I cannot find Set the Controls for the Heart of the Sun (Remastered 2011)", like an echo taunting me.

So it's little surprise that apparently the Flash Boys on the FX desks can't tame the algorithms used by their trading systems to keep the pound/dollar at a sensible level.

What it hides is a kind of economic destruction which is taking place in the microseconds whilst currencies are all over the place. It's years since the 'wars of the wires' when traders used to institutionally rely on shorter path lengths to exploit the microseconds to intercept and fiddle the value of stock trades.

It intrigues me that this recent pound drop was even referred to by our Chancellor as a flash crash, which is the terminology of those rogues from the days of the intercepted stock trades. High Frequency Trading, bought and sold (or sold and bought) in milliseconds.

Nowadays it's the 'algos' which get the blame. Algorithms which reputedly trade on the back of news sites and Twitter. It's all very convenient as a form of excuse. Like saying it doesn't work with Apple, the van's broken down, or it's an effect of Brexit uncertainty.

But behind it I can't help thinking there's someone making a very fast buck. Or billion bucks.

kicked snug together

I received one of those emails from HM Treasury today explaining that the Lloyds Bank retail share sale was off. That's another of the Osborne agenda items biting the dust.

I must admit to buying a few shares around the time of the original Osborne announcement. After all, Lloyds were quite low-priced at the time and the now defunct Osborne statement implied that they would add about 20% to their value.

The revised Hammond plan is to quietly sell off the shares via Morgan Stanley to larger organisations. Re-privitisation by stealth. I suppose it keeps the potential gains in the hands of the institutional investors.

At the time of the Osborne announcement, 73.6p was the point at which to sell to make a profit for a retail sell-off. My oops diagram below shows that it has slipped somewhat from that point, this afternoon at around 51p.

Philip Hammond's revised calculation conveniently makes the necessary selling point around early today's 53p, to be sure of breaking even at £20.3bn after all the shares have been passed back into the private sector. In effect it bundles prior sell-off gains into the equation to make a break-even point.

The currently achieved £16.9bn needs just another £3.4bn to get back to the original figure. It's like Hammond giving away £1.34bn compared with Osborne's statement.

This revision gives the Chancellor something to talk about at the IMF.

For me, I'll hang on to my low-priced Lloyds shares, take the dividends and predict that the 53p price is really much undervalued for this equity.

"Kicked snug together, precious home solutions. Excited breathe confident calm breeze."

As the branding agency might say.

in which I try DMX lighting with a MacBook Air

For the last of the current series of FANS shows it looked as if we'd have no lights. Everywhere else we'd had proper lighting rigs, including 8 metre motorised gantries and movable LED systems. For the last show, we'd maybe have a few house lights. On wall switches. In a cupboard.

I decided to see whether it would be possible to create a small DMX rig from scratch, using a few LED fixtures and my MacBook Air. There wasn't really time to get to grips with a portable DMX console, and I really wanted something that would provide drag-and-drop user definable lighting.

Fortunately, there's a few programs around for this and the one I hastily selected is called Lightkey. It does the job in pretty much the way I'd want it to. You define the fixtures, set them up on a 512 channel DMX grid, define presets for them and then drag the presets onto buttons to control the lights. It even gives a usable pictorial representation of the design.

For this show, it was all about inexpensive fixtures, so I hit up Amazon and got most of the bits based upon the comments in the reviews of the cheapest LED PAR style lighting.

The front four PAR64 individually addressable lights were about £16 each and to that I added a couple of budget LED PAR partybars, which even included the full tripod. This was definitely a case of reading the specs carefully before buying anything to sure that they would do what was required.

Add a few bulk purchased 2 metre DMX connector cables, a couple of 20m DMX cables, some 5 metre kettle leads and the various adapters to go from 5 pin (stage)to 3 pin (domestic) DMX and it was almost ready for business. Oh yes, and a USB to DMX converter.

I could then sketch out a lighting design on the Mac, before we even got to the venue. We honestly set up the whole rig in about 20 minutes, including around 45 lighting cues I'd pre-programmed in, including some fancy loop sequences.

If I'd had more time to learn the software, we could have done even better, but the first time we'd connected the software, USB-DMX dongle and lights together was the evening before the show. It still worked fantastically well, creating lighting that was well beyond the switch-on switch-off level. Note to self to bring a bigger power adapter for the MacBook though.

I've been idly looking at proper DMX consoles, but honestly think a Midi-style button set such as a Novation LaunchPad might be a better and kind of more modern option.

And going forward, a couple of inexpensive moving head lights would really add something creating a complete kit for smaller and pop-up venues.

Now, about the next show?

Hey Alexa, play set the controls for the heart of the sun, No Alexa- don't fly there, Hey Alexa Pause #blooper

It's entirely possible that a certain well-known blonde Belgian beer had a part to play in a recent conversation. Would the choice of operating system affect a house purchase in the future? Kind of Mac vs Android.

At our place we already have different areas of the house running on different systems. The hallway has the Google Nest thermostat and if we ever upgrade it, then it would probably also get speech recognition.

The lounge has Apple Home, mainly because of the Apple television with its speech recognition. But come to think of it, there's also an Amazon Fire device, which also has speech recognition.

But no, we don't use the speech because it is generally too random in its responses. As an example, when I recently asked about a lunch stop on the A1M, it gave me a fishing shop location 4,600 miles away in America.

Recent new gadgets for all of this are the cascaded set of Amazon things; Echo, Tap and Dot, one of which arrived through the post today. Unlike Siri, Cortana, the enigmatic Facebook M and even Google MSA, the Amazon system uses a real name, Alexa, to trigger the voice input.

We shouldn't forget the French invoxia system, gamely trying to sell the toy-like Triby to the Americans although now with Alexa input. Although, I must admit I'm not too sure about their main advert strip.

That's not to say that speech can't work. If I go all comic-book Dick Tracy and talk to my watch, such as to make an Evernote reminder, then the speech is almost entirely well-rendered. I suppose I'm using my carphone voice for this, which isn't quite like natural speech. Yes, it gets remarked upon.
It's still easy to fool Siri on the Mac though. If I want music Siri will happily play 'Pop' 'Jazz' 'Ed Sheeran' etc. but if I ask for 'Coffee House' or 'Start the Week' it will get somewhat more haphazard. Maybe I need to update the genres?

The biggest recent change has been the Apple IOS 10, which has started to pull all of the systems together on the iPhone. To my surprise, this latest version has somehow integrated the Hue lights, the fire, the Nest and all the Harmony TV controls including Sky, Apple, Netflix, Amazon so that they are now accessible mainly from a 'card swipe' on the phone. Pretty good actually and I didn't even need to install anything other than the IOS for all of this to start working.

So I guess that's going to be the basis of my theory. It won't be the domestic operating system that dictates; it will be the protocol that somehow binds the disparate systems together to give a single interface, whether its phone, voice or gesture-based.

Not that gesture, Alexa.

YTD bike stats and the early mince pie effect

According to Strava I'm currently about 110 miles ahead of 'pace' to reach my year end cycling target. I've also noticed that my year end target is somehow set to 3953 instead of 4000 miles, so something has gone wrong along the way.

It means I'll need to focus because I know that December is usually a duff month for cycling, plus the inadvertent eating of mince pies will eventually start to interfere with the flow.

A few days ago I was in ASDA Gateshead, where I noticed mince pies were already available. They were positioned close to the exit at the back of the store where the staff go around to the unloading area. I wondered if this was a subtle way to remind the staff of the approaching season.

On the other hand, the same store also stocked hot-cross buns and mini creme eggs, so I suppose it's more symptomatic of all-the-year-round grocery offerings.

I sometimes think of the oddest things when pedalling.

In the Heights

Towards Granary Square in the evening to see In The Heights at its Kings Cross venue, which is the traverse staging along a couple of the old platforms at the railway station.

It is all high energy dance, with a smokin' Latino backbeat and covers stories of the locals around 180th Street in Manhattan. Washington Heights is largely Dominican Republic and Puerto-Rican and we see how those that came for the American Dream are making out in 2016 New York.

Usnavi is a bodega owner who looks after the aging Cuban lady next door. He pines for the gorgeous girl with downtown tastes working in the neighboring beauty salon and dreams of winning the lottery and escaping to the shores of his native Dominican Republic.

Meanwhile, Nina, a childhood friend of Usnavi’s, has returned to the neighborhood from her first year at Stanford with bad news for her taxi-firm running parents.

The storylines are simple enough and give room for plenty of dance and original songs, far removed from the juke box musicals of the Wast End.

It's my second time seeing it, this time with an almost entirely different cast and both times strongly delivered.

more gadgets?

The #FANS show got me thinking about some aspects of the get-ins and the get-outs. All the venues were different sizes and with different house kit, so there was a roadie-like aspect to the shifting of the varied flight-cases of equipment around. Also that moment where the local engineers and the show compared cables at the end to ensure that the right ones left the building.

The wicked flight cases were also part of the staging and so had to be specially sprayed with that Dirty Down spray paint, along with the copious addition of tour stickers. Notice the one case that we borrowed that hasn't been given the treatment?

As well as the live band set-up the show had many lighting and sound cues. It raises all kinds of questions about technology, because only one of the venues had fully moved over to LED lighting, with the rest using conventional bulbs and miles of heavy snake cable.

I'm thinking that the way to go with all of this, technologically speaking, is to move to AES50 digital cabling and pre-programmed DMX lighting control. The lights used were already DMX'd but they still had to be set up at each venue. A better option is to get a DMX Master controller and pre-program the majority of what is needed, to save time during set-up.

We shall see, but it does create the possibility for a whole new range of gadget investigations.

an orange camera?

We're into the new gadget season now, and there's a few stalking the area like so many undiscovered Pokémon. One that I should logically like is the Orange Leica Sofort camera, which doesn't officially appear until around November.

Reasons I should theoretically like it:

1) It's orange, which, unlike Madonna, is a colour I do like.
2) It's Leica, but priced (for them) inexpensively.
3) It's a camera, with a Leica Lens.
4) Did I mention it's a Leica?

But.

The original promo shots show the camera in its various colours and looking about the size of a GoPro/pack of playing cards.

Then Hannah picks up the camera in the VW camper van and oops, it all looks out of scale.

Of course it's so that the 10-shot instant film pack can be put inside it. The f12.7 aperture means there's no real focusing required and the example shot shows the limited dynamic/tonal range. I'm sure there's a place for it in the world of whimsical fashion shots and location tryouts, but I struggle to see how it earns its 'packing space'? Except when in a camper van, of course. Hannah doesn't mind though, she even goes surfing around the Costa Mesa without a wet suit.

For this type of camera the limits are all part of the fun, but I'll be sticking with the rather more digital Hipstamatic and Instagram. Even if it is all a bit more yellow.