Friday, 14 October 2016

designated survivors of campaign trail

I’ve been watching Designated Survivor (24 meets The West Wing meets House of Cards - I don’t have time to explain etc.) and that dark 2015 German movie 'Er ist wieder da’ which both, in different ways, play out alternative politically motivated futures and the effects on the political class, media class and the populace.

One is set in America, the other in Germany. They both explore the reactions of ordinary people when pushed into unusual situations. We now have an unusual situation here in the UK, with the Brexit process running, based upon ordinary peoples’ votes. We’ll soon be able to see how the Americans handle their next unusual situation after their General Election.

What does voting for Trump now achieve? Large areas of the US will automatically vote for him in any case.

However, if the Republican Party has more-or-less rejected him, and he already hints at running vendettas against people who don’t agree, then the US could conceivably get someone without a party.

An independent loose cannon in charge of the United States? Maybe it's an Apprentice reality TV show trait to keep loose cannons in the team?

The US result is mainly down to a few states too, Florida (29 seats), Ohio (18 seats), Georgia (16 seats) and North Carolina (15 seats). The candidates consider there’s no point in visiting the dead-cert states nor the unchangeable ones. It seems almost bonkers that the whole political machine slows to a crawl for 25% of the time (one year in every four) whilst this strangely distracting process takes place.

It’s also interesting to look at the mainly central casting-like range of Republicans that have been seen off by Trump in his journey. Trump has passed 25 Republican competitors including Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul and Carly Fiorina.

Does this mean there were 25 less-suitable Republican candidates? It’s legally unchallengeable for the next month, but may re-appear when the results are known.

Using current Politico poll positioning, I offer a few unscientific percentages.
  • Trump wins and the Republicans regroup around him 5%.
  • Trump wins and the Republicans disown him 10%.
  • Trump wins and the Republican Party splits 10%.
  • Trump wins and somehow gets deposed 10%.
  • Hillary wins and Trump declares the results rigged 35%.
  • Hillary wins and Trump somehow goes quietly 5%?
  • Hillary wins and something else happens 5%?

That's me interpreting the swing state Politico battleground percentages, which still leave about 15% unaccounted.

And I'm wondering who will be the designated survivors after the results are in.

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