Non Disclosure Agreement : Brexit, Borders and UK International Trade Relations

The upper layers of the new Cabinet have now been selected. I achieved a moderately good hit rate with my predictions, and although I'd suggested that Brexit was multi-part, the formality of it in the Mrs. May setup is sharper than I might have envisaged.

Critics appear to be saying that the new Cabinet is quite right-wing. If true, then it is at odds with the fairness test logic of May's first statements from the podium outside Number 10.

Her words seemed to be about inclusion and the jettisoning of the old privileged Eton chums and Notting Hill set. She used the Unionist word as well, which looked to be a grab across some of Labour's turf. I'll assume her honesty in these opening words.

How it will all work in practice leaves plenty of questions.

• The two part Brexit team drives two of the main elements - exit and trade. The third component related to borders doesn't seem to have the same emphasis?
• Boris Johnston (F.Off) is the potential third member of that group and is usually shown in the middle in TV photo reportage. A better option might be to simply put him on planes and send him a long way away?
• It also begs a few questions about whether Johnston is capable of operating under instruction?
• The two top Brexiteers are sensible positioned to ensure that Brexit has Brexit people running it. Some of the things that David Davis has said/written already might be at odds with how things work, although this might be genuinely about being an 'unreasonable man' in order to better negotiate?
• Interviewers keep asking detailed Brexit questions. If it is to be a proper negotiation, then some things will need to be kept quiet. I think Angela May understands this, but there's a few loose cannons around. Like in big business, a need for some confidentiality agreements, non-disclosures or similar. Some overt words about talking to press and embargoed content would not go amiss. Not the Official Secrets Act, which would be seen as too State specific.
• Hammond as Chancellor is a good idea. An agenda to borrow cheap money and develop strong infrastructure is finally in play, although that Hinckley 'Osborne easy picking' might be a bad decision and blow up (not literally because it will never be finished). The erstwhile ideology of free markets needs to be tempered by acquiring some proper industrial strategy. Hopefully Hammond has the nous to look beyond Osborne's Treasury fundamentalism before jumping?
• Some of the telly commentators are already saying that driving Brexit alone is a big enough agenda topic. I disagree and think that the added tracks of driving infrastructure, industry and non-London all seem like sensible and parallel tasks. Some are quite intermingled with what happens to UK as a new style of trading nation.
• There's some substantial re-organisations in the mix too. The logistics can't be allowed to impeded progress, it should not be about deckchair positioning. There's also a worry here similar to that cartoon showing the multiple office block for Brexit people at a cost of -er- £350m per week.
• Jeremy Hunt is probably on borrowed time. I guess that he wasn't the first choice for the ongoing NHS position and that he will need to do something spectacular to stay in position.
• Many commentators are lamenting Gove's departure. He gets portrayed as intelligent and as a reformer. I'll give him some credit for parts of Justice, but he messed up Education and it will take ages to unravel the damage. And his miscreant performance throughout the recent campaigns suggest that he should be kept a long way from power.
• Some people have been fooled by Osborne. Among other things they say he had a strong fiscal policy and promoted the Northern Powerhouse. I don't think so. His focus on austerity helped create the wreckage and was instrumental in creating hardships. His high visibility appearances around the country to unveil new locomotive nameplates or put a brick into a wall were accompanied by opportunistic speeches which re-used the same funds over and over again. Too many half-truths.
• I mentioned loose cannons. Letwin could be one. He's probably annoyed that his football has been taken away and now he's sounding off to the media about the lack of UK negotiators for the E.U. thing. I know he was part of Cameron's brain in the old setup, but someone needs to tell him to put a lid on it.
• A largely new team also needs to develop personal networks and because of the whole E.U. exit process, these relationships will need to extend far and wide. Just about all of the Cabinet should have a concerted role to play in that area. Work it.
  

At present we have to assume that this team knows what they want to do and are purposeful enough to drive it because we shamefully have no credible opposition. The Labour tail chasing continues and a decision won't pop out until late September. If Mrs May asks her A Team to work through the full summer then we could be much further along with some developed ideas.

should I update the 2008 iMac?

I'm using the secondary iMac today (as pictured - except I've gone all cordless) because the main one is still being fixed. It's still a lovely machine and was the main system for about four years.

The repair shop phoned with some interesting news. Apparently my broken 2012 iMac gets (Yippee) a free service replacement of the fusion drive.

My older iMac is from 2008 and I hadn't bothered to update it for El Capitan until now. It still works okay, although the disk is slow compared with the newer model. Curiously the whole machine is gradually speeding up as it sorts itself out, However, I'm thinking about a further upgrade of the innards for this one, to solid state disk.

It may sound bonkers, but I have a feeling that this more modest machine would get a new lease of life from such an update. I updated my Thinkpad with SSD ages ago and it was so much faster afterwards.

I've taken the 2008 iMac to bits once before. Interestingly, the older 3 cm thick iMacs are a lot more accessible than the newer 'thin' ones. The magnetic glass screen was a brilliant idea. So on the older machine, I think I could do the SSD change myself.

Not until after the other one returns though.

Thursday Thirteen: Mac panic attack edition, requiring new fusion drive.

• An unexpected gap today. There'd normally be a computer in that spot.
• Instead, it got 'the clicks'.
• That's the tiny ticking sound that indicates there is something wrong with the disk.
• It actually had a panic attack. You don't see them very often on a Mac.
• Fortunately, I backup everything to at least a couple of other places.
• It now needs a new fusion drive. I've replaced drives in most of the Macs at some point.
• This one looks particularly tricky because of the glued glass and bonded screen behind which sits all the gubbins. My other iMac is easier because the front glass is held on with magnets.
• So this one has gone to the repair place instead.
• It should come back with a new pristine version of El Capitan.
• It means I'll have to reinstall all the software, which can be a licence headache.
• Maybe it's a good opportunity to prune a few items.
• Meanwhile, I'll have to use something else.
• So, below is a picture of the highly rare and least popular of all Mac messages, following a kernel panic and meaning something probably hardware related has just crashed.
  

margin of possibilities

I was reading this paper from the farm shop today and noticed a small article about an Italian medieval manuscript, where a 14th-15th Century child had drawn in the margins.

The University of York has been getting child psychologists to help identify the picture which they say could be a human figure and cow or horse.

Bananas, I say (or more likely banane), it's obvious to me that the item on the right is a horse in chain mail armour and that the item on the left is the knight, with one of those squared off suits of armour.

The way the knight is smiling and has big eyes, I'd say it was the child artist's father, too.

don't ask me what I want it for...

I received one of those fake SMS Tax Rebate messages today on my phone. Complete with the link to a form where I could have given away all my banking details.

The SMS was from TAX OFFICE and unlike most spam, it didn't have any typos.

I briefly checked the gov.uk website, which explained that gov.uk do indeed send some text messages about certain types of situation. Not this one, methinks.

There was also a place to link through to report the potential fraud.

I clicked through and filled in the police Actionfraud forms although it didn't actually ask me for information about the incoming phone number or the outgoing link. I'm assuming that the information is therefore used for statistical purposes rather than detection.

I decided to also log it to whocalledme.co.uk, where, sure enough, the number was recognised as a scam. As, indeed, it was also recognised on moneysavingexpert, where it has been reported since 2009.

another train to Transcentral?

I also checked out the ADPRiotTour exhibit at the Royal Academy, presented by one-time KLF-er Jimmy Cauty. A six foot square container, most casual visitors were walking past it. I stopped to look through the little holes drilled in the sides.

It shows a modelled microcosm of a dystopian Britain, with some kind of police intervention after a major unidentified event. High visibility jackets abound, mingled with flashing lights. All in 1/87 (HO) scale.

The section in the container shows 'The Bridge'* which links two other larger pieces, currently touring the UK, exhibiting in car parks and similar.

I suppose the ADP (Aftermath Dislocation Principle) represents a possible future hidden in plain sight and glimpsed only by a few.

* ancient KLF comment "to the bridge, to the bridge, to the bridge now"

deck shuffling time

Time to speculate on the new Prime Minister's new Cabinet ahead of the media which is still reeling from today's events. Poor Labour are getting pushed right down the news at the moment.

I took the existing Parliament list, culled a few names and moved a few more around to get a sense of what it could look like.

There's a few interesting promotions as well as one or two potentially interesting losses. It's quite a large table for this blog, with 32 or so rows and about 4 columns covering Role, Current, New and Gone.

It obviously includes the new Secretary of State for Brexit. I'll speculate between Chris Grayling and Phillip Hammond, although I suppose Hammond will end up as Chancellor?

The Brexit thing is really multiple roles - at least one for exit, another for ongoing trade negotiations and another for border questions. Conventionally it should be a SuperProject with the relevant Ministries providing support.

As for Home Secretary, I'm guessing Theresa May will hand it along to Amber Rudd. Then a new Leader of the House to free up Grayling. I'll punt for Priti Patel.

It all leads to my speculations for promotions for Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Chris Grayling, Liz Truss (Where Amber Rudd was previously) and Priti Patel.

Then there's finding a role for Andrea Leadsom?

And a few other questions:

Would we get a new Deputy Prime Minister like the role that John Prescott used to play? Would it be necessary to keep George Osborne in a role? A few gaps emerge when others move up to take new responsibilities - like Foreign Secretary. I'd rather remove any over-entitled schoolboys who have treated government as a toy.

However much I'd like it, I can't see a move to shift Gove from Justice. If Crabb goes from the huge DWP, who would make a replacement? Don't say Jeremy Hunt. He'd be on my list of exits.

And that's my gaps: Justice (post Gove), DWP (post Crabb- please not Hunt), FCA (no good ideas - just one bad one).

Health could be taken over by Jane Ellison - moving up from the Under Secretary role.

Then there's the question of the Cabinet Office. Surely there's a better plan for Minister for Government Policy than Oliver Letwin? Wait - maybe that could be Leadsom?

There will also be some that want to ditch Whittingdale and possibly replace him with Johnston, although I'd be inclined to let Boris drift away from power and perhaps invoke his US citizenship?

All speculation, but interesting to see how it plays over the next few days.

Oh, okay here's my list (only click it if you really want to read it)...


And breathe.

fizz crackle

No technology at the moment. Even my fitbit has temporarily given up. Pass the fizz.

blocking out the sound

The Conservative leadership thing is now set to drag on for months and I'm thinking of ways to block out the sound.

The marked difference between the two seldom seen together candidates is that one appears to be talking about results (a good thing) and the other is mainly shown talking about themselves (less operationally focused). I can't tell whether this is because of the press or because of their own disposition.

So some noise suppression required until things settle down. That's where my vintage etymotic EP4S headphones come in. For years they are my weapon of choice when travelling because they are a) amazingly high fidelity (does that term even exist nowadays?) and b)block out external sound.

I use them on flights because they pack down really small (same space as iPhone headset) but are brilliant for removing jet airplane sounds without needing noise cancelling gadgetry. Using just my BA miles, I've probably taken them to the moon and back.

But here's the thing. No surprise that the wires are now frayed and I really need to replace them. It turns out that I should send them back to the manufacturer in America to get this done and they re-calibrate the headphones at the same time.

It could seem like overkill for a pair of headphones (nowadays referred to as IEMs - In Ear Monitors!), but I'll probably do it. That way I might get some more decades of use from them.

And block the jet engine roar of bickering politicians.

Thursday Thirteen, with some redaction

1. Notebooks: It was fellow blogger Nikki-Ann who re-inforced that it's a good idea to keep notes for blog entries.
2. Evernote: I usually keep my notes in Evernote, which runs on just about everything. I can even talk to it via my watch and it seems to know what I'm saying. All a roundabout way to get to this rather random Thursday Thirteen.
3. Leaked memos and emails: Kind of ties in with the note-taking theme, although for a single politician to have two plausibly deniable leaks when trying for a leadership position, both aimed unerringly at opponents. Well. Too much co-incidence?

4. Knife tricks: I'll admit that I almost believed Penfold Gove when he was dispatching Boris.
5. Gone Gopher: But at least we won't have to listen to him trying to be a leader now, although there's new clouds around one of the remaining two candidates
6. Tax specialists: Why is it so difficult to find people with relatively clear back stories? I can understand the unreliable CVs. Its other things: No off-shore property trusts (*cough* Bandal), no specialist assistance from close relatives with taxation matters(*cough* de Putron)? Perhaps it comes with the turf?

7. Rearranging the UK: I finally understood the plan to re-arrange the UK post Brexit. South West trains have leaked the plan early. The whole country is to be pivoted around the Isle of Wight, which will become the closest point to France. The new South West rail map shows the revised configuration.
8. Containment It is quite difficult to stay on top of all the moving pieces now, with that oft uttered "It'll all work itself out".
9. General Sir John Hackett: Years ago, I read his novel, which was around the theme of containment, too many simultaneous events, which in his story led to outbreak of war.
10. Chilcot: The Iraq war doesn't have as many moving parts as the one in the novel. The report has just been released, some seven years after it was started. It reminds me of the old maxim about "I didn't have enough time to write you a short report, so I've written you a long one".
11. Forensic detailing vs Analysis: The challenge with the report is that the Executive summary is 186 pages long. It doesn't have a fast read introduction, but instead unpacks the series of events. Inevitably people look for the one liner. Whatever.
12. Girl on a Train: Was one of the best selling books of 2015, with probably about a million copies in the UK. Let's call it £10 million revenue. That's about the same amount of revenue that Chilcot and his merry band of consultants have turned over in the time that have been producing that report.
13. Crawford: I want to see the treatment of the Blair/Bush document from 2002 (preceding the Crawford, Texas meeting) which scripts their subsequent meeting and sets up the position of Blair in support of Bush. It was 15 months before the war was declared and seems to be somewhere in Volume 5.

Wordless Wednesday

My re-imagining of Marina Abramović at the Royal Academy during Summer Exhibition.

(Zatorski + Zatorski foreground, Gilbert and George background)

cute kittens and brexit revelations

Despite the internet being made of kittens, theres's still that strange gravitational pull to the ongoing Brexit saga. I'll keep it staccato today.

• There's the sound of lawyers cranking up to make money from the Article 50 triggering/no triggering.
• Johnston is back today, shouting from the sidelines. By using Gove as a flimsy excuse to not stand, I suggest he has lost that voice.
• Gove keeps talking about morality, like he hasn't just betrayed at least two of his buddies.
• Speculation that Gove's moves are assisted by a) journo wife b) fine wine c)Dominic Cummings.
• The Osborne excuse: He's needed a way to get out of the austerity plan that didn't work. Now he is using it.
• Andrea Leadsom's Jersey buy-to-let and trust fund accounting is surfacing, manipulated by her same-party rivals.
• No Plan: They've given the next moves team to ex Mr 'Poll Tax' Letwin who has so much dodgy form it's laughable.
• The Opposition are on hold until after the disgustingly delayed Chilcot report, when Corbyn or his acolytes can speak about Blair.
• Post-Chilcot is when the Labour leadership challenge properly kicks in.
• Both Labour and Tory are adding membership in the lead-up to their elections. No 'cooling-in' period to prevent ballot stuffing?
• When Corbyn wins the Labour leadership vote the party will split into two.
• Farage completes the parade of quitters; easier now to work it from the sidelines?
• The No-plan Plan: no wonder there's increased talk of delaying the Article 50 button press.
• The trouble with a quick election is both voter fatigue and an open invitation for even the headless UKIP to gain large numbers of seats from Labour.