Friday, 7 May 2010
My prior calculations were that we'd end with a hung Parliament with a slight Conservative lead (the lead came out a bit larger than my calculation). I'm sure the smart people in the back offices of the various parties had this scenario as a prime outcome, whatever their public face.
Now we may go into a weekend of speculation, somewhat like the long gaps between news nuggets yesterday evening, where pundits tried to extrapolate single data points and were almost relieved to find the second story about the locked out voters.
- So Cameron says he has the most votes (more than 10 million) and should become PM with a minority lead party.
- Clegg (more than 6 million votes) has previously agreed that the biggest vote should get the next chance to straighten things (ie Tory)
- Brown (more than 8 million votes) won't want to give in that easily and may dangle proportional representation in Clegg's direction to try to create an alliance.
It sets the scene for 48 hours of pre-rehearsed deal-making and changes to weekend television schedules.
Its anybody's guess, so maybe there will be pressure for another budget, a lightweight reform of the voting model "Let the people decide in a Referendum?" and the thought that we'll have to go through this all over again in a few months time.