Monday, 18 May 2009
more UK election 11 July 2009 rumours started
If the Queen has quietly asked Gordon Brown to dissolve Parliament, then we need to work out the timetable. There's usually at least 30 days from dissolution to an election, which rules out most of June.
July has only been used once since 1918 and August and September have never been used because of the summer holidays and the way it would weird out the results.
So theoretically, the most likely month is October, which has been used the most times since 1918; six times in October, followed by five in May and four in June.
Now, if the level of upset was maximum and pitchforks marched upon Westminster, then a July date is still possible, but would require rather a lot of gearing up in a short time. I'm also wondering if a Speaker is needed during the dissolution process, because even that role seems a trifle fragile at the moment.
Technically, Gordon still has another year, with the last valid date of the current Parliament being 10 May 2010. Because of dissolution procedures, the election wouldn't need to be until Thursday 3 June 2010.
So will we get another year of Gordon and Co, or is there election fever in the wind?
We have the Euro elections and a few by-elections in a few days. I'm guessing Brown, Cameron, Clegg and the others are getting into huddles to think about timings and campaigning. In July, it would need to be 4th (oops - sensitive?), 11th or 18th.
And what if the Monarchy did call for the end of the current Parliament instead of it being Gordon's dice roll?