Wednesday, 17 February 2016

goofing around with apple

iClone 6
As part of my investment experiment, I've added a few Apple shares to the portfolio. I noticed that I'd already got some as part of a fund, but I thought a direct punt would be interesting, especially as they are at a lowish figure at the moment.

I've illustrated them here with a random sprinkling of other well-known shares across a 52-week spectrum. The Apple shares are clearly toward the low end of their 52 week value - although of course they could keep going down.

Some of the pundits are saying that Apple has run out of ideas because they don't keep churning out new iShiny things every few days. I'll disagree. Sometimes it's the other moves that need to be watched. The US Justice Department invoking the 1789 All Writs Act to hack an iPhone is getting all of the attention. Yet tomorrow Apple launches its Apple Pay system into China. Here in the UK the 'tap to pay' thing is already fairly established, whether with NFC payment cards, Apple Pay or even London's Oyster.

I predict there will be some easy picking press stories about some things not working but Apple will effectively be second in the Chinese payments market only to Alibaba, who are the Chinese 'Amazon equivalent'. Of course, I've really no idea whether any of this will make any difference to share prices but I suppose if Apple's shares go down further I'd be tempted to buy some more.

Many would say that China itself has a long way to go before their own stock market makes any sense. Currently their volatile stock market appears to behave like more or less a betting shop. McKinsey and Economist analysts reckon that the middle class in China will grow from 47m to 470m across the 10 years from 2010 to 2020.

If they are right, then the middle class numbers approach the same size as all of the continental EU. And their aspirational phone is, yes, the iPhone instead of a a goophone copy.

That's my 2014 Chinese goophone at the top of the post, by the way - click left a frame to see the back of it. It's useful to briefly bring out in a pub for entertainment - it runs Android as well as an iOS Shell. No wonder Apple have been designing various form factors to include lower cost options and beat the clones - as well as quietly adding the 'Pay' feature.

Anyway, I had a play around with the trend graphs for Apple's shares and although the price is currently going down, it looks to me as if it should soon be heading north again.

And that's before R&D intense Apple launches its attempt at a feasible Twitter competitor, its TV-streaming service and its car technology. Not forgetting the home automation and some sort of wearable technology that actually works.

But then again, I didn't do so well with my National Lottery gambles, so perhaps this will be no better?

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