a day at the races

My snapshot from Doncaster horse races on Saturday.

The gambling from the proceeds of my novel 'The Triangle' have completely stopped. The change to the odds of the National Lottery scam provoked this revised strategy.

Although horse racing odds could be better, at least we had a nice meal, some fizz and a proper sense of occasion, instead of the ever dwindling production values of the lottery.

My own occasional lotto prizes degenerated to becoming mere entries in the next week's lottery.

In the mathematics:

Selecting 6 numbers from 59 is 59 factorial divided by 6 factorial:

i.e. (59! / 6!) = 45,057,474

Now selecting 3 right numbers from the above...

Three numbers from 6, in any order:

(6! / (3!*3!)) = 20

And any three other numbers:

(53! / (3!*50!))

multiply together to give the total combinations gives:
(6! / (3!*3!)) * (53! / (3!*50!))

=

(20) * (23,426)

= 468,520 combinations.

So that's 468,520 chances in 45,057,474 to get three numbers right (around 1 in 96).

Now do that two weeks in a row (i.e a so called 'win', followed by another from the subsequent 'winning' entry):

This is where the springs burst.

And even if they didn't, it would still only give me another ticket for a third week.

To get even close to a decent prize, the odds on 4 numbers are now (excuse my shorthand) 6C4*53C2 = 20,670 choices or for 5 numbers it moves to 6C5 * 53C1 = 316 choices (1 in 7.5 million - twice the odds to be struck by lightning). Maybe £20 for 4 numbers? Pah!

But enough of the mathematics.

It should be immediately obvious from my pix that the Doncaster horse racing was more fun to watch, even if I didn't really have a clue about most of it.

And no, I didn't win anything - although the odds were a lot better. Although, I should have bet on the jockey who arrived by helicopter.

volare oh oh

A few years ago, outside the Dorchester, there was a piece of artwork called "Vroom, Vroom". It changed from time to time, but the two versions I particularly remember included a Fiat 500 and at a different time a Lambretta.

Although classed as artwork, it was an inadvertent reminder of two cheeky forms of Italian transport. Fast forward to now, and the recent sale of the green Ford Ka. We'd advertised it on Gumtree and had a selection of Gumtraders try to get the price knocked down before even looking at the vehicle. You know that feeling when being 'gamed'?

In the end we took it to a local dealer, who offered a fair trade price. He promptly sold it for a greater than 100% markup before we'd even paid the cheque into the bank.

Still, not bad for a still fully functional 15 year old motor.

Time for the replacement vehicle (Italian), so where better to use for inspiration than that same area around Mayfair and Park Lane?

We are just coming back into the proper London supercar season marked by all the cars being reshipped from abroad to the London streets and the vogue colour at the moment seems to be a sort of baby blue. In car speak that's 'Volare'.

Whether its a Bugatti,

a Lamborghini, or a Koenigsegg (here clamped outside Harrods/La Duree)...


They all seem to have one thing in common. That Volare Blue colour. These supercars may all live in underground car parks and airport loading bays, but when they are out in their small London habitat between Mayfair, Knightsbridge and Chelsea Bridge, the on message colour is that blue.

So the Ka replacement isn't silver, black, white or red.

Oh No.

Oh Volare, nel blu dipinto di blu.

nom de guerre for a class war?

<plug>
A fellow blogger has just released a new novel about teaching in the UK. It's under a nom de plume, and the description below features a link to the UK Amazon page.

I haven't read it yet, although I've downloaded it from Kindle. I'm sure it will be worth a read. So c'mon... Give it a go!
</plug>

whats he building in there?

Okay, not my neighbours exactly, but still part of the northern project. It reminds me of an extreme version of that Tom Waits track.

I suppose the picture needs to be a bit more grainy?

waiting for the orange double suction

I've been using some of my 'investment tools' recently. I call them investments because of the informal rule that they mainly sit in the garage and are only very occasionally used.

It's the strange economics of buying a labour saving device, using it for a few minutes and then putting it away for sometimes years at a time. A possible trade-off would be to rent something, but as any fule kno, the tools available are always one less than the tools needed to complete the job.

Last year, even the professionals installing the kitchen showed examples of the rule, needing to get extra bibs n' bobs to complete things. On a couple of triumphant occasions, I was even able to supply the missing item from the dormant supplies in the garage.

This time I'm waiting for the delivery of one of those suction devices. This is for the northern project, rather than something at home.

Hopefully the above picture does justice to this double-suction-cup handle, which can be used to pull plinths from fitted kitchens.

It will probably be used for around 5 minutes and then join the other investments.

I suppose it will go into the same tool-bag as the carpet puller (20 minutes use) and that locking adjustable wrench (20-30 minutes use across many years).

voting for a discredited experiment?

Aside from the well-discussed London mayor elections, there's been local council elections and police commissioner elections throughout many parts of the country.

I took a peek at the websites for the PCC candidates for one of the areas, ahead of the actual election day. Some say that the PCC mechanism is a discredited experiment. I decided to take a quick look. Of five candidates in my selected area, only three had any relevant content loaded. Even the incumbent PCC's content pointed to a Strategic Plan, which catastrophically failed to download (this was a week before the actual election).

Even by these limited actions I suspect I did more than many potential voters to attempt to find out what was happening. I screen grabbed the incomprehensible .NET error message and sent it to the then current PCC's email.

The next day I received a direct mail from the Office of the Police and Crime Commissioner, which did send me some working links to the things I'd been seeking. Still, it was a 'round the houses' approach to getting something tangible.

The turnout for this PCC vote was much higher than last time's extremely paltry one (something like 15% now up to around 35%). When a single mid-term re-election was called in one area, the stand-alone voting actually dropped to a 10.6% turnout.

I originally thought of this role as a kind of 'jobs for the boys' (actually, last time it was 6 women and 35 men). Based upon my rather unscientific attempt to get further documents, the old criticism that there was too little information to make an informed decision still seems to hold.

Perhaps this stealth uplift is part of an increased politicisation of the roles?

I suspect people have gone out to vote for their councils and seen there is an extra PCC paper to complete. Scan the list of largely unknown names and use their favourite party name (Conservative, Labour etc.) as the only guide. With nothing else to go on, that's the way the votes have turned. Of course the individually elected commissioners have to say they are non-partisan.

We shall see.

money

It is unusual to get cheques nowadays. Even more so to get a cheque issued to me direct from the Government Banking Service account number 10000002.

What would I need to do to get one from account 10000001? Who runs these accounts?

Who operates them? the sort code 23 suggests it is really Barclays, although the Freedom of Information disclosure says that the banks involved are RBS and intriguingly, Citigroup, of Park Avenue, Manhattan...

The same FOIA commentary says that information about government banking has absolute exemptions under section 2(3) of the FOIA. This means that even public interest arguments for and against disclosure don't need to be considered.

Still, at least I've got my money, and on a very interesting cheque.

red house

We stopped off at the Red House, over yonder, as a gap in the micro-moving. Taking car-loads of stuff across the swing-bridge and into a new post-code.

Getting to the front door of the old place was complicated enough. Despite being in the car park below, the traffic system means it is a 1.5 mile trip to get to around to the front, and it involves a road with 'no traffic' signs along it. See the same cobbled street in one of last year's promo shots to get the idea.

So after about four or five trips, the chance of a Red House pie and pint was too much to resist.

Before going back over yonder 'cross the swing bridge and up the hill. (Bb major)

sleeping on the road

I've been up and down a few long roads recently, including this one, near to where I found a spot to lay my head whilst wrapped in a sleeping bag.

No ordinary sleeping bag; it's what seems like a lifelong companion.

It's called a Strone and has a Mountain Equipment logo on it, although it is too old to be in any catalogue. Despite that, it still looks the part even down to the tapered shape and hood popular in modern sleeping bags with names like Helium, Titan and Aurora.

They, and indeed the Strone would not look out of place in the sleeping quarters in a space movie. Although, it's fair to say my Strone has a glossy external finish, which is surely due for a comeback.

I remember originally getting it in one of those camping shops just off of The Strand. My memory tells me it was in John Adams Street, although nowadays more of the outdoorsy shops have moved to the other side of the Strand, probably into bigger premises.

Anyway, that sleeping bag (LH) and its companion (RH) have been carried to and slept in through the mountains of the Swiss Alps, Serbian Cities, Greek island beaches and many points in between.

This time the comfort of a carpeted floor with real underlay meant an easy night's sleep, as well as a progressive upgrade as a bed arrived, followed by a compressed mattress which somehow boinged back to full size when its bag was opened.

using MiFi whilst waiting for broadband

The distant building project has also created a few technical challenges.

The people from Openreach are just sorting out the manhole covers and wires so that providing an interim internet connection has required ingenuity.

I'm using a MiFi solution. This uses a Huawei black box, which takes a regular 4G SIMM card, finds a signal and then works as a hotspot. Easy-peasy to set up - the hardest part was finding out how to fit the SIMM card (RTFM).

It also has an ethernet connection, so I was able to hook it up to a Mac Time Capsule and then broadcast a nice strong secure Wifi signal as well as providing an across-the-wire ethernet link to the internet.

It's a bit pricey to use at around £10 per Gigabyte, but will do nicely until the regular broadband arrives.

scratching a living

I've received an email from Companies House about new rules for People with Significant Control (PSC).

It says I'll need to create a new confirmation statement and ensure that the company register and SIC codes for my company are up-to-date.

It adds that from 30 June, I won't need to complete an annual return (which was free to complete) but will instead need to file at least once a year a new confirmation statement - for which I will now have to pay a fee.

It's all to do with the 275 page Small Business, Enterprise and Employment Act, which is designed to help UK business compete, get finance to create jobs, grow, innovate and export.

I found the relevant PSC 'Company Transparency' information in section 80, on page 60 of the report, just after a section about Destination Information related to education.

I'm not convinced that the document is the best example of crystal clear writing and when I ran 'drivel defence' against the 'Transparency' section it gave an average sentence length of 37 words. The longest sentence in the section was 137 words. Of 65 sentences, 47 were longer than 20 words.

But then I notice that the introduction to the Act was only one sentence. 903 characters or 133 words. Perhaps the Queen’s most Excellent Majesty, the Lords Spiritual and Temporal, and the Commons in this present Parliament assembled need to tighten up on their writing style? I believe they are about to stop using parchment.

(Average sentence length of this post = 20.25 words)

a frontier click into the past

The car is clean again after its time spent on a building site. There was a team of about five people cleaning it and even in true pit-stop style it still took them about five minutes to get it nice and sparkly.

There was a frontier land feeling to the time on-site. I was staying at the very end of the current addressable world and even the delivery drivers needed piloting in for the last part of the journey.

And a fascinating thing is that this is one of those parts where in Google there's a proper time machine effect.

The main roads get updated more recently than the side roads, so it is still possible to jump from 'Now' (well, April 2015) across a one-click boundary into 'Then' (2009) and see the striking difference in the terrain.

There's plenty of examples of this sprinkled around Google Maps. Just find a newish building site and then look around and there will almost certainly be some of the older land behind.