too early

I see a few newspapers published articles about the Greggs advent calendar before the commentary related to the sausage roll picture started.

The London Metro includes a picture of the nativity scene, with the sausage roll and a description about shepherds paying a nativity homage. No criticism from that paper, although I think they got their sheep-minding facts wrong. Even I can see the three pictured men are carrying gold, frankincense and myrrh.

I'll be watching to see if the Metro, Mirror and others now attempt to flip across to the critical bandwagon.

There's an indulgent hypocrisy to all of this, given most people's secular outlook. Office parties, booze, gifts, Festivus '97, winter sales. I'm reminded of that story about expelling the merchants from the temple, somewhat overlooked whilst we drift towards this year's Yule.

Meanwhile, Greggs continues via its longstanding Greggs Foundation, to donate to 450 children breakfast clubs across the UK and quietly donates its unsold food to numerous UK food banks, where the amount has increased 16 fold over the last four years.

shorting the UK

They say that instability worries the stock markets, so an outfit like the tax-avoiding Barclay Brothers, owners of the Torygraph and based in Monaco and Brecqhou in the Channel Islands can wreak havoc with their Правда-like stories.

I suppose it is a way to make money from Brexit news. I expect there are others with similar ideas.

Here's how. Create disruption. Sell short. Sell shares you don't own and buy them back on the instability pushing the prices south. Make sure it's all done through offshore arrangements and then there's no tax bills to worry about.

Here's the last few days on the market, with today's news creating a further wipeout.

rise of the fast idiots

We all know that Dan Ashcroft was right with his predictions of the cereal cafes and twit machines which invaded Hipston and other oft-bearded areas.

I still occasionally watch an episode of that Nathan Barley series, which is so ancient that it had to predict the likes of Twitter and smoked salmon coffee before they were, y'know, things.

Now much of Ashcroft's world has happened, to the extent that some people watch the TV show on YouTube and have to ask if it is meant to be a spoof. Meanwhile the nextgen worldview variants are powered up, with ever increasing artificial intelligence. There's earnest debates on the radio about the rise of robots to replace workers.

Some of it seems bizarre, like the camera built into an oven to check how the cakes are coming along, and the full sized screen on a fridge to show its contents without opening the door.

In technology we used to talk about a solution looking for a problem. I sense that we have passed that point now, as many of the Generation Y and even some Zs are reaching positions of influence in product design.

I can see the temptation put ever-cheaper electronics into everything, but it can all go awry. Our previous oven was touch-screen controlled but would require a complete re-boot about once every two weeks. The built-in microwave needed about six separate menu selections to start, compared with the prior one which needed one twist of a dial.

The new smart radiator controls miss a point. Generally you don't need to continuously micro adjust the heat output of individual home radiators and an occasional twist to, say, position 3 can suffice. Below are a couple of thermostat examples. The one on the left is manual and twisted to position 3. The one on the right is battery operated, requires a wi-fi connection and can then be set by the arrows or a phone. I notice it is also low on battery at the moment.

Of course, I do play around with the home technology and have some of it for lights and television control simplification (one handset instead of five etc). It's that question of balance.

So will my self-driving car be capable of negotiating twisty Devon single track lanes with passing places. Will it be able to convincingly reverse when a tractor is ahead? Will Alexa learn to stop interrupting television shows with random outbursts of non-comprehension?

Can Google learn that when I ask for "train Exeter to Paddington" (A famous and high-speed route from the dawn of the railways direct to London), that I don't want to go to Paddington, Warrington.

We seem to be at an interesting point. Like Dan Ashcroft's rise of the idiots, I suspect we now have to add in a couple of other factors. The click generation with it's less than 140 character attention span coupled with an abundance of high speed. They used to call a computer a fast idiot; perhaps its time has arrived?

at the beach

Just because it is almost officially winter doesn't mean we can't visit the beach.

That's the second time in the last few days that we've dined by the water's edge. Last time outside a pub and this time a small restaurant looking out to sea. In between I strolled a different beach along the evening sand.

Winter can wait just a while longer.

fixing the non-charging iPhone

My iPhone has been erratically charging for a couple of weeks. It kinda sneaks up that it isn't charging when I've had a couple of days where it has been down to the red battery level unexpectedly.

I checked the various charging cables and noticed they needed to be wiggled before the phone would charge. Then I remembered the occasional need to blow into the lightening port. This time no difference and I couldn't find the canned air to give more of a blast. Instead I found a small screwdriver to pick carefully at the lint which had worked its way into the slot. A surprising amount, easily enough to stop electrical connections. Of course, if I were telling someone else to try this I'd suggest using a non conductive material such as a toothpick.

Normal charging (including through a charging dock) has resumed.

07:02

Further Emissions

I've been keeping an eye on the moves to make London's air cleaner with the various new congestion charges. My own car already pays the £10.50 per day charge when it is in London for not being electric or hybrid. If you don't enrol in the automatic scheme then it is £11.50 per day.

My vehicle is a Blue Efficiency model, to Euro 5 standards, which were the most efficient available at the time of purchase. As a result, it dodges the extra charge that is due to start in April next year. That's the T-Charge, which is a further £10 per day.

It starts for diesel cars up to Euro 4, so my Euro 5 is a pass.

But then, in 2019, the ULEZ is being introduced. Ultra Low Emissions Zone. That's the one for less than Euro 6 diesel and will affect my car (if I still have it). The daily charge for that is £12.50, so at that point my car would cost £11.50 + £12.50 per day in Central London. £24 before parking is enough to consider other options, although I suppose many with company accounts or the well-heeled will consider this simply a cost of doing business. For anyone with an older vehicle at Euro 4 level or lower it is even tougher with a cost of £34 per day.

I'm all for cleaner air and am a regular cyclist for shorter journeys. I also use public transport around the centre comprising a mix of bus and tube. I still find it galling that I bought diesel when we were all told to, that the mpg was much better, that the common rail versions were all clean and nothing like the old smelly diesels of yesteryear.

It is consequently annoying to be penalised at the extent envisaged, because new discoveries have shown the previous science, marketing and good citizenship to be wrong.

We are also in the middle of a cycle of manufacturers' semi-updates to vehicles. The manufacturers are figuring out how to make batteries, how to make them last, how to redesign the cars for them to fit, how the replacements will be fitted after about 4-5 years. The list goes on. They also have heaps invested int ht current production lines and will no doubt want to keep it run sign as long as possible. As a comparison of longevity I notice that Ford still fit drum brakes to the rear wheels of many of their vehicles.

I also have a suspicion that whilst a Euro 5 diesel car might last 8-10 years, the substitute semi-electric will have a considerably shorter life because of the cost of renewing the power packs.

Guess I'll need to keep an eye on Mr Musk's share price.

beyond the X, to the gravity defying Y-Phone.

It may defy physics, but it's a bit more advanced than the X.

rewards of chaos

It is getting very confusing. Despite the quantity of meetings that Patel had during her 'holiday' in Israel, there's some pieces that still don't stack up with the news reports.

There's that minuted meeting on 22 August where Mr Oren, Deputy Minister at the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, told Middle East minister Alistair Burt and British Ambassador David Quarrey that Ms. Patel had a successful meeting with Mr Netanyahu.

It says they in turn told Downing Street. But perhaps they forgot. Or it could be a fib, I suppose? But wait, they are diplomats, so they must be telling the truth. Maybe its a symptom of the chaos.

Then there's the London meetings, back in September. There's actually a tweet with a photograph of Patel and Erdan standing in the House of Commons.

Now this would be a very badly kept secret, or maybe there's a fib somewhere in the process? Or more chaos?

The strangest one is when Patel met Rotem in New York on September 18th. It says that the meeting wasn't disclosed after advice from Number 10 because of potential embarrassment to the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Apparently the FCO gets sensitive about having things happen which it feels are its own territory.

So was there a cover up, or is it a fib that Number 10 didn't know? Perhaps put it down to chaos?

I'll also take the broader view of Number 10. It's not one person. It's a full dither of civil servants, with commensurate stackable in-trays. So who knows where the isolated information has finally landed? And who bothered to forward it anywhere? Perhaps it was all chaotic?

As a slight aside, I used to travel to Israel and remember some of the weird meeting pressures. My typical post-flight hotel arrival time was around 5 a.m, and my hosts for whatever meetings I was attending would invariably have things booked for later that same morning.

Despite a main purpose there would always be extra meetings snuck in, and they'd often have sensitive connotations. Meet this security firm. Meet this supplier operating with special tax advantages. Today we are meeting the Army, but outside the barracks in a metal-detector surrounded cafe. I became wise to this after a while, but it seemed to be a part of the local culture to attempt these extra things, so the thought of Patel's 12 meetings organised by a fixer doesn't particularly surprise me, and could easily have been run over just a couple of days.

But back to the UK.

Boris Johnson has wanted his department to absorb DfID, calling it “a colossal mistake in the 1990s to divide the Department for International Development from the Foreign Office”. No great surprise if there's no love lost during the recent exchanges, then.

And behind the monied scenes, let's not forget that DfID uncovered some dubious practices about how foreign aid has been offered from the UK. There were the stolen papers from DfID allegedly used for Business Development by a well-known firm of contractors referred to in tabloid circles as foreign aid fat-cats.

Some quite complicated agendas then.

There's too many half-truths in all of it. More like a government-wide malaise. Instead of strong and stable we get chaos and lies.

Johnson makes it up on the hoof. The last few days illustrate his lack of contrition related to that prisoner situation, but it is only one of his series of blunders which are still not being brought to an end.

And Davis, with his own quoted 50-60 Brexit sector analyses which, now they are being asked for, are mysteriously incomplete.

But May doesn't need to do anything. No-one wants her job at the moment.

a roundabout route

I do use those flight radar tracking systems sometimes. In fact I'll be using it tonight when I'm at the airport later.

Today it seems to have been used with superabundance on twitter to track that inbound Kenyan 787 Dreamliner (5Y-KZB).

Some remarked upon the apparent changes of direction, but this is a pretty standard incoming flight pattern, banking around the dome, with a good view of London from the starboard window seats. It's easy to spot the famous landmarks, The Eye, The Shard, Palace of Westminster, Downing Street.

Of course, they are passed at high speed. The plane is slowing from a few hundred miles per hour as it descends towards LHR.

Then the disembarkation. It's fun to get one of those limos from the steps instead of having to go along the corridors from the jetway, mingle with everyone else and then pickup the luggage.

Although, I've never had the three car treatment, with a whole convoy of black vehicles to accompany me back towards London. I see the perimeter roads were used to good effect, which is a definite preference for me also, when there's traffic around.

Helicopters hovering over Parliament and Whitehall are quite a common sound, but there's usually something happening at the time, like a protest, or a big event. This time we may hear about a resignation, but it's still not the big oaf's turn.

Even the way May enters the building through the back garden can be something of a circuitous metaphor. Yet, outside Number 10, the media with a lower budget wait for the outcome. Will May play it for a sacking or will Patel resign? Will the noise from it be enough to quell other criticisms of the shaky and wobbling leadership?

The helicopter spin gives us an answer.

taxing problems

It's a pretty car, isn't it? Not a run-of-the-mill Cayman, but a 718-GT4. I actually prefer it in the yellow, rather than one of the understated silver colours. I know, everyone says get a 911, but I somehow prefer the shape of this one.

Since the financial crash red 911s seemed to get a bit of a bad reputation. Then Porsche playfully named their car after a tax haven. I can't wait for the Porsche Paradise.

But wait - I just remembered - my favourite hangout in Saint Tropez is Senequier, which is that red-tabled cafe on the front, right by where Porsche owners already run the Paradis meeting every year.

To be honest, it's easier to arrive by water, rather than to drive around. I'd start from Sainte Maxime and make the short crossing.

There's always a a fair share of rich folk hanging around the harbour, but no obvious signs of anything untoward. The old adage used to be that the Tories would go down through sleaze and Labour through corruption. Sitting at a table people-watching it could be tempting to try to make those classifications. The state-less jet set don't seem to be affected in quite the same way by the tussles of politics. Indeed, even with all of the current disruptions the FTSE is still doing okay.

So back in the UK, if David Davis has blown the Brexit negotiation, and Theresa May is ineffective as a Prime Minister, then it would normally be time for another reshuffle, or even another election. That'd bring even more uncertainty into the system and I suppose there is enough already.

The challenge for all the usual contenders is multiple. Take a look at the bookies' odds. So unimaginative. It really is the wrecking crew at its finest. There's the buffoon or that 18th Century pinstriped shoemaker. Another contender is the very man who is fouling up the negotiations.

I suppose David Davis might have thought he'd be in with a leadership chance and consequently have a hop-skip-and-a-jump to free himself from the negotiations. He could have hospital passed it away to someone he didn't like. Heck, at this rate he might even need to start working a full week. But then again, the November recess for Parliament starts today.

Too late for a Davis sidestep now, and probably too late to do any sort of proper Brexit recovery. Boris is also too wily to want to take on the job, unless it is presented as a full rescue mission. Like everyone else, he knows that the current position is career limiting for whoever is in charge.

But I suppose there is the usual media baron conspiracy to keep a few people out of the limelight until the deals need to be done.

So whilst the chancellor gets ready to knock a few pence off beer, the Westminster elite and even the Royals can shuffle their funds further towards the Caymans.

scaffold time?

Well, here we are in November, the point at which I've decided that loner David Davis has blown the Brexit negotiation. There's so much other diversionary noise around at the moment, with abundant sleaze oozing from Westminster, so it is becoming even easier to become distracted.

Many of the 'secret' papers about to be released have already had airings in other formats, through the consultants that wrote them in the first place. Their general tenet is gloom and doom, which was mainly hidden through the lies of the referendum.

But like a gold rush, there's plenty of bystanders prepared to take money from those intent on the original task.

Now it has taken a 'humble address' to parliament to get these various reports into the limelight so that they can be released. There's two ways to issue them as well; copy them onto a memory stick and give them to someone to manage, or to start a 12 week prognostication about whether this constitutes an opposition motion and then create a committee to redact the papers before they can be seen. Perhaps the current state of Big Ben's tower and the almost hidden clock face is a metaphor for the way that Parliament is operating?

But then, I suppose playing an Erskine May contempt of parliament card might assist the release of the documents? Although, even if it happens quickly, it would still show that those in the negotiation have little regard for transparency. The high turnover of senior ministers and even a permanent secretary in the Brexit department become another symptom of the malaise.

Until recently I'd assumed a further Tory shuffle would require new people to pick up the hot potatoes, much as the churlish Cameron, Osborne, Johnson and Gove did way back when. I suppose it could still happen.

There's under a year to get the big stuff in place now, which is shaping as either unlikely or only to be achieved in a desperate way.