blurry white snow job vs it is what it is

I had a quick look at that new White Paper. All 76 pages of it. Yes, I did notice the 14 weeks holiday for UK folk. Oops. Maybe that Steve Bell cartoon last week was right?

I was expecting the Exit and Partnership White Paper to contain something akin to a plan. Nothing too detailed but maybe a few key steps or something that would move the ball along. If the Article 50 trigger is pulled sometime in March (31st anyone?) then there had jolly well better be a plan of the next steps and their allocated budget of time.

Does David Davis provide this? Why no.

He reframes the 12 points that Theresa May issued a week or so ago at Lancaster House. Admittedly there's more verbiage behind everything, but it does slightly smack of a re-purposed ONS report which has had some EU exit commentary added. In consultant speak it's 'the thickening' but not the main report.

I'd have liked to have seen the timetable and maybe a sense of the priorities. I decided to apply a very coarse lens to the various topics. I've called it 'Actionable?' and it's to determine whether the things listed are directly actionable by the UK Government, and to a degree how much they are within the power of the government.

A few conceivably are actionable, but there's a whole bunch that still need the acceptance or indulgence of the parties with whom we would need to negotiate. I can understand that there was a need to provide something substantive to support the thin 50 word exit Bill, but I'm not sure that a snow job of verbiage without determined actionable topics really cuts it. Our Mr Brexit is a little bit too blurry for this stage in the game.

Some might say that this White Paper amounts to the Playbook for the negotiations. I'm less convinced. It feels to me more like an Appendix to a Playbook, which has pulled together some useful statistics. Maybe it is a holding position, but the team behind this have had a lot longer than the last week to get their act together. It is kind of frightening.

Theresa May needs to be banging on the doors of the people supposed to be running this to demand the actual Playbook. The Plan. The options. The leverage. The Budget. The one-off cost. The ongoing annualised run-rate post exit. You get my drift.

Perhaps the press and media will see it differently? They could spend ages poring over the minutiae of the stuff included, but I'm not sure how this really drives the position much further forward.

god emperors and wonder cards

Playing board games last month, one facet was to get a "golden card".

Game dependent, it might be 'Get out of Jail, Free', 'Take half of the other players profit', 'Immunity from the thing they ask you to do' and so on.

The thing was, you'd be hard pressed to collect even two or three of these wonder cards in an average game, let alone the ability to use them all.

Some might say that the board games are not realistic because of this, and that people don't get that many carte blanche moments where they can write their own fortunes.

Although, if you get elected to the highest office in America, this seems to an available form of wish fulfilment. I can't quite fathom how the man with the pen can just keep writing new orders for the way the whole country will run.

It doesn't seem necessary to go through any sort of governing process, just a kind of Leto II Atreides God Emperor approach where it is just made so.

Now Leto II was a character from Frank Herbert's Dune series. Leto II became part man and part worm, and had sole control of a valuable melange/spice which gave humans various powers. His world-view derived from a range of other controlling cultures, using their worst crossovers as his way of working. It made him a despotic and ruthless ruler of everything. He kept humanity as a prisoner for 3,500 years.

The original book cover depicted the God Emperor, before it was replaced with the modern graphics, which in true Douglas Adams style blended the 'trilogy' of Dune books together. Yes, this was book four of six.

But there is something about that face. The hairstyle. I don't know...

Anyway, Frank Herbert's novels were science fiction, but without the gadgets. So called 'soft' science fiction. A future galaxy with parallels in the earth. Herbert explored the psychology and philosophies more than the way that flip-up communicators would work.

He wrote that governments suffer a recurring problem because power attracts pathological personalities. That power can be magnetic to the corruptible. That a drunkenness and addiction can occur.

Perhaps only the truly [insert your own word here] get to use as many wonder cards as they like. We shall see.

So what happened to Leto II? Let's just say it didn't end well.

suitability of multipass vs galactic republic id?

Pre ESTA days, I used to have one of those long-term USA visas. Come to think of it, I suppose its time limit was described as 'indefinite'. So true.

One day I was travelling alone, re-entering the US through somewhere like JFK and was stopped by the border official.

He called to another person who escorted me over into a small side room, like in a Jason Bourne movie. I was asked a few questions by one person whilst another one hovered in the background. They explained they were revoking my visa. Its full page glory was unceremoniously cancelled and I was given a new mini stamp in the passport with a time limit.

In its own small way, this was quite unnerving, yet the actual process was probably only 15 minutes, admittedly at the end of a six hour flight.

Because of my frequent travelling, in those days I used to keep a couple of passports running, one which I called my 'clean' passport and the other one which has a few more stamps in it. Even that process changed as the various authorities started to move over to those whole page stickers with photographs on them. And there was a certain country which I visited that would put their stamps onto paper to be kept with the passport for the duration of the visit (wink wink).

Even now I order the extra pages version of the passport.

But with new border controls being created, I'm wondering about the whole passport thing again. Aside from the shhh! fake camouflage 'passports' which anyone can get (like British Honduras or Western Sahara), there's the places that have lesser rules.

I'm guessing that the US will once again rein in the H-1/H-1B and similar visas, as another part of the buy American thing. I wonder which nationalities possessing such documents will still, like me, get into the country with an replacement alternative stamp?

(Update: I wrote this before it happened, but yes, it's now in the news)

The other part of this is the way that dual nationalities get sold. There's a list of special companies and particular countries that provide -er- services to help people get around. In at least one place you can simple hand over dosh to become a citizen. It's about the same amount as needed to buy a new Bentley, if you know what I mean.

It'd be daft to try to get, say, a U.N. Special Services Diplomatic passport, but there's other jus sanguinis (right of bloodline) countries like Italy or Ireland, where in the right circumstances, it is more about filling in the right forms.

These three are quite useful

Consultancies like that one close to the US Embassy in London are now running free seminars in certain areas like the Middle East, to help guide people through the options. I expect it is still tricky to get a pretty pink Singapore passport (2 years residence) or a Belgian E.U. passport (that's the one the Eurocrats are lining up for). Of course, typing in 'fake passports' to the internet wouldn't work, would it?

Maybe it's time to get a multipass?

drinking coffee and trying to confuse Alexa

Sitting in the kitchen drinking coffee, listening to a laid back acoustic playlist, I found the sound from the Alexa Echo a little bit boomy, so I tried "Alexa, turn down the bass." It seemed to work although the volume also seemed to go down. Then I tried "Alexa, turn up the treble." No volume increase but more treble. Then "Alexa, louder."

"Alexa turn living room up/down" seems to work the side lights in that room. "Alexa, Add three degrees to the temperature" works, although it is doing it in Fahrenheit whilst everything is set to Celsius here.

And Alexa hasn't gone rogue yet and ordered something on-line, because a TV programme told it to. "Alexa, buy [my product] with one-click". Only a matter of time before it happens.

Mainly good. Then to ask "Alexa, What is the Prime Directive?"

Bizarrely, that works as well.

startup

The other box-set I've been watching, albeit in a half-hearted way, is called "Startup". It's on Sparkle, which is the Sony streaming service also available in the UK via Amazon. It's about a group of people trying to start a Bitcoin style cyber-currency, largely built upon the proceeds of crime.

Compared with the stylisation of LA/Santa Monica-based Goliath, this one fails to hold real interest. There's a Miami-based plot that includes gangsters, guns, the dynamics of successful Cubans, less-well-off Haitians and the alternative Wall Street in the form of Miami's money laundering capital around Brickell Street.

It should make up a pretty good plotline, but somehow in amongst the sexed up scenes they have dropped Martin (Dr Watson) Freeman. He plays an implausible American cop who drinks fashionable coffee, cooks English-style sausage and bacon breakfast and wears his gun on a hip holster like a cowboy. They make him run about a bit but his role (like his American accent) seems to have a weird style over substance for much of the narrative. It's almost as if the writers are having a bit of snide fun with his character.

It feels like there was an awkward plot point that needed to be included and then the producers decide to do some stunt casting to appeal to the Brits. It is shame, because I thought Freeman did a decent job playing that out-of-control character in the Fargo I series a while back.

And unlike True Detective, Goliath or even Mr Robot, the Miami sense of place is far less evident. Sure they signpost a few locations from a rooftop and clip in some iffy over-saturated postcard style film, but it doesn't have that intimacy of place of a really good American crime series.

I won't give away plot points except to say that even some of the more dramatic events feel as if they have been filmed after rote-learning some camera angles. A decent Coen Brothers or similar would have found more twists.

Even the other central plot around computer software is left indistinct (compared with the precision in Mr Robot). Kind of "Here comes the science part".

And, I know, Freeman is not being Dr Watson, but some of the things he does as a cop wouldn't stand up very well to modern policing detection methods.

To my analysis, the main storyline almost stands up without the whole Freeman line, except for the need of an obvious point to create the tension in the story driven by the other three very complementary actors. There's large chunks with them doing their startup fundraising and playing off against other recognisable American actors who actually do hold attention. Indeed the pacing of the three American lead actors is completely different from the slowed down moodiness and long gazes of Freeman's scenes. Kind of we've paid for him, let's give him screen time.

I'm about half way through this and will watch the rest, but I can't help thinking that with a potentially strong premise this could have been so much better.

TUO YAW

I took a look at that UK Supreme Court Judgment when it was produced a couple of days ago.

To be honest, I found its 96 pages of legalese pretty hard to decipher, what with it lacking an executive summary, bottom line or similar section. Buried in clause 124 on page 36 of 96 was the bit that said that Parliament must take a vote on the triggering of Article 50. Roughly what the House of Lords report said last September in a third of the pages.

I found the whole Supreme Court thing couched in CYA-speak, so that it was difficult to pin anything directly on anyone, and it took a separate Press Release to explain the outcome to the mortals of the real world.

Then today, I noticed the 67 words of preamble and 50 words of the today's hastily assembled Article 50 trigger Bill and then 16 words describing a short title for the Bill. 133 words for the entire trigger. It's not the shortest bill ever (that is the Parliament (Qualification of Women) Act 1918)

Like those recent Executive Orders in the USA, we seem to be able to dispense a particularly "lite" form of bureaucracy when it suits.

The 50 main words of the Bill affect legislation from at least 1993-2017. Whilst numbers are not available for that whole period, up to 2014 there were 945 Acts of Parliament of which 231 implemented EU obligations, plus a further 33,160 statutory instruments including 4,283 EU obligations. Quite a bundle to begin to repurpose with those 50 words.

I wonder if we will see the stages of First Reading, Second Reading, Committee Stage and Third Reading in the Commons and then input by the Lords? and then a Royal Assent? All before the end of March and with Parliament due for a recess in a few days.

Game on?

200 million years of bird migration

After the Trump administration told the US Environment Protection Agency to shut up, I thought it was time to have a peek at what they are doing. It appears to be quite fascinating long term research which provides all manner of indicators about climate change.

There's a superb climate change report available from their web-site, at least until the on-boarding of their new digital strategist decrees whether or not it will still be available.

In the shorter term they have been forbidden from press releases, no blogging, reduction of webinars, no new content to be released and more. I suppose they need to be consistent with Trump's viewpoint on climate change, which may require some further adjustments somewhere.

I decided to take a look at the section about bird migration. Birds are supposed to be descendants of dinosaurs, which learned how to survive by small size and use of flight. It has seen them do pretty well for the last two hundred million years or so, as they scaled back from the velociraptor and adapted to the use of feathers. This little Scientific American graphic illustrates the story.

So when the centre of abundance for multiple species of birds moves northward over 40 miles during the last 50 years, it suggests that things must be getting warmer. And some of the species (about 48) have moved northwards by around 200 miles. Here's a little graphic from the EPA report.

Of course, if the birds are among nature's survivors then another interesting chart would be one that covered the effect of whatever is happening on human health. That gets covered in the report as well, along with one of those cause effect graphics, to show some of the main interdependencies.

But I'm wondering if this well-produced report, reviewed by plenty of industry experts, is about to be given the heave-ho? It doesn't seem to support the direction of some of the new administration's executive orders, so perhaps the new digital strategist will be making some adjustments?

Perhaps we will be told?

Update: I was going to post this tomorrow, but have brought it forward because the Trump Administration has now asked the EPA to remove its climate change section.

turbo cycling and watching goliath

I've been watching that Goliath series on box-set over the last few days whilst I try to get my cycling legs working again.

I suppose the show would be classed as a legal procedural and is about a big business doing something that may not be entirely law-abiding. I suspect they used the entire effects budget in the first scene.

The neo-noir show has Billy Bob Thornton as the lead character playing a broken hotshot lawyer who now lives in a motel in Santa Monica. There's several plot points that many of these legally derived shows have in common. In Better Call Saul, (the Bob Odenkirk show) there's an ex partner lawyer who has had a breakdown and now lives in a darkened room with an annoying aversion to electricity.

Check. In this show we get Thornton as the busted ex-partner and remarkably William Hurt as the melodramatic still-in-place partner with a sooo annoying habit who, yes, lives in a darkened office at the top of his tower block.

There's the Grisham/Badalucci-esque spirited female assistants on hand to help Thornton with the case, most of whom seem to work for nothing. Then there's Thornton's broken marriage, savvy teen daughter and ex-wife with a new lover who works for the opposing council.

The thing is, formulaic as it may be, I'm enjoying the show. Thornton's switches from slightly drunk to razor-sharp in the courtroom. The stealth of the big business trying to quash investigations. The brown lighting of Thornton's world to the sterile glass cubes within glass cubes where the Goliath action plays out.

And behind it all is a very good sense of coastal Los Angeles. It was genius to give Thornton a beaten up convertible (red Mustang, of course), because when he drives around you see so much more of the neighbourhood. Even I could recognise real streets and areas from my own experience so there was that quiet 'been there' thought through some parts of it.

I've still about three episodes left to watch, but with Thornton's understated play of the dialogue and great ensemble casting, this is really quite entertaining. I'd even watch another series, if they ever made it.

where to point the track?

Within a second of that Supreme Court ruling on Article 50 the tweetsters pulled their own triggers.

The score was on every pundit's door and moments later there were dooks and hisses about the sovereignty of Parliament.

In practice, everyone has been positioning their 'amendments' to the trigger for days. Even Mrs May said she'll put the final deal to Parliament as a kind of stress test. Labour will harrumph rather than block although Farron's lot will try to stall things unless the whole kit and caboodle goes beyond Mrs May's promise and to a second referendum.

Oh yes, a canvas bagful of ferrets is breaking into song.

The process is starting to run on rails now, starting with David Davis at 12:30 in the Commons.

There's still many awkward points, like the US/UK trade only being one third of the value of EU trade and China needing to get beyond the trouble at the power station let alone Tony Xia's Chinese-owned Aston Villa transfer news.

So, although track is being laid, the trick will be to know which way to point the self-laying track machine, before it runs over an edge.

pedal power, sunshine and doublethink

Last May was the first (short) time that the UK ran its entire power grid without coal all the way since 1882, although there was some subsequent scurrying to find enough power from other sources.

And last year, when I was out cycling, I would sometimes pass the edge of a nearby field, being converted for solar power. My picture at the top of the post is a frosty morning snapshot of one of the fields, taken a few days ago, when I passed it on the train.

Yes, by now, it is complete and in service, and I believe each of two nearby schemes is capable of producing a few megawatts of power. Compared with a 2000-3000 Mw power station, this isn't a lot, although it is sufficient to power the adjacent 1000 or so homes, at least when there's enough sunshine.

These local field schemes have been somewhat contentious. In one case the original site wasn't used, although an adjacent one was found and seems to suit the local population as well as the farmers. It changes the nature of some of the farmland, alongside the increasing poly-tunnels for fruit growing and now these mainly flat solar panels.

Most advertising of them add a few sheep running around to make it all look more picturesque. Eagle eyed may spot German sheep in this particular photo. German farmers soon discovered that the sheep were by far the best way to manage the grassland around the panels.

So now the UK's big energy agenda is to move from coal to natural gas, towards renewables (biomass) and to wind, tidal and solar power. Nuclear is still in there, assuming the fabled French/Chinese/British plants ever get built and don't just follow the Trumpian example of driving busy diggers around a muddy plot of land.

This British and European route towards decarbonisation is quite different from the new one advertised by America on their White House web site. Although their same description also expresses the need for responsible stewardship of the environment.

You can tell, I'm still getting used to the idea of post truth, alternative truth, newspeak and doublethink.

with cat like tread

Wandering around London is never dull, and over the life of this blog there's been many changes that start from an original glimpse or drawing and finish with the actual delivered item.

A quick example would be the new American Embassy, which was still a sugar cube sketch back in the day and now looks almost ready for use.

I see it more from the train than the roadside, because there's still building site paraphernalia around the actual area.

The taxi drivers are always full of stories of the price of the apartments opposite and although it is right next to the Nine Elms fruit and veg market, the market somehow seems to get edited out of most of the pictures.

The old embassy in Grosvenor Square is to become another Qatari-owned luxury hotel, like most of that particular part of Mayfair. So I'm not sure if yesterday's big protest will be the last one to convene in Grosvenor Square.

The route from the old US embassy to Trafalgar Square is just over a mile and fairly straightforward.

A new route from Nine Elms to Traf. Square would be more than twice as far and additionally would logically pass the Palace of Westminster itself. This could be tricky because of all of the rules about marches near to Parliament.

But, come to think of it, our Prime Minister is visiting the US President on Friday, so perhaps that will clear up any misunderstandings about respective roles and positions?

Meanwhile, here's one of my cheeky low sunlight snapshots of Parliament, from the currently uncrowded Westminster Bridge, featuring Charles Barry's architectural designs, and ahead of Parliament's own rebuild.

swamp replacement strategies?

Wading through the words and gestures...

Not sure that the swamp got drained exactly. More an overhaul of its inhabitants.

Now everyone blamed his old man
For making him mean as a snake
When Amos Moses was a boy
His daddy would use him for alligator bait
Tie a rope around his neck and throw him in the swamp