speculating with brexit numbers, because somebody needs to

Another week or more and I still haven't seen anything directly useful from the Brexit planning, so I thought I'd put together my own draft tables.

There's been various high level figures bandied about, but I thought I'd produce something which showed some sort of run rate of payments.

These are my basic planning assumptions:

• The net contribution from UK to EU per annum is around £8.5bn after the rebates etc.
• There will be an ongoing commitment to the EU post Brexit, particularly if we expect to do something relevant around tariffs.
• There's an awkward pension gap which UK will be obliged to pay. I'm fairly appalled by this, especially paying ongoing pensions to the original UK representatives who saw their job to undermine the EU, and the eurocrats rushing to get Belgian citizenship, but it will still need to be covered.
• There will be some kind of projects charge for things that UK has already inescapably committed
• There will be some kind of 'pain of exit' charge. I have called it the Exit Fee - needed so that the EU can show other members that it is better to stay in. This could, in other ways be considered a bribe or a revenge factor.

Rather than produce one table, I've produced three, to get a 'snake in the tunnel' approach. A `UK aggressive' (minimum), a 'Typical' and an 'EU Aggressive' (maximum). The figures for the three come out as follows:


It gives a range of all-in costs of between €109bn and €174bn.

I can make the €108bn look like €83.4bn fairly easily by removing the pre Brexit run-rate of payments. It is still a long way north of the tabloid €34bn being speculated.

It is fairly easy to discredit the hypothesised €34bn because it is only around 4 years of the €8.5bn run-rate.

Here's the same table in more detail. Come to think of it, the raggeldy opposition should probably have done something like this, instead of being broken and ineffectual.

Of course my 15 minutes of spreadsheeting is unfinessed. There's probably more options to chip away at the numbers. I show payments staggered over a five-year period. This could also be tweaked as well as the start point could be re-phased.

Politically this range of options provides more ways to explain things as well as subtly continuing payments beyond the end of Brexit. Of course they are under a new guise and it is in return for the relevant tariffs to be easily agreed.

Doing a simple exercise like this at least begins to illustrate parameters and positioning.

There's a pretty hefty DExEU team now in place.

Roll on some observable action and, most importantly, outcomes.

breakfast in the pub, with snow

Saturday morning, in the pub along the road, for breakfast.

Lightly snowing outside, but not enough to put off a couple of tables of walkers, ready to head off, complete with a dog.

It's part of one of my bicycle routes, so I know the area quite well.

We settled into our breakfast, me with the Eggs Benedict, more the English way than Delmonico's.

A few cups of coffee, some orange juice and general chatter. The pub gently filled and by now it was mid-morning. Some louder noises and I spotted the dog again. The walkers had been out, completed their entire walk, come back and were now ordering from the bar.

We must have been there longer than we thought.

post reality blank paper golden fleece manipulation strategies

I get the corrupt republic argument. "Only in a corrupt republic, in corrupt times, can a tyrant rise." Like the 'ambitious liberalism' argument that over-hugging can make everything go a bit hippy-dippy.

So we get the rise of populism. Differing degrees with Brexit and Trumpton. Voices of the generally unheard people protesting that life ain't good. Unless there's a selfie in it somewhere.

There's the irony then of electing billionaire bullies to prominence or placing unbelievers into roles where they must turn 180 degrees. There's also a free fall element to the whole set-up, where consequences are hardly considered and it becomes all about the activity rather than about a planned outcome.

The Americans are doing it with the rat-a-tat-tat of executive orders. Blank sheets that can say anything and can adopt the ready-fire-aim philosophy except there's really no guidance system beyond the murky rich white man circle now in power. More a case of feeding the swamp than draining it.

And here, in the UK, the ready-fire-aim continues, although our blank sheets remain steadfastly blank. We are managing with a preoccupation on whatever happens to be the current activity rather then the effect we wish to achieve. Busyness rather than business. The PM should, by now, be kicking over tables of the people running the teams that are supposed to be having the ideas to come up with something useful.

We have a few set-pieces coming forward. Trump visits the Queen. It reminds me of high profile business trips that include a 'jolly'.

A visit to a revolutionary new form of housing development with a side trip to the adjacent Monaco casino. Or a visit to the R&D facility in Texas the same week as SWSX. You get the idea. So presumably Trump will want to play nicely with the UK until he has added his trip in a golden carriage to the ego wall next to his Playboy cover. Thumbs up.


I was going to make a quick PS of Stevie and Donnie peeping out of the carriage, but I think I'll leave that one to the imagination.

The Steve Bannon cover of Time this week already makes the point about the economic nationalist manipulation behind Trump's desk.

Come to think of it, I doubt that Trump's entirely self-contained ego would ever admit it.

So instead of Trump already in the carriage, I thought I'd imagine the type of heraldic order he could borrow.

He clearly likes this sort of thing, what with his yellow and purple triangular coat of arms, surrounded by gold and with a big T in the middle.

It didn't take me long to think of something appropriate.

Originating from 1430s Belgium, but with distinctly Spanish overtones, along with the obvious gold finery.

Yes, the Order of the Golden Fleece.

I know, my Photoshoppery isn't up to much, but this is only intended as a rough draft. It's too early for Trump to be awarded the American Golden Fleece Award (which is all about wasting public money). He's been too busy as he puts it 'being smart' and not paying Federal Taxes.

I still remember my first visit to Trump Tower, many years ago. I was overcome by its use of blingy gold. Probably part of Trump's unsentimental approach. You can imagine the order 'Make it gold. Very gold. Good gold. Very very good gold.'

Back in those days we laughed it off as a kind of Narcissistic Personality Disorder.

The thing is, by the measures of money, business and politics, he has continued to be immensely successful since that time. That's even if some of his methods, like trash-talking opponents, bullying, lack of grace, misogyny, grandstanding, virtue trumpeting, not paying suppliers and re-inventing the truth wouldn't usually hold up to scrutiny.

Watch as populism turns into outsiderism.

a million light years watching OA

I see The OA is being commissioned for another series. Good news because the original series has a kind of indie frontier story telling.

It took me a while to work out that its main protagonist, Prairie played by Brit Marling, had also created the idea and written much of it.

It's a kind of Russian doll of a story with multiple layers and at times you are not sure if you are going down or up a level. I liked the way it dabbled with genres and enjoyed the playfulness of its approach. I spotted this recent interview with Brit Marling, on CBS, and it gives some insights into what is a fairly unique kind of show.

I'm pretty sure there's some arty references too. There's a hut on a tundra at one point, evoking a Malevich landscape before he fully hit on the basic geometry of supremacist art.

And later, Malevich also painted the five white houses, which could become part of a season 2 inspiration. Oh yes, the 5s and 7s seem to play quite a part.

Another cultural clincher for me is what's inside one of the places that Prairie visits.

I've always liked Yayoi Kusama's work and there's a set of well known pieces called Infinity Mirrored Rooms. Hard to describe, without the experience, but here is a picture of one that was in the Tate.

The rest of the title of the piece is The Souls of Millions of Light Years Away. And yes, it fits. Catch my drift, there's some depth to the storytelling, although you can't be sure how much is reliable, and which things are imagined.

I'll be looking out for more of this and maybe even some Love is Calling in the new season.

checking progress towards my garmin 2017 targets

I've just about caught up with my planned year to date cycling. I was a long way behind at the start of the year as a result of the spluttery bug.

I'm also pretty sure that there will be other times this year when the cycling has to take a pause, so I'd better make progress whilst the sun don't shine.

The graph shows it was only part way through January before my first ride and as a result I was 80 to 108 miles behind my 'pace' target right from the start.

I know it is only a bit of fun but it still feels good to be getting 'ahead', even if it is only against a self-imposed target.

More fun at the moment is looking at my 'Blue' target (that's my easy one), which is already 45% complete.

last night I reached one of the Noooo! moments in Fortitude 2

There are some TV places where, if you lived there, you'd probably leave. Why would anyone stay in Midsomer? or Albert Square? Or that sunny island in the one about paradise. The problem with them all is that there's a high chance you'll be bumped off, swindled, trapped in a burning building, poisoned or similar.

It's the same with Fortitude, which is in its second series now. Actually, I think it would be fascinating to visit the real place, with its majestic scenery, wild climate and so on.

There's even a promotional video saying 'come visit'.

Of course, nothing can be what it seems. The first season has a high body count, including some of the original stars of the show. Now we get series 1 survivors like the island's governor Sofie Gråbøl as Hildur Odegard as well as newbies like fisherman Michael Lennox robustly played by Dennis Quaid.

I won't allude to the series 1 plot premise, although it is fair to say that there's new danger right from the opening sprockets of this second series. Even some items of closure from Series 1 can have an unexpected twist that makes the viewer slightly uncertain about possible recurrences.

I'm in mid series at the moment and have recently passed one of the more significant 'Nooo!' points where something so shocking happens that you wonder how the rest of the series can play out.

That's not to say there aren't plenty of other freaky moments in the show. I've only watched this one late at night, with the ambient speakers switched on to provide extra wind and snow effects. Anyone who has watched Alien in the dark during the sequences crawling around the darkened space ship will be familiar with the feeling.

Scenically, a Scandinavian science research lab can make a perfectly good substitute for the well-lit area of a space ship and there's still plenty of excuses to walk around in science-fiction type protective clothing.

That's a clever aspect of Fortitude. The setting gives such a vast range of textures. The stark whiteouts of blizzards. The sun kissed peaks on a fine day. Darkness with blood auroras overhead. Brown pub interiors at least until the power fails. Scan-wegian architect designed town halls. Guest houses with plenty of doors, hiding secrets. It's all there.

I can understand why the police in the town seem to pull their guns so frequently.

There's scarcely a shed to be examined or run down mine shaft that won't be a likely source of big trouble.

Add a few wild animals into the mix, stir gently and let the mayhem commence.

And I've realised I will need altered states of consciousness to get through the last part of this series.

Over 16s trailer below...

Super Bowl beverages and transport create controversy

I know the Super Bowl is supposed to be about American football. However, the NFL kind of football has sections of play that last about 5 seconds and then everyone has to get in a huddle again for a restart.

It makes the game very stop-start, which I suppose is good for the advertisers. It seems to be about the advert breaks rather than the game, with everyone building special adverts just for the show.

I just knew the 'Advocados from Mexico' one would be good.

That's a problem watching Super Bowl on UK telly. The adverts are removed and we get men in suits in a studio demonstrating blocking moves instead. The studio time is almost as long as the game time.

Okay here's the other bit of the Advocados from Mexico. Subliminal.


So UK TV would have missed this Budweiser advert about two immigrants inventing the all American beers Bud and Busch. It doesn't seem to have gone down too well with certain folk.

We did get the coin toss on regular telly.

Cut from studio to ex President Bush rolling onto the field. He flips the coin and it falls under a cameraman's monopod. They announce the result.

Annnddd its another advert break - or in the UK back to the studio again whilst the Americans get 90 seconds on the latest Ford car initiatives and look at a cat with a box over its head.

Not a bad advert actually, with Nina Simone 'I Wish I Knew How It Would Feel To Be Free' (gasp...but it is also that UK Film Night theme tune) and Bryan Cranston doing the voiceover.

Ford are promoting their Westfield World Trade Centre hub, which is like their version of the long-established L'Atelier Renault in the Champs Élysées.

Then back to the action. In fairness the Americans have found a way to speed up some parts of the game. It's legal in some situations to pass the ball forward.

A touchdown doesn't actually require to be touched down on the ground, like rugby try would. But then, the Americans don't seem to like kicking the ball. They even get someone else to hold it for the equivalent of a drop-kick.

Hold on. Time for another car adverts. The Merc AMG one is directed by the Coen brothers.

It also requires some skill to decide which is the best UK coverage.

The BBC went for a more realistic colouring than Sky Sport Mix HD which seemed to turn up the saturation.

I did prefer the latter, although both of them seemed to have quite pokey studios, with BBC actually getting one that looked as if it could directly see the game.

Okay here's another advert break.

This one is for...Cars.

Audi this time, but there's an edge. If Mercedes went for an all-American theme - Born to be wild, Peter Fonda etc., then Audi went for equal pay for women.

Yep a bit of politics for the Super Bowl.

And back in the game there's some scoring, with different pundits selecting each of the teams.

I can't help thinking that there's a quiet sporting agenda though. If you don't come from Atlanta or New England then it seems to be about wanting the New England Patriots to lose.

Advert time.

A bit more politics with this one.

The dark Handmaid's Tale which is set in the military dictatorship of the Republic of Gilead (formerly the United States of America), ruled over by Old Testament religious fanaticism. 'kay.

By now the scores are clicking up. But you know what? It must be time for a longer commercial break.

How about this one for Pepsi, which lights up the sky with branding?

Intel supplied the 500 drones used to make an American flag and Pepsi logo, although that part of the show was like the Chinese Olympics section, where it had to be recorded and was therefore 'Run VT'.

However, the spectacular Lady Gaga performance during which she managed to pull off singing Woody Guthrie's 'This Land was made for you and me', as well as her own diversity anthem 'Born This Way'.

I was impressed that she snuck some messaging in without it really showing too overtly. A well deserved mike drop and body drop at the end.

I guess after that it's best to just record the rest and watch it later on 30x.

Maybe hunt out some more of the adverts? I've even learned that the Big Mac now comes in three sizes. It had to happen.

so-called leader in the high tower and other tropes

I suddenly realised that this version of 2017 is probably an accidental parallel world. I must have stumbled when I walked past that worm hole along Whitehall and the flash of light wasn't a cluster of brightly lit cyclists, it was that moment of passing across the gap.

Luckily I've read that Philip K Dick novel as well as watching the TV show, so I know there will be another blinding flash as things return to the old kind of normal.

Come to think of it, our friends across the pond are still largely in favour of what is happening there, with apparently more people supporting recent actions than the vociferous ones opposing.

But that's where alternative facts make it so difficult to keep up. In that TV show they had to add a whole significant Obergruppenführer John Smith character just to represent the new normalised viewpoint.

The Rufus Sewell character was written in to help us viewers keep track of the popular viewpoint. I can't really spot an equivalent character amongst the Kuschner, Miller, Bannon, Conway, Spicer, Priebus, Punch and Judy of the new gang.

In the Philip K Dick alternative world, sometimes the characters used the I Ching to try to figure things out. Hexagram 29 popped out.

In our so-called reality, the so-called president maybe isn't heeding this hexagram's words about the abyss.

"By growing used to what is dangerous, a man can easily allow it to become part of him. He is familiar with it and grows used to evil. With this he has lost the right way, and misfortune is the natural result."

The hexagram's warning is supposed to be to keep a level head during a difficult situation that has caused anger, frustration, and despair. And below is this week's Economist cover, by the way, not a Photoshopped remake.

Another source of alternative reality truth comes from 'The Grasshopper Lies Heavy' which is the inner novel/film, used within High Castle to illustrate the link back to the other world.

Philip K Dick used Ecclesiastes 12:5 as the source for the grasshopper reference : "the grasshopper shall be a burden" - the full King James version is somewhat bleak as it describes the peoples' fear of the one on high.

As I look to the 'United' States, I can't help think that there's probably another section from Ecclesiastes (10:12), which may set the alternative reality tone: The words of a wise man's mouth are gracious; but the lips of a fool will swallow up himself.

Back to the man in the golden tower. He thinks he can fly above the so-called law. He and his close followers are protected by the iconography of the little yellow and red triangle (surrounded by gold, of course). A new kind of symbol to fear, maybe? It's not as cool as my Man from UNCLE badge though.

He's changing the language. The meaning of words. Of facts. Facts. The use of repetition. Repetition. His acolytes do it too. They all do it. Use repetition.

That old marketing adage. Tell 'em what you're gonna tell 'em. Tell 'em. And then tell 'em what you told 'em. It's okay, I won't repeat it.

But it might be interesting to see the marketing in tonight's Super Bowl. How about Margaret Atwood's story of male authoritarianism The Handmaid's Tale, anyone? I somehow doubt whether Dove soap will be allowed to advertise? My favourite may well be the swirliness of Advocados from Mexico? It could even be the return worm hole portal.

In the mean time, I got to thinking. In the alternative America shown in High Castle, wouldn't the language also get changed to German? Aber warten. Hier ist es. Auf Deutsch.

blurry white snow job vs it is what it is

I had a quick look at that new White Paper. All 76 pages of it. Yes, I did notice the 14 weeks holiday for UK folk. Oops. Maybe that Steve Bell cartoon last week was right?

I was expecting the Exit and Partnership White Paper to contain something akin to a plan. Nothing too detailed but maybe a few key steps or something that would move the ball along. If the Article 50 trigger is pulled sometime in March (31st anyone?) then there had jolly well better be a plan of the next steps and their allocated budget of time.

Does David Davis provide this? Why no.

He reframes the 12 points that Theresa May issued a week or so ago at Lancaster House. Admittedly there's more verbiage behind everything, but it does slightly smack of a re-purposed ONS report which has had some EU exit commentary added. In consultant speak it's 'the thickening' but not the main report.

I'd have liked to have seen the timetable and maybe a sense of the priorities. I decided to apply a very coarse lens to the various topics. I've called it 'Actionable?' and it's to determine whether the things listed are directly actionable by the UK Government, and to a degree how much they are within the power of the government.

A few conceivably are actionable, but there's a whole bunch that still need the acceptance or indulgence of the parties with whom we would need to negotiate. I can understand that there was a need to provide something substantive to support the thin 50 word exit Bill, but I'm not sure that a snow job of verbiage without determined actionable topics really cuts it. Our Mr Brexit is a little bit too blurry for this stage in the game.

Some might say that this White Paper amounts to the Playbook for the negotiations. I'm less convinced. It feels to me more like an Appendix to a Playbook, which has pulled together some useful statistics. Maybe it is a holding position, but the team behind this have had a lot longer than the last week to get their act together. It is kind of frightening.

Theresa May needs to be banging on the doors of the people supposed to be running this to demand the actual Playbook. The Plan. The options. The leverage. The Budget. The one-off cost. The ongoing annualised run-rate post exit. You get my drift.

Perhaps the press and media will see it differently? They could spend ages poring over the minutiae of the stuff included, but I'm not sure how this really drives the position much further forward.

god emperors and wonder cards

Playing board games last month, one facet was to get a "golden card".

Game dependent, it might be 'Get out of Jail, Free', 'Take half of the other players profit', 'Immunity from the thing they ask you to do' and so on.

The thing was, you'd be hard pressed to collect even two or three of these wonder cards in an average game, let alone the ability to use them all.

Some might say that the board games are not realistic because of this, and that people don't get that many carte blanche moments where they can write their own fortunes.

Although, if you get elected to the highest office in America, this seems to an available form of wish fulfilment. I can't quite fathom how the man with the pen can just keep writing new orders for the way the whole country will run.

It doesn't seem necessary to go through any sort of governing process, just a kind of Leto II Atreides God Emperor approach where it is just made so.

Now Leto II was a character from Frank Herbert's Dune series. Leto II became part man and part worm, and had sole control of a valuable melange/spice which gave humans various powers. His world-view derived from a range of other controlling cultures, using their worst crossovers as his way of working. It made him a despotic and ruthless ruler of everything. He kept humanity as a prisoner for 3,500 years.

The original book cover depicted the God Emperor, before it was replaced with the modern graphics, which in true Douglas Adams style blended the 'trilogy' of Dune books together. Yes, this was book four of six.

But there is something about that face. The hairstyle. I don't know...

Anyway, Frank Herbert's novels were science fiction, but without the gadgets. So called 'soft' science fiction. A future galaxy with parallels in the earth. Herbert explored the psychology and philosophies more than the way that flip-up communicators would work.

He wrote that governments suffer a recurring problem because power attracts pathological personalities. That power can be magnetic to the corruptible. That a drunkenness and addiction can occur.

Perhaps only the truly [insert your own word here] get to use as many wonder cards as they like. We shall see.

So what happened to Leto II? Let's just say it didn't end well.

suitability of multipass vs galactic republic id?

Pre ESTA days, I used to have one of those long-term USA visas. Come to think of it, I suppose its time limit was described as 'indefinite'. So true.

One day I was travelling alone, re-entering the US through somewhere like JFK and was stopped by the border official.

He called to another person who escorted me over into a small side room, like in a Jason Bourne movie. I was asked a few questions by one person whilst another one hovered in the background. They explained they were revoking my visa. Its full page glory was unceremoniously cancelled and I was given a new mini stamp in the passport with a time limit.

In its own small way, this was quite unnerving, yet the actual process was probably only 15 minutes, admittedly at the end of a six hour flight.

Because of my frequent travelling, in those days I used to keep a couple of passports running, one which I called my 'clean' passport and the other one which has a few more stamps in it. Even that process changed as the various authorities started to move over to those whole page stickers with photographs on them. And there was a certain country which I visited that would put their stamps onto paper to be kept with the passport for the duration of the visit (wink wink).

Even now I order the extra pages version of the passport.

But with new border controls being created, I'm wondering about the whole passport thing again. Aside from the shhh! fake camouflage 'passports' which anyone can get (like British Honduras or Western Sahara), there's the places that have lesser rules.

I'm guessing that the US will once again rein in the H-1/H-1B and similar visas, as another part of the buy American thing. I wonder which nationalities possessing such documents will still, like me, get into the country with an replacement alternative stamp?

(Update: I wrote this before it happened, but yes, it's now in the news)

The other part of this is the way that dual nationalities get sold. There's a list of special companies and particular countries that provide -er- services to help people get around. In at least one place you can simple hand over dosh to become a citizen. It's about the same amount as needed to buy a new Bentley, if you know what I mean.

It'd be daft to try to get, say, a U.N. Special Services Diplomatic passport, but there's other jus sanguinis (right of bloodline) countries like Italy or Ireland, where in the right circumstances, it is more about filling in the right forms.

These three are quite useful

Consultancies like that one close to the US Embassy in London are now running free seminars in certain areas like the Middle East, to help guide people through the options. I expect it is still tricky to get a pretty pink Singapore passport (2 years residence) or a Belgian E.U. passport (that's the one the Eurocrats are lining up for). Of course, typing in 'fake passports' to the internet wouldn't work, would it?

Maybe it's time to get a multipass?

drinking coffee and trying to confuse Alexa

Sitting in the kitchen drinking coffee, listening to a laid back acoustic playlist, I found the sound from the Alexa Echo a little bit boomy, so I tried "Alexa, turn down the bass." It seemed to work although the volume also seemed to go down. Then I tried "Alexa, turn up the treble." No volume increase but more treble. Then "Alexa, louder."

"Alexa turn living room up/down" seems to work the side lights in that room. "Alexa, Add three degrees to the temperature" works, although it is doing it in Fahrenheit whilst everything is set to Celsius here.

And Alexa hasn't gone rogue yet and ordered something on-line, because a TV programme told it to. "Alexa, buy [my product] with one-click". Only a matter of time before it happens.

Mainly good. Then to ask "Alexa, What is the Prime Directive?"

Bizarrely, that works as well.